TWITTER: MacroDoζer Summer Special 1/5 (+12%)
We Go Back In When The Mars Mission Becomes More Tangible
Executive Summary
We are not fighting Hindenburg Research.
See you on Mars.
1. Recap Situation
We were betting on a prolonged legal battle between Elon and the Twitter crowd. We also thought the sell-off in July was stretched and put a fair value at around 35.
Check out the original BrainDoζer below.
2. Why Now?
We got a little bored with the situation. Volatility has not contracted as we had liked, and short-seller Hindenburg suddenly became a long-buyer. We are not interested in fighting Hindenburg Research. One can see that Twitter is systemically accumulated. We have to seize the weak moment to get out.
Potentially we go back in when Elon announces shooting Twitter to Mars.
3. Trade Execution
Trade Entry - Jul 11, 2022
1) Short Call 35, Sep 16, 2022: 3.20 Credit.
2) Short Put 35, Sep 16, 2022: 4.70 Credit.
3) Long Call 48, Sep 16, 2022: 0.23 Debit.
4) Long Put 22, Sep 16, 2022: 0.79 Debit.
Total: 7.20 Credit.1
Trade Exit - Aug 26, 2022
1) Long Call 35, Sep 16, 2022: 6.20 Debit.
2) Long Put 35, Sep 16, 2022: 0.65 Debit.
3) Short Call 48, Sep 16, 2022: 0.15 Credit.
4) Short Put 22, Sep 16, 2022: 0.02 Credit.
Total: 6.50 Debit.2
The absolute return of this trade is
7.20 - 6.50 = 0.70
The capital used was 5.80, resulting in a return on capital of
0.70 / 5.80 = 12.1%
Total credit equals the sum of the mid-prices of each bid/ ask spread. Brokers usually get filled mid-price for liquid options.
Total credit equals the sum of the mid-prices of each bid/ ask spread. Brokers usually get filled mid-price for liquid options.