🎯 TUESDAY TARGET: CrowdStrike (CRWD) | 👇 Reveal the Play
Everyone’s screaming about 5% yields like the sky is falling. Quick history check: the long bond spent most of the last sixty years around these levels. The real freak show was the fifteen years of free money after 2008, which taught a whole generation of investors the wrong baseline. Today’s crisis is simply the old price tag coming back on.
And the price tag applies to everyone now. Even Saudi Arabia, the world’s most famous bottomless checkbook, just discovered capital discipline: the 170-kilometer mirror city quietly stalled after $50 billion, the giant cube in Riyadh is on ice, the golf league is behind on its bills, and Newcastle is selling its stars. When princes start demanding a return on capital, the free-money era has officially been buried.
Here’s the twist the doomers miss: scarcity sharpens. When Napoleon pulled Britain’s farmhands off to war, wages jumped and farms mechanized, and the Industrial Revolution accelerated. Fresh research shows the lowest-birthrate countries out-innovated and out-grew everyone for seventy years. Expensive money and scarce people force sharper tools. Sounds like our home turf.
Below, as always, the minimum you need to know, and not a word more:
The Squeeze Behind the Curtain
Trend-following funds hold near-record short positions in Treasuries. Goldman estimates a two-sigma price rally would trigger the largest forced short covering ever recorded. Engineer a bounce, let the machines chase it, and 10-year yields could slide toward 4.30% right before the midterms. Watch for aggressive squeeze attempts latest on Friday.
Warsh’s High-Wire Friday
Jackson Hole’s keynote lands Friday at 10am EDT, the new Fed Chair’s first. Markets need him to defend the 2% inflation target with real conviction, even at the cost of friction with the White House. A vague, big-picture speech would confirm suspicions that nobody in Washington prioritizes inflation, inviting the bond market to resume testing everyone’s pain threshold.
The $2.3 Trillion Due Date
AI’s problem now has a price and a date. The price: token costs collapsed nearly half since May as competition and free mystery models deflate the very product all that hardware produces. The date: the four biggest US cloud providers carry roughly $2.3 trillion in contracted computing rentals, nearly half owed by OpenAI and Anthropic alone, with mortgage-style payments starting 2027-2028 regardless of demand. And it keeps growing: Broadcom added a $100 billion off-balance-sheet debt deal Friday, and its default insurance promptly jumped.
Economic D-Day for Tehran
Washington sanctioned nearly 60 Iran-linked entities and threatened secondary sanctions across shipping, gold, aviation, technology, and digital assets, with a major financial institution reportedly next. Oil fell on the news as tanker traffic through Hormuz resumed under US protection. The market now prices economic strangulation as de-escalation. A cornered regime rarely honors that assumption for long.
Bitcoin’s $2.7 Billion Bonfire
Bitcoin ripped 20% in three days, its biggest such rally since early 2023, briefly touching $80,000 while $2.73 billion in shorts got liquidated, the largest crypto short-wipeout on record. The debasement crowd reads Treasury intervention as money printing. Last time a similar three-day burst appeared, price rolled back to its 200-day average before resuming.
THE WEEK: Three Tests in Five Days
The calendar packs the year’s remaining suspense into one stretch: Nvidia earnings Wednesday, July core PCE with consensus near 20bps, and Friday’s double feature at 10am EDT, Warsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote alongside the BLS payroll benchmark revisions. Add 2-, 5-, and 7-year auctions, RBA minutes, and thin late-August liquidity, and the implied S&P move of 1.31% looks optimistic.
Tactics for this Tape
Stay nimble and keep positions small into Friday. Squeezes cut both ways here, so defined-risk structures beat naked directional bets, and hard assets plus boring balance sheets remain the quiet bid. Let Washington fight the bond market with your risk pre-defined, and keep dry powder for the dislocations this week will almost certainly serve.
Don’t guess. Reach out. Let’s build a capital-efficient yet risk-managed strategy from the option chain up.
Get Rich Overnight with Options? Yeah Right...
TUESDAY TARGET: CrowdStrike (CRWD)
Potential earnings trade, strikes dummies for now, to be put on right before earnings call and adjusted for share price moves until right before earnings.
CrowdStrike reports tomorrow after close. Ahead of earnings, option prices balloon, traders pay up for big moves. We take the other side and sell that expensive premium through an iron condor: defined risk, and we profit as long as the stock stays inside our break-evens, which sit wider than the move the market itself expects.
After the report, the inflated premium deflates fast, and that deflation is our edge. Boring by design, exactly how we like earnings.
Trade, for now, passed the Daily Doze → Earnings Grenade test:
This is not an official trade entry, just food for thought. Official trade entries are posted in the Trade Alerts section. Over there, we relentlessly innovate and deliver novel setups.
All our recent trades and the reasoning behind them can be found in the Trade Alerts section. Think of it as a behind-the-scenes look into our process, so you can decide if it’s worth adopting (or adapting) in your own strategy.
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