High Return, High Risk?
The Investing Myth—Debunked
How lazy our investment assumptions can be. Most of us don’t have the time or inclination to dive deep, so we hand our hard-earned (or easily inherited) money to semi-automated solutions, settle for mediocrity, or even fall for outright fraud—after all, fraudsters at least promise huge returns, and disappointment seems inevitable anyway.
This environment of mediocrity and deception keeps one lazy belief alive: if you outperform the market, you must have taken bigger risks. But is that always true? When a company consistently delivers superior products or services, we credit expertise, strategy, and careful execution—not just random luck. Why assume investment success is any different?
You probably see where this is going: yes, we’ve been outperforming the market—again—maybe not by our dream margin so far this year, but by a fair amount. Have we done it by taking on more risk? Let’s find out.
MacroDozer vs. Markets
So, how do we know if MacroDozer’s 7.3% year-to-date return in 2025 (spoiler alert) comes with more risk than the S&P’s (-1.7%) or NASDAQ’s (-3.8%)? One way is by looking at the Sharpe Ratio, which measures how much return you’re getting relative to your portfolio’s volatility. Volatility is just a fancy way of saying bumpiness—how much prices swing up and down. A higher Sharpe Ratio means you’re earning more return for each bit of risk you take, making those bumps work for you rather than against you.
So we plotted MacroDozer’s price data—stay with us—and compared it to the S&P 500 (SPY) and Nasdaq (QQQ). Our Sharpe Ratio stands at 2.1, meaning we’re achieving strong, risk-adjusted returns—not just riding the market’s ups and downs. By comparison, the Nasdaq’s Sharpe Ratio sits at -1.0, while the S&P 500’s is -0.6, indicating both benchmarks have been delivering negative returns with no reward for their volatility.
For some perspective, the long-term historical average Sharpe Ratio for the S&P 500 typically hovers around 0.4 to 0.6, climbing to 0.8 to 1.2 in strong bull markets. So at 2.1, we’re not just ahead—we’re outperforming historical norms by a significant margin.
And what about the recent sell-off? While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have been tumbling since mid-February, MacroDozer kept climbing. Turns out, reducing volatility doesn’t just mean limiting downside—it can also mean capturing gains while the benchmarks are tanking.
And no, we didn’t jump on the German market or any other short-lived frenzy that pops up at random. We focus on probabilities, risk-reward ratios, and combine that with fundamentals, technicals, and narratives. We actually control what we’re doing—we’re not just chasing whatever hot story is already priced in, hoping to squeeze out the last drop of a Ponzi-like move before it implodes. Come on, we’re all better than that. ;-)
What’s the Catch?
You might think we’re hiding some big secret. But here’s the truth: the catch is that most people don’t invest the time or energy to manage their money well. They figure underperformance is normal and assume outperformance must carry hidden risks. It doesn’t. Smart strategies, consistent research, and a willingness to learn can beat mediocrity—no unhinged gambles necessary.
Of course, you can spend hours figuring it out on your own, or you can learn from someone who’s already doing it—whether that’s a trusted & fully vetted service, a solid strategy, or the right mentor. Either way, the real catch is you can’t just sit on the sidelines and expect extraordinary results.
Performance Verification & What’s Next
All our recent trades and the reasoning behind them can be found in the Trade Alerts section. Don’t let the name fool you—it’s not another jargon-filled hype fest. We simply break down what we’re trading, why we’re trading it, and how we manage each position step by step. Think of it as a behind-the-scenes look into our process, so you can decide if it’s worth adopting (or adapting) in your own strategy.
Curious about how these trades fit into our broader portfolio approach—or how you might apply similar strategies yourself? Book a free 20-minute call to discuss whatever’s on your mind—from honing your edge to improving risk management or even brainstorming new opportunities. No sales pitch, no pressure—just a friendly exchange of ideas.
Please note, all content is for educational purposes and isn't personalized for individual portfolios or financial advice. Curious about putting any of these ideas into action? Juri von Randow is here to offer guidance or connect you with the right resources.