🎯 TUESDAY TARGET: NVIDIA (NVDA) | 👇 Reveal the Play
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The market has developed a fascinating immunity to reality. Carrier strike groups maneuver in the Middle East, bunker-busters drop, and the Supreme Court blows up the administration’s flagship tariff policy. Everyone anticipates a rush for the exits. Equities remain pretty unfazed. Decades of central bank sedation have thoroughly fried the market’s risk sensors, reducing physical-world powder kegs to minor background noise.
Take the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling. Financial media frames the defeat of these emergency trade levies as a chaotic policy blunder. The mechanical aftermath quietly guarantees a colossal liquidity injection. Reversing those duties forces the government to issue a potential $160 billion refund to importers and corporations. We are witnessing a perfectly timed stealth stimulus check deposited into the U.S. economy right before the midterms.
The tech sector reveals another glaring blind spot. The herd spent two years throwing cash at anything carrying an AI label. The honeymoon phase abruptly ended. Maximum confusion. Anthropic recently announced its latest update can automate legacy COBOL code, instantly vaporizing billions of dollars from established giants like IBM. Artificial intelligence is now actively hunting entrenched software monopolies and erasing highly lucrative consulting ecosystems. Maximum anxiety.
Below, as always, the rest of what’s cooking:
The Software Infrastructure Tax
The software sector faces a profound structural challenge. High gross margins are becoming unsustainable in a landscape dominated by artificial intelligence. The marginal cost of production is shifting from cheap processors to highly expensive inference chips. Existing providers face escalating costs to maintain their technological edge. Incumbents must sacrifice near-term profitability to fund massive computational expenses to survive the brutal industry transition.
The Struggle of Legacy Payment Processors
Digital payment pioneers once commanded massive valuation premiums. Years of market share erosion and fierce competition from integrated smartphone wallets have severely crushed their dominance. PayPal recently attracted takeover interest after its stock slid to a decade low. The entire sector faces brutal consolidation as organic growth stagnates. Survival now requires aggressive mergers due to the rapid evaporation of outdated competitive advantages.
The Disappearance of Dealer Gamma
For most of the past year, dealer gamma sat in a supportive range of $4–9 billion, acting as a built-in shock absorber, dampening moves and keeping things orderly. That cushion has now collapsed to near zero. The S&P crossed below Goldman’s short-term CTA sell threshold at 6,900, with the medium-term trigger sitting about 150 points lower at 6,750. One bad headline and systematic sellers could pile in fast.
Tariffs Reloaded: SCOTUS Ruling, Same Revenue
The Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs on Friday, but the administration had Section 122 tariffs live at 15% by Saturday. Goldman estimates the effective tariff rate drops by barely one percentage point, from just over 10% to roughly 9%. Treasury Secretary Bessent insists 2026 tariff revenue will be virtually unchanged. The legal authority changed; the economic reality barely flinched.
THE WEEK: State of the Union, Nvidia, Wall of Fed Speak
Today brings Trump’s State of the Union address, expect tariff rhetoric and potential market-moving sound bites. Consumer confidence data also drops today. Wednesday is the main event: Nvidia earnings after the close. Thursday features Witkoff and Kushner meeting Iran in Geneva. Friday delivers PPI inflation data. In between, a parade of Fed speakers, Goolsbee, Collins, Bostic, Waller, Cook, and Barkin, plus $183 billion in Treasury note supply hitting the market.
Traditional Tactics for this Tape
Skew is extreme: downside puts are expensive, upside calls are historically cheap. That makes put spreads attractive for hedging and creates the conditions for a violent squeeze if any positive catalyst emerges. Buyback blackout is nearly over, with 85% of S&P firms back in their open window. Stay hedged, but don’t get so defensive that you miss the snap-back. The gap between fear and the index is wide enough to exploit from both sides.
Don’t guess. Reach out. Let’s build a capital-efficient yet risk-managed strategy from the option chain up.
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TUESDAY TARGET: NVIDIA (NVDA)
Nvidia reports Wednesday after the close. We usually don’t play earnings, maybe this time is different. Implied volatility is elevated. The stock has been range-bound since August (which could make any breakout more violent), and the post-earnings volatility crush has been one of the most reliable patterns in mega-cap tech over the past two years. We’re selling that fear on both sides.
Risk: A material earnings surprise, in either direction, that pushes NVDA outside the $170–$215 corridor. Manage accordingly.
This is not an official trade entry, just food for thought. Official trade entries are posted in the Trade Alerts section. Here, we relentlessly innovate and deliver more novel setups.
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Tuesday Target is written by Juri von Randow — founder of MacroDozer, professional investor, and trading mentor — delivering institutional-grade trade ideas, market insights, and strategy every week for serious1 investors.
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