MacroDozer: Tuesday Target

🧠 Elite Trader Plan

Need a calm, step-by-step options plan that grows accounts and tames big swings? Check out the Elite Trader Plan. In 4–8 sessions, I will bring you fully up to speed, all included in the plan.

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📅 60-Minute Mentorship Call

More time = more value.

📌 Advanced Options
📌 Risk Management
📌 Capital Efficiency

Rate: $145 | 👉 Book 60-Minute Call

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Tuesday Target is written by Juri von Randow — founder of MacroDozer, professional investor, and trading mentor — delivering institutional-grade trade ideas, market insights, and strategy every week for serious1 investors.

🚨 Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance ≠ future results.

If you are only here for the money, look elsewhere. Success requires a dedication to the craft.

US Oil (USO): Try Downloading a Barrel

Juri von Randow — Tue, 15 Sep 2026 13:15:33 GMT

🎯 TUESDAY TARGET: US Oil (USO) | 👇 Reveal the Play

Wall Street is pricing the human race as if it were about to upload itself. Trillions for data centers, zero patience for anything with a heartbeat. Inconvenient detail: we still have bodies. They need somewhere to go, something to wear and help staying alive, and no software does any of that. Three places the market forgot to look:

Space. US mall owner Macerich has 94% of its space leased, up from 92% a year ago, and its tenants are ringing up record sales per square foot. A signed lease is an opinion with a bill attached. A retail-apocalypse headline is an opinion with none.

Clothes. Adidas, one of the German stocks the world calls sick, sold €6.7 billion of shoes and shirts between April and June, its best quarter ever. Your phone can pick the outfit. It cannot wear it.

Medicine. China’s XtalPi builds drugs the way a factory builds cars: AI designs the molecule, robots test it, a lab ships the result. In November 2025 its subsidiary Ailux signed up American giant Lilly as a customer, with an upfront payment and further payments tied to progress. Most American biotechs are still asking investors for money. XtalPi is already sending invoices.

Bodies are the one demand curve that needs no miracle. Own the businesses already billing it, at prices where the breakthrough comes free.

Below, as always, the minimum you need to know to get a feel for what’s cooking:

The Fed Hikes Because the Market Told It To

Wednesday’s 25bp hike is priced at roughly 90%, and Goldman now expects it while admitting it sees no economic case: core PCE has slowed to a 2.5% pace over three months. Warsh hikes to protect credibility. The bond market approves, since a hike now flattens the curve. In past tightening cycles the S&P lost about 2% over three months, then gained 9% the following year.

Two Chokepoints, One Energy Shock

Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, the bypass around Hormuz carrying four to five million barrels a day, is shut for several weeks after drone strikes, with Yanbu inventories covering exports for about a week. The Houthis sit at Bab el-Mandeb, threatening a second strait. Brent settled near $106 on Monday, and Gulf shipping should stay disrupted through 2027 at least.

The AI Leaders Ask for a Speed Limit

Anthropic’s Dario Amodei, backed by Altman and Musk, called for slower frontier model development. Trump refused, and skeptics read it as a moat against cheaper open-source rivals. Monday’s damage: the broad AI basket fell over 4% while the S&P ex-AI gained 0.4%. Hedge funds had bought tech in ten of eleven sessions beforehand, so the timing hurt. The warning still implies the technology works.

Consumers Have Given Up, Which Is the Signal

September consumer sentiment collapsed to 47.8, expectations to 45.8, just off record lows, with year-ahead inflation fears at 4.6% and real wages negative for five months. Republicans soured too. Yet Goldman’s retail conference this week has a habit of lifting the retail ETF XRT, seven of the last ten times, because positioning is this dreadful. Bad mood, low bar, easy surprise.

