🎯 TUESDAY TARGET: Korea (EWY) | 👇 Reveal the Play
Here is a thought the chasers keep missing while they pile into the next shiny chip: this whole AI rally is really one long hunt for scarcity. GPUs ran hot, so the mob went looking for the next thing in short supply: power, then memory, and now, tiny ceramic capacitors that cost pennies. Each time a bottleneck loosens, the stampede drills down into a smaller, more obscure part to keep the scarcity story breathing. Call it a treadmill: you always need a fresh bottleneck, because yesterday’s always gets solved.
Also, watch where the boring money walks. Buffett’s heir grabs a homebuilder. Diller stalks a casino. Another billionaire circles Caesars. They are buying the kind of scarce a server farm can’t copy: a buildable plot, a hotel, a gaming floor on the Strip. You can’t print or paste more of those.
Could be a tell. Manufactured scarcity evaporates the moment the music stops, because it was always a game of find the next part. Real scarcity just sits there, stubborn and dull. And the post-mania script rarely changes: the unloved, left-behind names tend to lead on the way out?
Maybe ;-)
Below, as always, all you need to know, and not a word more:
Earnings Did the Heavy Lifting
Before you dismiss this as pure bubble, note the engine: roughly two-thirds of the rally since ChatGPT launched is explained by actual earnings growth, not multiple expansion. Last quarter delivered 27% year-on-year profit growth, and the S&P’s P/E actually slipped from 22x to 21x. The E is doing the work. That makes this stretch harder to short than the doomers admit.
Software’s Comeback
The software ETF (IGV) has rocketed roughly 45% off its April lows, reclaiming its 200-day average and posting its best month in around 25 years. Jensen Huang’s pushback on SaaS is dead fears, plus better-than-feared earnings from Snowflake and others, lit the fuse. After a move like this, though, it sits at heavy resistance and looks badly overbought.
Alphabet Reaches for the Tin
Google’s parent stunned the market with an $80 billion equity raise to fund AI capex, including a $40 billion at-the-market (ATM) program normally reserved for meme stocks, plus a discounted $10 billion deal with Berkshire. Tellingly, much of the ATM proceeds will cover employee-equity tax bills. A multi-trillion-dollar giant tapping retail to pay its taxes tells you where free cash flow is going.
The Bond Market’s Quiet Warning
Treasuries sold off as oil climbed, with the 30-year hovering around 5.00% and rate-hike odds for 2026 jumping to roughly 75%. Note the reversal: the conversation has flipped from rate cuts to rate hikes. A packed June calendar, jobs data, inflation prints, a new Fed chair’s first meeting, means any bounce in bonds keeps meeting fresh selling pressure.
THE WEEK: Event Risk Overload
A loaded calendar lands all at once. ISM Manufacturing already beat on Monday; JOLTS job openings hit today, followed by ADP and ISM Services on Wednesday, before Friday’s main event, May nonfarm payrolls, with consensus near 145,000 and unemployment around 4.2%. Add Broadcom earnings Wednesday as the semiconductor bellwether, plus Hewlett Packard Enterprise and CrowdStrike for read-throughs across hardware and software. Geopolitics stays the wild- or boringcard throughout.
Tactics for this Tape
Stay long with discipline, not abandon. Protection is dirty cheap, so own some, simple index puts cost little, and a small VIX call hedge guards the correlation snap-back nobody is pricing. Trim the most stretched winners, especially semis, into strength rather than chasing the final 10%. Keep dry powder for the unloved laggards. The melt-up can run further; just don’t be the last one holding it.
Don’t guess. Reach out. Let’s build a capital-efficient yet risk-managed strategy from the option chain up.
Get Rich Overnight with Options? Yeah Right...
TUESDAY TARGET: Korea (EWY)
EWY has gone parabolic on SK Hynix and the AI memory frenzy, the cleanest proxy for the most crowded speculation on the planet. We are not stupid enough to short a parabola outright (that’s how shorts get carried out on a stretcher). Instead, a double calendar: sell the front-month June options, own the July ones. We win if Korea simply cools a little and keeps grinding higher after a healthy retrace, roughly 190 and 220 into June expiry, letting rich front-month premium decay while our longer leg survives the June catalyst minefield.
A few warnings. Price is flying pre-market, so the strikes may need adjusting once the bell rings. A crash in implied vol is a real risk and can make this one a sweaty hold, but it’s a short trade, things move fast, and you’ll be out before it can sting. Spreads aren’t the tightest, though Korean iShares liquidity is finally deep(ish) after years in the wilderness. And remember: we are not playing Korea here, we are playing two companies, both reporting earnings after our monthly expiries.
This is not an official trade entry, just food for thought. Official trade entries are posted in the Trade Alerts section. Over there, we relentlessly innovate and deliver novel setups.
All our recent trades and the reasoning behind them can be found in the Trade Alerts section. Think of it as a behind-the-scenes look into our process, so you can decide if it’s worth adopting (or adapting) in your own strategy.
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Tuesday Target is written by Juri von Randow — founder of MacroDozer, professional investor, and trading mentor — delivering institutional-grade trade ideas, market insights, and strategy every week for serious1 investors.
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