Slightly Bearish on Purpose
An iron condor on EWZ, the Brazil fund, built for the election weekend, October 23 to 26. I personally would have put it on more bullish, probably selling the 44 or 45. But I was nonstop calculating expected values with my Python scripts and Claude: Bolsonaro wins, Lula wins, contested election. Slightly bearish covered both wins. A crazy 25 percent crash was the only thing it would not have covered.
Something for the Nerves
Then the unlikely happened for a moment and Brazil dropped. Something for the nerves. It was bought up, bought up, bought up, and all of a sudden we were at plus 25 percent. A new student had my last hour, so I closed an hour early. It ran further into the close.
The Story Is Over
After the event the curve had changed. The condor turned into a very short-term directional trade that looked a little like a call debit spread. The story was over, so I closed it. In a November contract a dip before the rebound costs a lot.
The Rebound Gets Its Own Trade
The bullish idea went out the next day as a Tuesday Target, a long-dated trade into January. I checked calls and call debit spreads, and the naked long call was probably the best trade. I did not go in myself.
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🚨 Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance ≠ future results.