The Midterm Calendar Votes Too

Since 1974 the median stock return from early August to midterm elections is zero. Trump has promised $5,000 checks if Republicans keep both chambers, but Polymarket gives that under 15%. Iran and the Houthis have every incentive to keep diesel expensive until November 3, and Vance and Rubio reportedly expect the war to last into 2029. Stocks propped up by Washington may lose that prop before the election.

Trump Invites Chinese Carmakers In

Almost unnoticed on Friday, Trump said he would accept Chinese automakers building plants on US soil if they hire Americans, while keeping imports banned. Xi visits later this month, with AI on the agenda. The US auto lobby wants a permanent ban on Chinese connected vehicles before Congress adjourns. The 1980s Japanese playbook, now for BYD.

Germany: Sell the Country, Buy the Index

The DAX has matched the S&P since 2022 despite two recession years. Cars and chemicals are 12% of the index, Germany only 20% of its sales; the rest is defense, electrification and software. Goldman forecasts 17% earnings growth in 2027 at 15 times earnings, and pension reform should turn German savers into buyers. Risk: a state election on September 20 where the CDU may miss 5%.

THE WEEK: Three Central Banks and a Record Expiry

Today brings China’s August activity data, UK jobs, Germany’s ZEW survey, Bessent’s annual testimony and a $13 billion 20-year auction. Tomorrow stacks US retail sales, expected to rebound 0.8% after July’s drop, with the Fed statement at 2pm and Warsh at 2:30. Thursday: Bank of England, housing starts, jobless claims and a $19 billion TIPS sale. Friday: Bank of Japan, industrial production and a record-sized quarterly options expiry.

One lesson from last week’s live Elite Trader call. Real portfolio, real positions, a few minutes long. The full session and the archive sit behind the Elite Trader Plan:

Tactics for this Tape
Run a barbell. Keep the energy-plus-tech pair that has carried 2026, hold cash-rich defensives on the other side, and treat 7,600 on the S&P as the line that decides exposure. Skew sits at one-year flats, so buy index protection before the break, never after. Trim extended winners into strength, add only on tested support, and keep powder dry for Wednesday’s Fed and Friday’s expiry.
Don’t guess. Reach out. Let’s build a capital-efficient yet risk-managed strategy from the option chain up.

Get Rich Overnight with Options? Yeah Right...

TUESDAY TARGET: US Oil (USO)

Oil is where the music plays. Central banks and Friday’s options expiry barely touch it; the brutal force of human nature does. Two chokepoints, a Saudi pipeline out, and a deal headline every afternoon produce a market that swings hard intraday yet keeps returning to the same zone, while oil’s implied volatility runs at roughly half the level it carried the last time crude sat here.

The setup: sell October, buy November. You sell the near-dated premium that decays fastest under headline whiplash and own the November premium that holds or gains if the standoff drags on.

I will price this fresh once the market opens. The target has to be published on Tuesday, the trade does not have to be placed on Tuesday. Shortlist, observe, and snipe when you feel comfortable.

The inspiration comes straight from one of the Daily Doze trade boards.

Treat it as food for thought rather than an official entry. Official trade entries appear in the Trade Alerts section, where the fresh setups land first.

☕ The Daily Doze

A live read on the market, refreshed through the trading day. Eight boards.

Every Tuesday Target trade walks straight off one of these boards; the Daily Doze pays for itself before your first sip.

Refill your cup → Daily Doze

🧠 Elite Trader Plan

Need a calm, step-by-step options plan that grows accounts and tames big swings? Check out the Elite Trader Plan. In 4–8 sessions, I will bring you fully up to speed, all included in the plan.

📅 60-Minute Mentorship Call

More time = more value.

📌 Advanced Options
📌 Risk Management
📌 Capital Efficiency

Rate: $145 | 👉 Book 60-Minute Call

Elite Trader: $110 | 👉 Book Elite Trader Call

🚨 Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance ≠ future results.

If you are only here for the money, look elsewhere. Success requires a dedication to the craft.

