20+ TREASURY BOND: MacDoζe Winter-Blows 4/4 (+32%)
Goodbye Winter-Blow Series. We were entertained!
Executive Summary
No last-minute surprises at the Doze.
No time for fixing and rolling trades.
No less than +32% return on equity, and,
No, we didn’t buy gold!
1. Recap Situation
We were overly snarky in the run-up to Christmas and challenged Stephanie Kelton and the Queen. We also shout out to Jerome Powell and the entire Forbes 100 crowd.
We liked the low correlation of U.S. government bonds with the broader stock market and thought that rally was premature; rates will stay high for a while. We haven't fought the Game Master, and we won't.
We have also clarified why it is impossible to fight inflation by withdrawing excess liquidity through taxes. Policymakers, by and large, lack the power, tools, and knowledge to do so fast and effectively.
Check out the original BrainDozer below.
2. Why Now?
Government bonds can be unpredictable in the short term, especially when new inflation data is released regularly. Contract maturity is twenty-five days away, and we are not interested in spending time fixing and rolling trades. A last-minute breakout above the 200-day moving average would be tiresome. It's unlikely, but we are over treasuries for now.
3. Trade Execution
3.1 Trade Entry - Dec 19, 2022
Total: 6.25 Credit.
3.2 Trade Exit - Jan 23, 2023
Total: 4.75 Debit.
The absolute return on this trade is
6.25 - 4.75 = 1.50
The equity at risk was 4.75, resulting in a return on equity of
1.50 / 4.75 = 31.6%
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