Tuesday Target | 11/52
The Cost of Free Money
Stocks are sliding again, and investors are sweating - this time over a 200% duty threat on European booze. Sure, a full-blown trade war might sting, but that is not what should keep you up at night. Is your next Bordeaux or a 10% market correction the real problem? I don’t think so. The real issue is a $1 trillion annual interest bill and a government quietly making sure you foot it.
Washington won’t go broke, and it won’t cut spending. It’ll take the easier route - hidden inflation. Tariff headlines make for good distractions while your purchasing power shrinks. Inflation is the tax no one votes for but everyone pays.
We cut the noise. If you want to protect your portfolio, don’t chase the daily headlines - position yourself. Inflation-resistant assets, tactical volatility plays, and leveraged strategies that benefit from policymakers covering their tracks. Inflation can be your friend - if you want it to be.
Below, as always, the minimum you need to know to get a feel for what's cooking:
The Dollar’s Weaponization
Talk of a so-called Mar-a-Lago accord has unnerved foreign holders of US assets. A shifting global currency dynamic - where tariffs, sanctions, and capital controls become tools of statecraft - raises the risk of a deeper outflow from US markets. If policymakers continue to test the dollar’s global reserve status, liquidity disruptions and a weaker greenback may follow.
Europe’s Rearmament
From increased defense budgets to ramped-up industrial initiatives, Europe’s pivot toward strategic autonomy is well underway. While this can energize local economies, the cost pressures on raw materials, labor, and supply chains are real. Early signs of bureaucratic bottlenecks already hint that rearmament could stoke more inflation.
Hedge Funds & CTA Flows
Systematic funds and hedge managers recently dumped a mountain of equities, intensifying the correction. Fresh data shows that liquidation may have eased, but it’s unclear if this lull is permanent or just the eye of the storm. Timing these flows is tricky; a sudden rally could squeeze shorts, while more bad news might trigger the next wave of selling.
Get Rich Overnight with Options? Yeah Right...
TUESDAY TARGET: We made a 93% profit on US Real Estate last quarter, and now we’re positioning again. While it may drop to recent lows before bouncing, it’s more likely to test the 200 or 40/50 moving averages again first before turning down—still a good setup.
In this market, we’re capitalizing on universally high implied volatilities, favoring ETFs less prone to targeted attacks—whoever’s attacking these days. We’re also diversifying across industries and scaling in gradually, adjusting to daily moves.
All our recent trades and the reasoning behind them can be found in the Trade Alerts section. Don’t let the name fool you—it’s not another jargon-filled hype fest. We simply break down what we’re trading, why we’re trading it, and how we manage each position step by step. Think of it as a behind-the-scenes look into our process, so you can decide if it’s worth adopting (or adapting) in your own strategy.
Curious about how these trades fit into our broader portfolio approach—or how you might apply similar strategies yourself? Book a free 20-minute call to discuss whatever’s on your mind—from honing your edge to improving risk management or even brainstorming new opportunities. No sales pitch, no pressure—just a friendly exchange of ideas.
Please note, all content is for educational purposes and isn't personalized for individual portfolios or financial advice. Curious about putting any of these ideas into action? Juri von Randow is here to offer guidance or connect you with the right resources.