October Snapshot: 52% Profit (YTD)
MacroDozer Fund on Fire
Executive Tease
Rejecting Hero Worship
Outrunning Wall Street
Friends & Family Invite
Driving Forces
During my time at Nomura, where every ex-Lehman banker strutted around like they were more generously endowed than their Japanese colleagues, my old teammates once showed up like a flock of headless chickens—squawking with excitement over some movie that had just come out: Margin Call. They claimed it was about us, or maybe Bear Stearns, Merrill, Goldman—essentially, they thought we were the heroes of the story. I never watched it; couldn’t see the point in reliving those days when we were grinding 21/7 for a bunch of half-wit superiors who thought they could turn shit into chocolate cake and sell it to equally clueless execs.
Fast forward 15 years, and I finally had to sit through it. Normally, I try to not waste two precious hours of my life, but there I went. Right afterward, I needed something to clear my head, so I gave The Big Short a shot, hoping it might wash away the aftertaste. Better. But then there’s Michael Burry, with his $800 million gain over three years on $1.2 billion in assets—about a 20% annulized return—risking his entire fund and personal bankruptcy, with not a hint of diversification. His risk-adjusted return must have been so deeply in the red that, yet again, our American friends managed to make a hero out of a lunatic. This isn’t how you invest, and I don’t care if he called the crash (three years early). There’s some sort of market crash every 5-10 years; any broken clock will get this right.
It is fun though to make heros out of degenerate gamblers and it sells well. But I wouldn’t give Michael a penny to invest. Trying to make a buck powered by negative emotions, zero diversification, and no sense of the larger forces and cash flows driving markets is not the answer.
MacroDozer 2024: Performance Chart
Here we go again with more substance. The MacroDozer Performance Chart for 2024 has kicked off with a notional fund value of $100 million. Green dots mark profitable trades, and orange dots indicate losses. All trades are fully settled and banked; no paper fuss.
The summer was a bit quieter. We took a shot with Copper and another Donald trade, but the real harvesting is happening now. Here’s a little snapshot so you know what’s cooking. Our performance up to October stands at 52%, far outpacing the S&P 500’s 20%. The market's having a lucky year; with an average market return of 10%, that delta would be even wider.
All trades in the chart can be reviewed and verified on our website under the Chat section; transparency is our priority. This is our first year making every single trade public. Trade entries are free to view, while trade exits are accessible with a small annual fee—and you can easily explore them with a free trial.
If any of this seems complex or a bit much to wrap your head around, just reach out—I’ll teach you myself. Use me while I’m still available and cheap ;-)
We’ve also reopened the MacroDozer fund to friends and family. The minimum investment has doubled, though—it needs to make sense for us, too.
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Closing Chapter
You will receive updates on the Performance Snapshot every quarter.
I'm Juri von Randow, macrodozing like there's no tomorrow. Feel free to pass me on. Warm regards.
All articles are purely educational; they are not tailored to any particular individual or portfolio and do not constitute investment advice. Let us know if you are interested in implementing any of our ideas. We can help or point you in the right direction.