🎯 TUESDAY TARGET: Amplitude (AMPL) | 👇 Reveal the Play
In 1930, with machines blamed for mass unemployment, John Maynard Keynes coined the term technological unemployment and told everyone to relax: within a hundred years his grandchildren would be eight times richer and work fifteen hours a week. Scorecard today, four years before his deadline: living standards up roughly eightfold, the jobs came back, and we still grind forty hours. The pessimists were right about the pain, the optimist was right about the wealth, and the forty-hour week outlived them both.
Debt hysteria carries the same track record. Britain beat Napoleon in 1815 carrying debt above 200% of GDP, then ran the planet for a century and quietly retired the last of those war bonds in 2015. Andrew Jackson killed America’s central bank, paid the national debt down to zero in 1835 and got the Panic of 1837, the worst crash of the century, as a thank-you note. Last month the US crossed $40 trillion, gold and bitcoin ripped, and the doom clock keeps ticking.
Which brings us to the next machine, and this one targets the marketers. AI assistants now restock fridges, pick sneakers and haggle phone plans, and software has no impulses to work on. The “only two left” banner, the influencer with the discount code, the sponsored listing at the top of the page: fifty years of tricks built for a human brain, and the brain is leaving the store. The bot compares every shop at once, reads every review and remembers every late parcel. Price, quality and reliability win. Charm loses.
The machine has won every round for two centuries. Learn it, use it, own it.
Below, as always, the minimum you need to know, and not a word more:
Warsh Makes September Live
Kevin Warsh used Jackson Hole to end forward guidance, restate the 2% target as fixed, and call financial conditions anything except restrictive. Markets moved September hike odds from roughly 35% to 60%. Two prints now decide the meeting: Friday’s payrolls and the September 11 CPI. Warsh has criticized false precision in data, yet he just handed traders two exact benchmarks to judge him by.
Software Rises From the Dead
Salesforce jumped 22% on results and an Anthropic partnership, and the broad software ETF posted its best day in twenty years. The disruption narrative flipped to monetization: incumbents with proprietary data and distribution are repricing their installed base upward with AI features. Hedge funds are buying aggressively, yet net exposure remains low. Semis versus software was the pain trade of the summer, both ways.
Everyone Is Bearish at the Highs
Retail bears in the AAII survey have averaged above 40% for three weeks while the S&P sits 1.5% from a record and the VIX closed at 14.4. Hedge fund net exposure is at its 1st percentile over one year. Historically, bearish sentiment above 40% with VIX under 20 produced average gains of 1.1% in a month and 2.9% in three, with a 75% hit rate. The pain trade points up.
China Leads 69 of 74 Critical Technologies
Twenty years ago the US led China 60 to 3 in critical technology research. The latest count shows China ahead in 69 of 74, installing ten times America’s industrial robots and producing a third of global manufacturing. Beijing now applies the solar-and-EV playbook to seeds and farm robotics. Meanwhile 244 Chinese government vessels swarmed Taiwan in a record month, three weeks before Xi meets Trump.
Humanoids: Goldman Multiplies Its Forecast by Four
Goldman now expects 75,000 humanoid robot shipments this year, 890,000 by 2030 and 6.5 million by 2035, a $138 billion market, up from 1.4 million previously. Warehouses come first; Amazon already runs over a million robots across 300 sites. Costs should fall 7% a year. Unitree’s IPO is already wobbling on bubble fears, which is exactly how every infrastructure boom starts.
THE WEEK: Payrolls Decide, Waller Talks, Broadcom Reports
ISM manufacturing and JOLTS open the week today, the Fed’s Beige Book follows Wednesday, and Thursday brings ISM services plus Governor Waller, the dove who turned hawk after losing the chair race. Broadcom and Dell report. Friday’s payrolls carry the weight: a second negative print and the September hike wobbles. Beyond that, CPI lands September 11, Treasury buybacks start September 9, and the Fed decides September 16.
Earnings season never ends. Last week’s Elite Trader call laid out our checklist for it, from expected move to a neutral entry before the close. Six minutes, free to watch:
Tactics for this Tape
Carry less directional exposure into Friday and CPI, and let cheap options do the work: one-month index calls for the upside, three-month index put spreads for the downside, and puts on high-yield ETFs if you want to bet that record-tight credit spreads finally widen. Favor Nasdaq over small caps, refiners over crude, and buy gold and bitcoin on dips rather than strength.
Don’t guess. Reach out. Let’s build a capital-efficient yet risk-managed strategy from the option chain up.
Get Rich Overnight with Options? Yeah Right...
TUESDAY TARGET: Amplitude (AMPL)
Amplitude runs the analytics that tell software companies what users actually do inside their apps, exactly the data an AI agent needs before it can act. The stock bled from $15 to under $6 over eighteen months, then doubled since July and just cleared its long-term downtrend on the weekly chart, with revenue growing 18% while software flips from AI victim to AI winner.
We take the January 2027 $15 call at about $2.05, 136 days of runway, breakeven near $15 if the move arrives within two months. Years of dead money, one quarter of proof.
Be prepared to sit on an 80% loss at some point on the way up, so size the paper trade accordingly, or use a mental stop, or wait for a pullback if AMPL is generous enough to revisit the green Fibonacci zone. The machine says shares win. I say take it as a longer-term Autobahn trade and swing for the fences with a plain long call.
The idea, of course, is taken straight from the Daily Doze Autobahn trade board, free to read for every subscriber:
⓵ AUTOBAHN: Growth at Full Speed
This is not an official trade entry, just food for thought. Official trade entries are posted in the Trade Alerts section. Over there, we relentlessly innovate and deliver novel setups.
All our recent trades and the reasoning behind them can be found in the Trade Alerts section. Think of it as a behind-the-scenes look into our process, so you can decide if it’s worth adopting (or adapting) in your own strategy.
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⓵ AUTOBAHN: Growth at Full Speed (free)
⓶ DEEP VALUE: Historically Cheap, Still Growing
⓷ ULTIMATE BEAR: Weak Names, Ready to Short
⓸ SLEEPER AGENT: Movement on Sale
⓹ BOILER ROOM: Premium Worth Selling
⓺ EARNINGS GRENADE: Fear vs Reality
⓻ TIME MACHINE: Sell Front, Own Back
⓼ GAMMA MAP: Walls, Pins, Trapdoors
Every Tuesday Target trade walks straight off one of these boards; the Daily Doze pays for itself before your first sip.
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Tuesday Target is written by Juri von Randow — founder of MacroDozer, professional investor, and trading mentor — delivering institutional-grade trade ideas, market insights, and strategy every week for serious1 investors.
🚨 Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance ≠ future results.
If you are only here for the money, look elsewhere. Success requires a dedication to the craft.