Why the trade sits red
XLE has about 30 days left and sits relatively negative. First of all, war. Second, ExxonMobil and Chevron are 40 percent of the entire ETF, and on October 30 they both have earnings, right inside my iron condor. We are down two divided by 17, about 15 percent, and that is okay. It might go up a little more first, and hopefully it turns down from there.
What I checked before entry
I checked ExxonMobil and I checked Chevron before I entered, of course. On earnings day they barely move. Even in a wild phase they paused at the report. Both names move like the same asset, so that is why I went into XLE.
Volatility still bites
The implied volatility probably creeps up towards their earnings anyway, and that hurts our iron condor a little bit. That is why we see so little green here. We could hold this one until day 16 also.
Before the report
Nothing is decided yet. If we sit outside the break-even going into the report, I might just exit, because earnings are still a binary event, and if they shoot up from there, that could be a little bit dangerous. I am not sure yet. We see right before the report.
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