🎯 TUESDAY TARGET: Brazil (EWZ) | 👇 Reveal the Play
Every bull market runs on invisible insurance. This one carries three policies, and two just lapsed.
Policy one: the Musk put. The belief that anything he touches only goes up. SpaceX, the largest IPO in history, now trades below its issue price after insiders unloaded on retail, with an August unlock set to triple the float. Faith, meet gravity.
Policy two: the scarcity put. The belief that compute stays rare forever, so the trillion-dollar data-center spree can’t miss. Then Kimi K3 dropped: a Chinese model brushing the frontier on a fraction of the hardware, selling intelligence at dollar-store prices. The country that flooded the world with plastic toys has moved on to cognition, and the capex cathedral suddenly needs an appraisal.
Policy three: the Pentagon put. The only one still trading. Nine straight nights of strikes on Iran, Hormuz traffic down to a trickle, a presidential choice between a ten-day truce and full-scale war due any day, and equities yawn, because everyone assumes the White House folds before oil breaks the S&P. Maybe. But when the market’s last backstop is one man’s pain threshold, you have quietly become the underwriter, and nobody pays you premium.
Below, as always, all you need to know and not a word more:
Tariffs, Second Front
While Hormuz hogs the headlines, Washington slapped an additional 50% tariff on selected Canadian goods, USMCA (NAFTA) products included, effective August 19, alongside aluminium tariff discounts for onshoring pledges. Ottawa talks retaliation and treaty modernization. Bonus round: reports suggest the administration may restrict Chinese AI models while Beijing weighs export controls of its own.
Great Numbers, Nothing Left to Buy
US banks just posted record 17% corporate loan growth, a 19% return on tangible equity, and squeaky-clean credit, while the Philly Fed outlook hit a five-year high. Morgan Stanley even argues this cycle rhymes with 1997 and 2005, with room left to run. Yet TSM and ASML both delivered stellar beats and promptly sold off. When perfection gets faded, the debate has moved from earnings to multiples.
The Refinery Tells the Truth
Crude chops around the low $80s, yet crack spreads sit at record highs, heating oil and gasoil are breaking out, and European natural gas presses back toward its wartime peaks. Treasuries have started tracking refined products, the stuff that actually feeds inflation. Europe faces a narrow window to refill storage before winter, with Russia holding the valve. Goldman sees Brent above $120 if Hormuz stays shut into Q4.
Britain Tries Something Old
Andy Burnham took Downing Street and surprised everyone by handing the Treasury to John Healey. The program: subsidized energy bills, reindustrialization through public procurement, more council housing; a self-declared new economic model. Gilt yields jumped on arrival. The backdrop makes it spicier: roughly $70–80 billion of take-privates already hollowed out the FTSE 250. Fresh fiscal ambition meets a shrinking equity base.
THE WEEK: Macro Whispers, Micro Shouts
With the Fed silent ahead of July 29 and PCE due next week, the calendar leans European: UK jobs Tuesday, UK inflation Wednesday, a hawkish-tilted ECB Thursday, Japanese CPI and global flash PMIs Friday. Sprinkle in ZEW, weekly ADP, and a $13 billion 20-year auction Wednesday. The real fireworks come from earnings, Alphabet and Tesla Wednesday, both priced for roughly 6% swings, Intel near 13%.
Tactics for this Tape
Trade smaller, hedge smarter. With index volatility artificially cheap, owning optionality beats selling it; protective puts and call-funded collars cost less than they should. Skip the leveraged ETF casino, let earnings prove the AI story before re-grossing, and keep dry powder for the moment correlation snaps. In a gamma-free market, patience pays better than heroics.
Don’t guess. Reach out. Let’s build a capital-efficient yet risk-managed strategy from the option chain up.
Get Rich Overnight with Options? Yeah Right...
TUESDAY TARGET: Brazil (EWZ)
Yes, Brazil again! I don’t pick favorites, the Daily Doze heat map does. Our new quant monster list flags the ticker, the strategy, the whole setup. I just sanity-check the chart.
And the chart plays along: EWZ bled 15% off the April highs, spent six weeks building a floor near 34, and now sits wedged in a tangle of moving averages around 35.50. Tired sellers below, trapped bagholders above; nobody’s winning that fight soon. So we sell the standoff: 31-day iron condor, roughly $1.50 in the pocket, break-evens parked outside the entire summer range. Theta collects rent while Brazil argues with itself.
But hear me: quant backing improves the odds, never removes the risk. The moment those break-evens stop working for you, drop it. No ego, no averaging down, next trade.
Lost? Message me and I’ll walk you through it; no rocket science, the Daily Doze already did the thinking.
This is not an official trade entry, just food for thought. Official trade entries are posted in the Trade Alerts section. Over there, we relentlessly innovate and deliver novel setups.
All our recent trades and the reasoning behind them can be found in the Trade Alerts section. Think of it as a behind-the-scenes look into our process, so you can decide if it’s worth adopting (or adapting) in your own strategy.
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Tuesday Target is written by Juri von Randow — founder of MacroDozer, professional investor, and trading mentor — delivering institutional-grade trade ideas, market insights, and strategy every week for serious1 investors.
🚨 Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance ≠ future results.
If you are only here for the money, look elsewhere. Success requires a dedication to the craft.