Note: Audio and video will return soon. We are currently working 24/7 on a new segment on macrodozer.com called Daily Doze, which will be more powerful than anything you have seen so far. We are also in the middle of setting up the logistics for a free weekly call for Elite Traders. Things are moving fast, and I hope this will compensate for the 2-3 weeks with no video or audio on the Tuesday Target letter.
🎯 TUESDAY TARGET: ServiceNow (NOW) | 👇 Reveal the Play
Markets are wired for yes or no, open or shut, boom or bust. The messy middle, the trickle between extremes, drives them nuts; so they round it off to whichever clean story trades easier. Three of those roundings are live right now.
Oil reopened through Hormuz, and the trader cheerfully buried its war premium. But a leaking strait still drains the world’s oil tanks toward empty while everyone acts as if the taps ran wide. The shortage simply mails itself forward, landing later as inflation, precisely when a freshly hawkish Fed has sworn off rescues.
Then SpaceX shed $600 billion in a day, and the headline screamed bubble popped. Yet barely a sliver of the stock trades; the rest stays bolted down until autumn. Pricing that teaspoon as if it were the whole ocean is the real sleight of hand, especially while that inflated paper gets spent like cash to swallow real companies, conjuring the very fundamentals it pretends to mirror.
Beneath it all, the market flipped a switch: punish the giants writing the AI checks, reward the chipmakers cashing them. Tidy. Except they share one bloodstream. Starve the spender long enough, and the seller bleeds too.
Below, as always, all you need to know and not a word more:
The Bond Market Yawns While Tech Sweats
A strange split keeps widening. Bond-market fear, measured by the MOVE index, has melted back to pre-conflict calm even as yields climbed and the dollar ripped higher. Yet volatility in tech names is doing the reverse - exploding. The takeaway: uncertainty didn’t disappear, it relocated. It drifted out of the broad economy and into the AI build-out itself, where every memory chip now carries the market’s nerves.
When the Richest Borrow Anyway
Nvidia just sold $25 billion in bonds, its first raise since 2021, despite minting cash hand over fist. Why borrow when you’re swimming in profit? Because management clearly expects this spending cycle to run for years, not quarters. The US now supplies more than half the world’s fresh credit, most of it AI-flavored, while households’ savings cushion has thinned to a frail 2.6%.
Cheaper Rivals, Bigger Bills
Logic says cheap Chinese open-source models, the latest GLM release, Sakana’s clever router that simply coordinates other models, should gut the case for splurging on chips. The opposite is unfolding. If the frontier gap shrinks from a year to a few months, nobody dares ease off the gas. Competition swells the spending. Next year’s capex forecasts keep climbing, exactly when everyone expected them to peak.
What Actually Pops a Bubble
Manias rarely die from a steep valuation alone. They die when ballots, bond vigilantes, or a currency accident yank the rug out. AI now makes up 39% of the S&P, a concentration last seen before the 1880s railroad frenzy. So the trigger probably won’t be a P/E chart; it’ll be a November Senate result or a currency blowup in Tokyo or Seoul that nobody bothered to hedge.
From Lawsuits to License Fees
Getty Images leapt 141% on a single deal letting OpenAI display its pictures inside ChatGPT. The bigger signal: the AI labs are swapping courtroom brawls for licensing checks, suddenly reviving a graveyard of beaten-down content names. For investors, it reprices who actually gets paid across the AI stack, handing the data owners a real seat at the table alongside the model builders.
Fireworks for the Portfolio?
With the 250th July 4th two weeks out and approval ratings near lows, expect the President to chase record highs by almost any means, see the recent Intel cheerleading. He’s also feuding openly with Senate leadership over election and surveillance bills. The coming fortnight could be steered by social-media pronouncements, an engineered melt-up bumping straight into a freshly hawkish Fed.
THE WEEK: Core Inflation, Chips and Fed Voices
Two heavyweights anchor the calendar. Global flash PMIs drop today, then Thursday’s core PCE, Goldman pegs it near 0.31% monthly, nudging the yearly rate toward 3.4%, the hottest since late 2023.
Williams and Goolsbee speak Thursday, offering live clues on the hike debate. The real wildcard is Micron’s Wednesday earnings: up roughly 250% since March, the memory bellwether now moves the whole macro mood.
Tactics for this Tape
Institutional hedge funds are actively distributing risk directly into blind retail euphoria. Maintain strict discipline by trimming your most overextended momentum winners and holding a healthy cash buffer. Let the impatient crowd pay exorbitant volatility premiums today. We will patiently wait to buy their panic when the inevitable mechanical liquidations arrive. Use tactical option structures to strictly define downside risk and protect capital from sudden reversals.
Don’t guess. Reach out. Let’s build a capital-efficient yet risk-managed strategy from the option chain up.
Get Rich Overnight with Options? Yeah Right...
TUESDAY TARGET: ServiceNow (NOW)
Still trending down long-term, but we like the bottom-building process, and its relative valuation multiples have never been this cheap while revenue and earnings keep getting revised to the upside. Plus, if the market keeps falling, these guys might not have much room left to get any cheaper.
Good enough for government work…
This is not an official trade entry, just food for thought. Official trade entries are posted in the Trade Alerts section. Over there, we relentlessly innovate and deliver novel setups.
All our recent trades and the reasoning behind them can be found in the Trade Alerts section. Think of it as a behind-the-scenes look into our process, so you can decide if it’s worth adopting (or adapting) in your own strategy.
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Tuesday Target is written by Juri von Randow — founder of MacroDozer, professional investor, and trading mentor — delivering institutional-grade trade ideas, market insights, and strategy every week for serious1 investors.
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