🎯 TUESDAY TARGET: AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) | 👇 Reveal the Play
For four decades, the mullahs sold the same insurance policy to the world: mess with us, and we shut the Strait. Every pundit bought the pitch. Every energy strategist priced the premium. Every Western capital wrote it into their risk model. Then Iran pulled the trigger, and discovered the rope was tied to their own neck.
Run the numbers. 90% of Iran’s crude exports and 60% of its government revenues flow through that 21-mile stretch of water. Shut it down and Tehran bleeds over $300 million a day while Washington shrugs from a country that now outproduces Russia and Saudi combined as the world’s largest oil and LNG exporter. The chokepoint chokes its architect.
China, Iran’s loyal discount buyer, isn’t smiling either. Beijing was feasting on Iranian crude at $10-$12 a barrel below market, piping cheap sanctioned oil into its plastics machine. That pipe snapped. Now they’re paying Arabian Light premiums, their petrochemicals tethered to American ethane shipments, and gas at $5.60 a gallon against a $17k average wage. Xi arrives at the May summit with a losing hand.
Geography stayed the same. The leverage map got rewritten overnight.
Below, as always, the rest of what’s cooking:
The Streak Snapped
Nasdaq’s 13-session winning streak, the longest stretch since 1992, finally broke on Monday. Coincidence? Not when it pairs with call-volume records, dealer gamma flipping short on any further rally, and single-stock skew collapsing to multi-year lows. Streaks of this magnitude historically resolve higher over 12 months, but the near-term digestion phase could get messy.
Cook Walks, Ternus Inherits
Tim Cook steps aside September 1st. Under his reign, Apple’s market cap went from $350 billion to $4 trillion, a ten-bagger built on share buybacks while revenue barely four-bagged. John Ternus, a hardware lifer, now inherits a company coasting on brand prestige. Whether he actually innovates or simply keeps the repurchase authorization humming is the real test.
Wall Street’s Bull Trap Chorus
When Goldman’s John Flood, Rich Privorotsky, and BofA’s Michael Hartnett all publicly warn of a bull trap in the same week, contrarians start circling. The consensus bear call at market highs usually means the rally extends just enough to burn the late shorts before the real crack. Watch for a final melt-up squeeze into month-end rebalancing.
Retail’s Regulatory Rocket Fuel
FINRA just killed the $25,000 pattern day trading minimum, with SEC approval. Overnight, a huge swath of smaller accounts can day-trade without restriction. Retail favorites are having their best month since November 2020. The MEME ETF is up 56% off March lows. A structural tailwind hiding in plain sight, ignored by institutional desks still obsessed with their macro models.
Software’s Quiet Resurrection
Six weeks ago software was left for dead: AI disruption, margin compression, model commoditization. Last week’s 14% rally in the IGV suggests the obituary was premature. Goldman’s software analyst now argues AI Natives are expanding the total addressable market rather than replacing incumbents, occupying the white space between SaaS silos. The squeeze phase may fade. The re-rating phase could just be starting.
THE WEEK: Earnings Fire Up
Today headlines with March retail sales, Goldman pencils in a 1.0% headline jump mostly on gasoline distortion, alongside Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation hearing. Wednesday brings Tesla earnings and the ceasefire expiry. Thursday delivers global flash PMIs and jobless claims. Friday closes with the final UMich sentiment read and 5-10 year inflation expectations. Fed officials are in blackout ahead of next week’s FOMC. Every data point gets filtered through the rate-cut lens.
Tactics for this Tape
Stay flexible. Pair long tech-leadership exposure with cheap downside protection, implied volatility reset makes it affordable again. Trim the squeeze chasers, add patience.
Don’t guess. Reach out. Let’s build a capital-efficient yet risk-managed strategy from the option chain up.
Get Rich Overnight with Options? Yeah Right...
TUESDAY TARGET: AST SpaceMobile (ASTS)
Speculative play: when a failed rocket mission can’t even crack an elevated share price, the pain trade usually sits above, not below. The iron fly is the interesting route here, those two short 120 calls finance the structure and neutralize theta burn until roughly 30 days before expiration. You get paid to wait, risk is defined, and post-failure IV is still bid. Size it small in case it rolls over from here.
These trades are inspirational, not prescriptive. I’m not a directional trader, the goal is to showcase structures and strategies for different setups.
This is not an official trade entry, just food for thought. Official trade entries are posted in the Trade Alerts section. Over there, we relentlessly innovate and deliver more novel setups.
All our recent trades and the reasoning behind them can be found in the Trade Alerts section. Think of it as a behind-the-scenes look into our process, so you can decide if it’s worth adopting (or adapting) in your own strategy.
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Tuesday Target is written by Juri von Randow — founder of MacroDozer, professional investor, and trading mentor — delivering institutional-grade trade ideas, market insights, and strategy every week for serious1 investors.
🚨 Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance ≠ future results.
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