🎯 This Week’s Target: 20+ Year Treasuries (TLT)
AI has run out of sockets. Hyperscalers own the chips, but the grid holds the power, literally. Washington just opened the biggest credit window since the pandemic, and this time it is for reactors, not rescue plans. The Energy Department’s loan office will bankroll a wave of new nuclear builds, turning electricity into collateral and the state into lender-in-chief.
Add the timing: the shutdown deal frees up Treasury cash, corporate buybacks are back, and the Fed has parked its balance sheet runoff. Liquidity that looked seasonal now feels structural. The pipes are filling again, just as energy becomes the new collateral base.
Meanwhile, the Supreme Court is weighing the tariff pipeline that has been quietly funding stimulus. A green light keeps the flow alive; a block reroutes it through Congress; slower, but wider. Either way, the decision reshapes how fiscal juice reaches markets into 2026.
The new playbook is clear: government credit powers electrons, electrons power data, and data drives returns. Energy is the new balance sheet.
Below, as always, the rest of what’s cooking:
Europe’s Quiet Advance
Earnings revision breadth has finally turned positive, macro surprises beat muted expectations, and positioning remains moderate. Several desks raised 2025–26 EPS paths, and financials show remarkable tape strength. It’s a slower tape with fewer traps—fertile ground for compounding when U.S. narratives wobble.
Gold: Watch the Funding Pulse
The recent drawdown lined up with dollar firmness and liquidity stress; the bounce arrived as vol cooled and flows stabilized. Central‑bank demand remains persistent in tonnage terms, while speculative positioning sits mid‑range after sizeable ETF outflows.
Bitcoin Front‑Runs the Flow
Digital assets tend to react first when the Fed stops draining and the Treasury starts spending. On‑chain supply overhang has eased after a year of range trading, and the driver ahead is liquidity more than halving lore. Treat crypto as an early read on dollar flow and term premia rather than a referendum on AI hype.
The Week: Data Returns as DC Reopens
With the Senate moving to end the 40‑day shutdown, a backlog of releases is set to hit: September payrolls could print within three business days of reopening, while October CPI may slip and pair with November later. Mid‑week is Fed‑heavy (Williams, Waller, Bostic, Miran, Collins) and Treasury supply tests demand with 10‑years on Wednesday and 30‑years Thursday. Micro signals arrive from Cisco, Disney, and Applied Materials, while abroad we watch UK labor/GDP, Germany’s ZEW, and China’s Friday activity dump; note cash Treasuries are closed today for Veterans Day.
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TUESDAY TARGET: 20+ Year Treasuries (TLT)
We almost posted this trade yesterday in our Trade Alerts section. After a month off, it felt tempting, but when portfolio volatility spikes, the smart move is to pause, reset, and review twice as hard. Overtrading, getting too directional, and over-hedging kills edge. Discipline brings it back.
We only need one strong trade per monthly cycle to hit roughly 30% annualized returns, so expect fewer alerts going forward; higher quality, lower quantity.
Last week’s oil setup could have restarted the engine, but TLT may do it instead. A January expiry fits the new timeline.
Liquidity is quietly improving. The Fed plans to halt QT in early December, Treasury spending is flowing again after the shutdown, and buybacks run strong through mid-month, a mix that typically supports longer-duration assets. Bond auctions and lingering vol keep traders cautious, which makes a slightly bullish iron condor ideal: room to benefit if yields stabilize or drift lower.
Implied volatility on TLT is quite low, one reason we are waiting for a better entry. If IV ticks higher, we will likely pull the trigger.
👉 Elite Traders — hit me up in MacroDozer Discord if anything’s unclear. Early entry, repair, or exit warnings will post there first.
All our recent trades and the reasoning behind them can be found in the Trade Alerts section. Think of it as a behind-the-scenes look into our process, so you can decide if it’s worth adopting (or adapting) in your own strategy.
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Tuesday Target is written by Juri von Randow — founder of MacroDozer, professional investor, and trading mentor — delivering institutional-grade trade ideas, market insights, and strategy every week for serious investors.
🚨 Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance ≠ future results.