ExxonMobil (XOM): Fighting Gravity

Juri von Randow — Tue, 08 Sep 2026 13:55:07 GMT

🎯 TUESDAY TARGET: ExxonMobil (XOM) | 👇 Reveal the Play

Washington wants cheaper long-term borrowing and a stronger yen. The Treasury doubled its long-bond buybacks to push yields down, a few billion against forty trillion of debt, then joined Tokyo to prop up the yen, the first joint move since 1998. Japan paid by selling nearly ninety billion dollars of Treasuries, which pushes yields back up. One hand pours a bucket into the pool, the other asks a friend to pull the plug.

Fed chair Warsh has the same problem. His boss demands 1% while the 30-year Treasury yields 5.3%, its highest since 2007, because bondholders fear inflation more than they fear the Fed. Here’s what I think: the hawk’s move and the dove’s move are the same move. Hike once, kill the fear, and the 30-year falls further than the overnight rate rises. Hold, and the long bond keeps pricing a central bank that takes orders.

Expensive money in Washington, expensive power in the counties. Elon Musk stopped arguing. Counties are freezing datacenter permits over power bills, so SpaceX plans a $100 billion launch site in Louisiana, beside Henry Hub where America prices the natural gas Starship burns, to put datacenters into an orbit that never leaves the sunlight: power around the clock, no grid, no county board. Position with the leavers: own power, fuel and launch capacity. Treasury, the Fed and the county boards will still be arguing with gravity and the bill in 2029.

Below, as always, the minimum you need to know to get a feel for what’s cooking:

Crude Is the Headline, Diesel Is the Bill

Brent trades above $98 after weekend attacks on tankers and Iran’s threat to declare an exclusion zone across the Gulf. Ship traffic through Hormuz is at its lowest since May. The sharper pain sits in refined products: US diesel at record prices, Shanghai crude above $100, and a strategic reserve near 287 million barrels, little cushion left.

Midterms: The Sweep Nobody Is Hedging

Prediction markets put a Democratic sweep of both chambers near 50%, a split Congress at 35% and a Republican hold at 10%, with presidential approval in the mid-thirties. A sweep points to higher taxes and tighter regulation, a weaker dollar and lower bond yields as growth cools.

A Smarter Model Changes the Demand Curve

OpenAI’s Astra claims a generational leap; SoftBank and Oracle rallied as proxies. Bulls say smarter models create new uses, so spending keeps climbing. The trap: Astra finishes tasks with fewer tokens, the units AI is billed by, and if prices fall faster than usage grows, spare computing capacity becomes the risk.

Food Inflation Arrives Uninvited

The UN food price index climbed to 133.3 in August, its highest since 2022, every category rising: sugar up 12% on the month, wheat 15% above a year ago. A broad agriculture index posted its largest monthly gain since 2011. Record diesel, pricier fertilizer, El Niño and shipping trouble in the Black Sea and Hormuz push the same way. Central banks can slow demand. Wheat grows on its own schedule.

Hard Assets Refuse to Blink

Gold holds above $4,400 and central banks keep buying dips. Copper hit a record in London on supply worries and tariff fears. Bitcoin slipped below $79,000 after touching $82,000. Brazil is the crowded corner: EWZ has rallied 15% in three weeks as runoff polls flipped toward Bolsonaro, the candidate markets read as fiscally tighter than Lula. Call open interest sits at records, so the next poll decides the direction.

China Refills Banks Nobody Borrows From

Beijing injects $56 billion into eight banks and insurers, the largest recapitalization in nearly two decades. The reason is weak demand: Chinese households and companies repaid more loans than they took out in July, a first on record, and credit growth sits at its weakest since 2008. Fresh capital keeps the banks safe. It cannot make anyone borrow. Speculators are buying call spreads on Chinese indexes anyway, betting Beijing forces a rebound.

