MacroDozer 2024: Performance Snapshot

Insights to Outcomes: 29.7% Profit Year-To-Date

Executive Tease

• Marc Cohodes and Three Clowns.

• Food, Shelter, Growth.

• MacroDozer: Beyond the Benchmark.

Driving Forces

Writing and ranting about the capital markets and their players is our passion. This includes finding the right taglines for cartoons that poke fun at those trying to make a buck; this fishy art form has too many points of attack. One of the few public figures we don't disrespect is Marc Cohodes, who is fortunate that his truths closely align with the objective truths in our system. Calling worshiped investors like Ackman, O'Leary, or Cuban clowns is a good start and refreshing when the rest of the world is wetting its pants in the din of clowning.

Long story short: we love to expose actors. But we also need to make money for food, shelter, and growth, and we don't have much time to publish long articles regularly. That's why we've started sharing most of our trades on MacroDozer Chat, with an average trade performance of 42.4% and a total fund performance of 29.7% year-to-date. We also rant about the markets and tout our most promising next big trades in Tuesday Target - if you want to get offended, check it out.

No bragging: we're back and in good shape—yes—but more importantly, all these trades are being released for free again to show Uncle Joe and Aunt Mary that they don't have to own unproductive, non-cash-generating cryptocurrencies or seasonally-hyped stocks that will work their way from their anxious brains into their fluffy guts and drive them into long-term failure. Beating the S&P 500 after fees is possible without global pyramid schemes or harlequins in hedge fund garb.

By a significant margin.

And once you realize that exiting trades is more important than entering them, you need to join the advanced league and participate in the Exclusive Chat; not quite free, but cheap AF. In it, we announce repairs, adjustments, and exits from trades, turning paper profits into performance. All real time, all good.

MacroDozer 2024: Performance Chart

Let's get to the substance. We kick off MacroDozer Performance Chart for 2024, starting with a notional fund value of $100 million. Green dots represent profitable trades, and orange dots represent losses. All trades are settled and banked; no paper fuss.

Most of our trades were positive, except for XBI Biotech, which we should have turned profitable too. Unfortunately, we chose a mediocre roll technique and must chalk this up to a learning experience. Our second Gamestop greed play was also slightly negative; no comment. Our performance to date is +29.7%, outpacing the S&P 500's +11.1%.

We intentionally drew this performance chart like a child so that we don't start taking ourselves too seriously. Even though we know how to use a mouse and how to click buy and sell. Besides, when we beat the market, we can paint and draw as much as we want—maybe—that’s what Mom said...

All trades in the performance chart can be tracked on our website under Chat; it couldn't be more transparent. Even a four-year-old monkey could figure out what we do if they knew how to move that mouse.

If you're interested, you'll find out. If you're not interested enough but still want to know what's happening, we can walk you through it at MacroDozer Academy or Upwork University.

Recap: MacroDozer Playbook

Let's briefly recap the rules of the game. We initiate trades only when confident, particularly in situations marked by high implied volatility, promising market and price dynamics, and a profound understanding of the fundamentals.

Each trade is limited to a maximum of 5% of total funds. For a notional $100 million fund value, $5 million is deployed. This means only liquid assets can be traded, and entry and exit must be gradual. If we suffer a total loss, the portfolio will fall by a maximum of 5%. If we profit by 50%, the portfolio will increase by 2.5%.

We never utilize more than 50% of the total funds. Depending on opportunities, 20-40% is usually employed, with the rest kept as a buffer.

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MacroDozer Chat - Explained

Trade openings are published in the Public Chat, while trade repairs and closings are announced in the Exclusive Chat. Both can be accessed on the website under Chat. If you are using your cell phone, you may need the Substack app. If you want to be notified, send a smiley in the chat, and you'll be the first to know.

Below is a screenshot of the recently closed ARM trade from the Exclusive Chat.

Quod erat demonstrandum; for now. We strive to grind higher, running the marathon to the power of consistency rather than sprinting to the futility of clowns.

Closing Chapter

You will receive updates on the Performance Snapshot every quarter. If you don't, check the Chat.

I'm Juri von Randow, macrodozing like there's no tomorrow. Feel free to pass me on. Warm regards.

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All articles are purely educational; they are not tailored to any particular individual or portfolio and do not constitute investment advice. Let us know if you are interested in implementing any of our ideas. We can help or point you in the right direction.