🎯 TUESDAY TARGET: BlackBerry (BB) | 👇 Reveal the Play
Picture the worst case every analyst circled on the calendar: Hormuz, the planet’s busiest oil artery, choked shut for nearly four months. Oil opened the year at $70. It sits at $70 today. The doomsday premium melted, and everyone who panic-bought crude as insurance handed it back within hours. Strangling the world’s most important chokepoint moved… wait… eeehhmm, right: nothing!
Here’s the thread I can’t stop pulling. Almost nobody is steering what they claim to steer. Warsh struts around vowing to crush inflation, yet most price swings come from oil, food, and supply shocks; stuff no rate hike can reach. And Beijing cured its property collapse by quietly rerouting bank loans from apartments to EV and solar factories; the housing bust never healed, it just dropped out of the headlines, and now that the credit hose is being clamped, it’s creeping back.
Three players, one shared delusion: that motion and control are the same thing. They rarely are.
We catch the same fever. More screens, more alerts, more trades; a slot machine that pays out in dopamine while it bleeds the account dry.
The real edge this year? Accept what you can’t move. Trade less, wait better, keep compounding.
Below, as always, all you need to know and not a word more:
Apple’s Awkward Phone Call to China
The plot thickens. Apple is quietly lobbying Washington for permission to buy memory from CXMT, a Chinese maker the Pentagon has blacklisted. The irony is delicious: by blocking cheaper Chinese chips on security grounds, the US lets a Korean duopoly dictate American inflation, and by extension, Fed policy. Sometimes the patriotic choice and the affordable one collide head-on.
The Cartel’s Borrowed Time
Before you chase memory stocks to the moon, remember this is a brutally cyclical business. Record margins always invite a flood of new supply, and Samsung and SK Hynix are already signaling expansion plans. Goldman flags three threats to Micron: Chinese rivals, rapid capacity additions, and any sudden cooling in AI server demand. Peak tightness may already be in the rear-view.
Dealers Become Chasers
A wonky but vital signal: S&P gamma has plunged to one of its lowest readings ever. In plain English, the dealers who hedge options are now forced to buy after rallies and sell after drops, pouring gasoline on whatever direction the market picks. Add tightening liquidity and stretched positioning, and the kindling for a sharp move is stacking up quietly.
Don’t Buy the Hawk Costume
Every fresh Fed chair comes out swinging tough on inflation, Warsh is no exception. But the playbook rarely survives contact with reality; recall Powell’s 2018 hawkish lurch that cracked stocks within weeks. Markets now price roughly one-and-a-half hikes. If inflation has already peaked, as the falling oil curve suggests, that script could flip toward a September cut.
Where the Froth Rotates Next
Notice the rotation. The AI IPO window just froze, OpenAI reportedly pushing its listing to 2027, yet nuclear power SPACs are running red-hot, with over a dozen reactor developers now public, many without a single paying customer. Speculation doesn’t vanish when one casino closes; it strolls to the next table. Watch where the money actually moves.
THE WEEK: Jobs, Sintra, and a Short Friday
Global attention pivots to a highly compressed, holiday-shortened trading calendar culminating in Thursday’s accelerated U.S. payrolls report. Traders will intensely scrutinize Fed Chair Warsh’s appearance at the ECB’s Sintra forum for any policy clues. With crucial domestic labor data, ISM manufacturing prints, and Eurozone inflation readings hitting a liquidity-drained summer market ahead of America’s 250th birthday, expect outsized price reactions.
Tactics for this Tape
Stop chasing overextended hardware momentum and embrace the absolute alpha of silence. With index correlation collapsing and dealer gamma sitting in deep negative territory, this environment demands ruthless patience. Protect your downside using cheap options on broad indices while hunting for targeted mean-reversion setups in temporarily abandoned sectors like software. Preserve your mental capital, deliberately trade smaller sizes, and wait for the fat pitch before deploying fresh cash.
Don’t guess. Reach out. Let’s build a capital-efficient yet risk-managed strategy from the option chain up.
Get Rich Overnight with Options? Yeah Right...
TUESDAY TARGET: BlackBerry (BB)
We remain in observation mode. Selling rich premium into overbought conditions could offer a wide profitability window. Only for rock stars.
BB staged a parabolic melt-up to $12.48, keeping implied volatility elevated. One could exploit this euphoria by structuring a 52-day Iron Condor. Shorting the 12/13 inner strikes and buying 8/17 wings. This builds a forgiving profit tent with relatively wide breakevens. We need momentum to exhaust into sideways chop, letting time decay melt the pricey premium.
This is not an official trade entry, just food for thought. Official trade entries are posted in the Trade Alerts section. Over there, we relentlessly innovate and deliver novel setups.
All our recent trades and the reasoning behind them can be found in the Trade Alerts section. Think of it as a behind-the-scenes look into our process, so you can decide if it’s worth adopting (or adapting) in your own strategy.
🧠 Elite Trader Plan
And if you need a calm, step-by-step options plan that grows accounts and tames big swings, check out the Elite Trader Plan. In 4–8 sessions, we will bring you fully up to speed, all included in the plan.
The Elite Trader Plan
A calm, step-by-step options plan that grows accounts and tames big swings.
Who this is for? Beginners can follow the Starter path. Advanced investor students can skip ahead and dive deep fast.
Elite Trader
📅 60-Minute Mentorship Call
More time = more value.
📌 Advanced Options
📌 Risk Management
📌 Capital Efficiency
Rate: $135 | 👉 Book 60-Minute Call
Elite Trader: $110 | 👉 Book Elite Trader Call
⏳ 30-Minute Session
Less time = more often.
📚 In-Depth Learning
🧠 Strategy Breakdowns
🔍 Trade Reviews
Rate: $95 | 👉 Book 30-Minute Call
Elite Trader: $55 | 👉 Book Elite Trader Call
Tuesday Target is written by Juri von Randow — founder of MacroDozer, professional investor, and trading mentor — delivering institutional-grade trade ideas, market insights, and strategy every week for serious1 investors.
🚨 Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance ≠ future results.
If you are only here for the money, look elsewhere. Success requires a dedication to the craft.