THE WEEK: Two Inflation Prints Decide the Fed

Markets reopen today after Labor Day with OpenAI on stage at Goldman’s tech conference and a 3-year Treasury auction. Apple’s event lands Wednesday. Thursday stacks PPI, jobless claims, the ECB’s near-certain hike, and Oracle and Adobe earnings after the close. Friday brings CPI and Michigan sentiment. Fed officials stay silent in their pre-meeting blackout; the decision itself comes September 16, with the Bank of Japan and record options expiry two days later

One lesson from last week’s live Elite Trader call. Real portfolio, real positions, a few minutes long. The full session and the archive sit behind the Elite Trader Plan:

Tactics for this Tape
Hedge while it is cheap: skew at the first percentile means index puts cost less than they have all year. Keep energy and power exposure as the inflation hedge. Avoid chasing first-half leaders; leadership flips weekly. Hold cash at 4%-plus and a shopping list for mid-October, when buybacks and earnings return. Size Brazil and China as options, never as core.
Don’t guess. Reach out. Let’s build a capital-efficient yet risk-managed strategy from the option chain up.

Get Rich Overnight with Options? Yeah Right...

TUESDAY TARGET: ExxonMobil (XOM)

Slightly bullish iron condor on ExxonMobil never hurt anybody.

Oil options are priced for a war, the chart shows a stock grinding higher along its 50-day. We take the difference. Sell the October 16 iron condor, 38 days out, with the short put resting on the rising 50-day and the short call above the August high.

Earnings land after expiry. The machine says sell energy premium. I say collect it while everyone else argues with gravity.

The inspiration is taken straight from one of the Daily Doze trade boards.

This is not an official trade entry, just food for thought. Official trade entries are posted in the Trade Alerts section. Over there, we relentlessly innovate and deliver novel setups.

All our recent trades and the reasoning behind them can be found in the Trade Alerts section. Think of it as a behind-the-scenes look into our process, so you can decide if it’s worth adopting (or adapting) in your own strategy.

☕ NEW: The Daily Doze

A live read on the market, refreshed through the trading day. Eight boards.

Every Tuesday Target trade walks straight off one of these boards; the Daily Doze pays for itself before your first sip.

Refill your cup → Daily Doze

🧠 Elite Trader Plan

And if you need a calm, step-by-step options plan that grows accounts and tames big swings, check out the Elite Trader Plan. In 4–8 sessions, we will bring you fully up to speed, all included in the plan.

📅 60-Minute Mentorship Call

More time = more value.

📌 Advanced Options
📌 Risk Management
📌 Capital Efficiency

Rate: $145 | 👉 Book 60-Minute Call

Elite Trader: $110 | 👉 Book Elite Trader Call

⏳ 30-Minute Session

Less time = more often.

📚 In-Depth Learning
🧠 Strategy Breakdowns
🔍 Trade Reviews

Rate: $75 | 👉 Book 30-Minute Call

Elite Trader: $55 | 👉 Book Elite Trader Call

🚨 Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance ≠ future results.

If you are only here for the money, look elsewhere. Success requires a dedication to the craft.

Amplitude (AMPL): Keynes Was Wrong. You'll Still Get Rich.

Juri von Randow — Tue, 01 Sep 2026 12:53:16 GMT

🎯 TUESDAY TARGET: Amplitude (AMPL) | 👇 Reveal the Play

In 1930, with machines blamed for mass unemployment, John Maynard Keynes coined the term technological unemployment and told everyone to relax: within a hundred years his grandchildren would be eight times richer and work fifteen hours a week. Scorecard today, four years before his deadline: living standards up roughly eightfold, the jobs came back, and we still grind forty hours. The pessimists were right about the pain, the optimist was right about the wealth, and the forty-hour week outlived them both.

Debt hysteria carries the same track record. Britain beat Napoleon in 1815 carrying debt above 200% of GDP, then ran the planet for a century and quietly retired the last of those war bonds in 2015. Andrew Jackson killed America’s central bank, paid the national debt down to zero in 1835 and got the Panic of 1837, the worst crash of the century, as a thank-you note. Last month the US crossed $40 trillion, gold and bitcoin ripped, and the doom clock keeps ticking.

