🎯 TUESDAY TARGET: Crude Oil Futures (/CLJ6) | 👇 Reveal the Play
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While the herd obsessively refreshes the news feed for updates on the legal cage match between the DOJ and the Federal Reserve, the real machinery of the state has bypassed the building entirely. By ordering Fannie and Freddie to absorb $200 billion in mortgage paper, the White House has effectively enacted Executive Yield Curve Control. You no longer need a cooperative Fed Chair to lower rates if you can simply weaponize government agencies to nationalize the bid. This is Shadow QE, a direct liquidity injection rendering the central bank’s independence a quaint relic of the past.
This pivot defines a new era where the United States trades the role of global policeman for that of a distressed asset manager. The aggressive bids for Greenland and the forced management change in Venezuela signal a shift to Resource Imperialism. In this framework, securing physical collateral, uranium, heavy crude, rare earths, takes precedence over international decorum. The US is operating like a private equity firm scrambling to secure hard assets to back a diluted currency.
Yet, even the most aggressive takeovers face a reality check. When the President demands U.S. oil majors pour billions into Venezuela to crush prices, and CEOs refuse because the region remains uninvestable, we hit a structural wall. Governments can print money to buy bonds, yet they struggle to mandate capital expenditure against the will of a board. We are entering a volatile mismatch between political mandates and balance sheet reality.
Below, as always, the rest of what’s cooking:
The Backdoor Trade War
A surprise 25% tariff on any nation doing business with Iran sounds like a regional sanction, yet it targets Beijing directly. Since China is the largest buyer of Iranian crude, this policy effectively reopens the trade war without an explicit declaration. Markets treating this as isolated Middle East noise are missing the structural hit to global trade flows. This is a targeted disruption of the Sino-Iranian energy corridor.
Flying Blind on Inflation
The upcoming inflation data is compromised by government shutdown distortions and data collection gaps. We are effectively flying the economic plane with broken instruments, relying on models rather than hard numbers. This statistical fog allows the Fed to claim disinflation continues, even if insurance premiums and tariff costs are rising in the real economy. Policy decisions are now based on estimated realities rather than actual prices.
Retroactive Liquidity Injection
A wave of retroactive tax refunds is about to hit consumer accounts, creating a temporary liquidity flush in the first quarter. This “hidden stimulus” could artificially prop up retail spending and sentiment, masking the underlying deterioration in the labor market. Investors betting on an immediate consumer collapse might get run over by this one-time injection of cash. It buys time, even if it does not fix structural insolvency.
Strategic Mineral Hoarding
Australia has initiated a billion-dollar strategic reserve for critical minerals to counter Chinese dominance. This validates the thesis that supply security overrides free market efficiency. Governments are now the buyers of last resort, ensuring that non-Chinese producers of rare earths and antimony enjoy a price floor. Portfolios should recognize that these commodities are now sovereign assets, shielded from standard cyclical downturns by national security mandates.
THE WEEK: Distorted Data & Bank Decks
Today’s CPI and Wednesday’s PPI dominate the narrative, though likely skewed by shutdown-related data gaps. The true reality check arrives with Q4 earnings from major money centers like JPMorgan, testing whether the consumer is resilient or running on fumes. Add in Retail Sales and Friday’s options expiration (OPEX), and we face a collision between murky macro data and a market priced for perfection.
Traditional Tactics for this Tape
With volatility priced for nirvana despite nuclear institutional friction, portfolio insurance is the best value on the board. We favor rotating capital from passive tech into Production for Security themes, defense, uranium, and industrial cyclicals, that align with the fiscal dominance regime.
Do not guess. But do reach out. Let’s build a capital-efficient yet risk-managed strategy from the option chain up.
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TUESDAY TARGET: Crude Oil Futures (/CLJ6)
We believe oil is perfectly priced / slightly overpriced, even when accounting for current geopolitical risks.
Note: Crude Oil Futures offer liquidity to size the trade smaller by narrowing the spread width.
Not an official trade entry, just food for thought. Official trade entries for your paper trading accounts are available in the Trade Alerts section.
All our recent trades and the reasoning behind them can be found in the Trade Alerts section. Think of it as a behind-the-scenes look into our process, so you can decide if it’s worth adopting (or adapting) in your own strategy.
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Tuesday Target is written by Juri von Randow — founder of MacroDozer, professional investor, and trading mentor — delivering institutional-grade trade ideas, market insights, and strategy every week for serious1 investors.
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