🎯 TUESDAY TARGET: Samsara (IOT) | 👇 Reveal the Play
The VIX is taking a nap again, which is always adorable right before the furniture starts moving by itself. Under the surface, leverage is doing push-ups: total return swaps, leveraged ETFs, dealer hedging, zero-day gamblers, and tech vol priced like someone left a rabid fox loose in the options pit.
Look at the weird part. Semis are ripping like the only shovel shop in an AI gold rush. And cash-rich software like Adobe keeps compounding earnings near 40%, growing fatter on the very AI that’s supposedly digging its grave, while the algo shorts it against an apocalypse that never clocks in.
Even gold caught the disease. The old crisis blanket now trades with meme-stock mood swings: war headline down, peace headline up, miners acting like they found a Robinhood account and too much crystal. When the supposed safe haven starts behaving like a bored teenager with leverage, you gotta keep your eyes wide open.
So yes, markets look calm from 30,000 feet. Down here, the pipes are banging, the casino is humming, and every quiet chart has a trapdoor.
Below, as always, all you need to know and not a word more:
Cheap Gas Borrowed Against an Empty Tank
Here’s what the green screens skip: the Strait stays shut until Friday while mines get cleared, and only one brave LNG tanker has slipped through toward India. Most shipowners refuse to sail without proof of safety, and war-risk premiums remain stuck near decade highs. Meanwhile America’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve sits at its lowest level since 1983. The relief is genuine, and also paper-thin.
Chips Sprint, and Chasing Feels Late
Semiconductors ripped roughly 18% in five sessions, with Korean chip exports tracking near 90% growth in the month’s first ten days and memory names printing fresh records. Bulls lean on the late-1990s template, which hints at another 30% of upside ahead. Sprinting in after a move like that feels late, while betting against the hottest theme on earth feels genuinely reckless.
The Largest IPO Cashing Out the Mania
SpaceX rocketed to a $3 trillion valuation after hours, leapfrogging Microsoft, after retail piled in so hard the stock made up 73% of all single-stock buying. Options begin trading next session, and one good squeeze could chase it past Nvidia. Elon becomes the first trillionaire. Squeezing imagination into shares works beautifully, right up until the imagination needs real earnings to back it?
Cheaper Brains Cut in Two Directions
A telling experiment stitched together three cheaper models and beat the flagship offerings outright, landing within 1% of the very best at half the price. The lesson rattling AI investors: intelligence is sliding from scarce and expensive toward abundant and cheap. That feeds more usage and more compute demand, while quietly torching the pricing power that’s supposed to justify trillion-dollar valuations.
Bonds Now Pay You More to Do Nothing
A quiet milestone slipped past most investors: the S&P’s earnings yield, near 3.6%, now sits below the 10-year Treasury at 4.45%. For the first time this cycle, parking cash in a risk-free government bond earns you more than the entire stock index produces in actual profit. Every allocator suddenly has a paid, patient excuse to trim equities and simply wait.
THE WEEK: All Eyes on Wednesday
A packed calendar, but everything funnels into Warsh’s Fed debut Wednesday. Before that, watch May retail sales for signs the consumer is cracking, plus housing starts and industrial production for the growth picture. Overseas, the Bank of Japan is nearly certain to hike to 1.0%, while the RBA holds and the BoE stays put. Juneteenth shutters US markets Friday, thinning liquidity into a long weekend.
Tactics for this Tape
Do not chase every green candle. Volatility is cheap in the index, expensive in tech, and weird in single names. That favors defined-risk options, collars, slightly bearish calendars, and selective premium selling where the move is already emotional. Keep position sizes boring, entries patient, and exits planned before the headline hits.
Don’t guess. Reach out. Let’s build a capital-efficient yet risk-managed strategy from the option chain up.
Get Rich Overnight with Options? Yeah Right...
TUESDAY TARGET: Samsara (IOT)
IOT got cut in half on SaaSpocalypse AI-disruption fear, yet the business keeps beating: Q1 FY27 revenue topped estimates, ARR is nearing $2B at 30% growth, and management raised full-year guidance.
The stock sits in the mid-$30s while analysts target $45. With earnings already cleared until September, we’re playing a slow drift back toward fair value, not a gap.
The structure: a Sep 18 long call fly, buying the 35 and 45 calls and selling two 40s for a 0.76 debit. Risk $76 to make up to $424 if IOT finishes near 40, great risk return, capital efficiency at its best.
Not the most liquid underlying, so use tight limits at entry. On the way to maturity, it will trade more liquid.
This is not an official trade entry, just food for thought. Official trade entries are posted in the Trade Alerts section. Over there, we relentlessly innovate and deliver novel setups.
All our recent trades and the reasoning behind them can be found in the Trade Alerts section. Think of it as a behind-the-scenes look into our process, so you can decide if it’s worth adopting (or adapting) in your own strategy.
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Tuesday Target is written by Juri von Randow — founder of MacroDozer, professional investor, and trading mentor — delivering institutional-grade trade ideas, market insights, and strategy every week for serious1 investors.
🚨 Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance ≠ future results.
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