Have you ever noticed how some market analysts or equity research heads at big banks seem determined to be contrarians? I’m not talking about the perma-bulls at Goldman Sachs — those guys practically run on gummy bears. No, I mean the heads of something at some of the other bailed-out banks. There’s always that one guy whose default move is to swim against the current, no matter where the market is headed. “Must… swim… upstream!”
When markets are rallying and hitting new highs, they’re out there shouting about shorts, bashing central banks and governments, warning of doom. Then, when a real bear market sets in, they pivot — suddenly bullish, urging everyone to buy the dip, promising brighter days ahead. So what drives this relentless contrarianism?
We asked our Head of Psychology here at MacroDozer. Her take: “It reeks of a deep-seated need to feel smarter than the crowd — to appear insightful, ahead of the curve.” But reflexively going against the market doesn’t make you a genius; it makes you a critic — usually wrong, occasionally right, and rarely profitable. Sure, when the tide turns, you might make a penny more than your neighbor. But how much did it cost you to be wrong the whole way there?
It’s funny — every other industry has something tangible to show. You can touch it, drive it, wear it, eat it. Not so with these corporate talking heads. Their product is pretty much invisible or non-existent. No published results, no performance breakdowns, no real accountability — just commentary about what already happened yesterday. If they could go contrarian on last week’s price action, they probably would.
Real investing isn’t about throwing elbows at your mom like a four-year-old desperate for attention. It’s about identifying probabilities, managing risk, and putting your money where your mouth is.
Below, as always, the minimum we need to know to get a feel for what’s cooking:
Quarter-End Pension Buying Spree
Pension funds and target-date retirement portfolios are gearing up for their largest equity rebalance since the COVID-19 market lows, preparing to pour over $100 billion into U.S. equities. UBS highlights this as a significant market driver, particularly as retail investors remain committed to buying dips, especially in technology. However, blackout periods for corporate buybacks mean institutional flows are easing, putting a ceiling on sustained rallies.
Tesla Under Attack
Radical anti-Tesla sentiment has reached new levels, as far-left activists — now joined openly by Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett — coordinate aggressive campaigns aiming to harm Tesla’s reputation and stock value. Attorney General Pam Bondi’s explicit warning underlines the seriousness: these actions verge on economic sabotage and domestic terrorism. Consider tactical protection or long-term positioning if you are a fan.
Trump's Economic Nationalism
Forget Fed meetings; the new mantra on trading floors seems to be Don't fight the Treasury. Trump's administration is radically reshaping economic policy: the proposed tariffs, port restrictions, and quotas on foreign ships could significantly disrupt global trade. Meanwhile, proposals to merge North American economies, with a unified external tariff against China, underscore a seismic shift toward economic nationalism.
China’s Voluntary Export Restraints
China is reportedly contemplating voluntary export restraints — a tactic reminiscent of Japan in the 1980s — combined with raising prices on allowed exports. This move could be profoundly inflationary for importing nations while deflationary domestically in China, potentially leading to another problematic property bubble as domestic liquidity seeks yields. Inflation-linked instruments or hedges could become essential tactical positions should China proceed with this controversial economic maneuver.
Get Rich Overnight with Options? Yeah Right...
TUESDAY TARGET: Call it brave, call it contrarian — we are betting on the Russell 2000 to keep chilling. If it moves against us, we will roll into next month and bring the puts closer to the share price.
All our recent trades and the reasoning behind them can be found in the Trade Alerts section. Don’t let the name fool you—it’s not another jargon-filled hype fest. We simply break down what we’re trading, why we’re trading it, and how we manage each position step by step. Think of it as a behind-the-scenes look into our process, so you can decide if it’s worth adopting (or adapting) in your own strategy.
Curious about how these trades fit into our broader portfolio approach—or how you might apply similar strategies yourself? Book a free 20-minute call to discuss whatever’s on your mind—from honing your edge to improving risk management or even brainstorming new opportunities. No sales pitch, no pressure—just a friendly exchange of ideas.
Please note, all content is for educational purposes and isn't personalized for individual portfolios or financial advice. Curious about putting any of these ideas into action? Juri von Randow is here to offer guidance or connect you with the right resources.
This is a good call!
The actual Tuesday Target? Yeah, I believe so ;-)