Which brings us to the next machine, and this one targets the marketers. AI assistants now restock fridges, pick sneakers and haggle phone plans, and software has no impulses to work on. The “only two left” banner, the influencer with the discount code, the sponsored listing at the top of the page: fifty years of tricks built for a human brain, and the brain is leaving the store. The bot compares every shop at once, reads every review and remembers every late parcel. Price, quality and reliability win. Charm loses.

The machine has won every round for two centuries. Learn it, use it, own it.

Below, as always, the minimum you need to know, and not a word more:

Warsh Makes September Live

Kevin Warsh used Jackson Hole to end forward guidance, restate the 2% target as fixed, and call financial conditions anything except restrictive. Markets moved September hike odds from roughly 35% to 60%. Two prints now decide the meeting: Friday’s payrolls and the September 11 CPI. Warsh has criticized false precision in data, yet he just handed traders two exact benchmarks to judge him by.

Software Rises From the Dead

Salesforce jumped 22% on results and an Anthropic partnership, and the broad software ETF posted its best day in twenty years. The disruption narrative flipped to monetization: incumbents with proprietary data and distribution are repricing their installed base upward with AI features. Hedge funds are buying aggressively, yet net exposure remains low. Semis versus software was the pain trade of the summer, both ways.

Everyone Is Bearish at the Highs

Retail bears in the AAII survey have averaged above 40% for three weeks while the S&P sits 1.5% from a record and the VIX closed at 14.4. Hedge fund net exposure is at its 1st percentile over one year. Historically, bearish sentiment above 40% with VIX under 20 produced average gains of 1.1% in a month and 2.9% in three, with a 75% hit rate. The pain trade points up.

China Leads 69 of 74 Critical Technologies

Twenty years ago the US led China 60 to 3 in critical technology research. The latest count shows China ahead in 69 of 74, installing ten times America’s industrial robots and producing a third of global manufacturing. Beijing now applies the solar-and-EV playbook to seeds and farm robotics. Meanwhile 244 Chinese government vessels swarmed Taiwan in a record month, three weeks before Xi meets Trump.

Humanoids: Goldman Multiplies Its Forecast by Four

Goldman now expects 75,000 humanoid robot shipments this year, 890,000 by 2030 and 6.5 million by 2035, a $138 billion market, up from 1.4 million previously. Warehouses come first; Amazon already runs over a million robots across 300 sites. Costs should fall 7% a year. Unitree’s IPO is already wobbling on bubble fears, which is exactly how every infrastructure boom starts.

THE WEEK: Payrolls Decide, Waller Talks, Broadcom Reports

ISM manufacturing and JOLTS open the week today, the Fed’s Beige Book follows Wednesday, and Thursday brings ISM services plus Governor Waller, the dove who turned hawk after losing the chair race. Broadcom and Dell report. Friday’s payrolls carry the weight: a second negative print and the September hike wobbles. Beyond that, CPI lands September 11, Treasury buybacks start September 9, and the Fed decides September 16.

Earnings season never ends. Last week’s Elite Trader call laid out our checklist for it, from expected move to a neutral entry before the close. Six minutes, free to watch:

Tactics for this Tape
Carry less directional exposure into Friday and CPI, and let cheap options do the work: one-month index calls for the upside, three-month index put spreads for the downside, and puts on high-yield ETFs if you want to bet that record-tight credit spreads finally widen. Favor Nasdaq over small caps, refiners over crude, and buy gold and bitcoin on dips rather than strength.
Don’t guess. Reach out. Let’s build a capital-efficient yet risk-managed strategy from the option chain up.

Get Rich Overnight with Options? Yeah Right...

TUESDAY TARGET: Amplitude (AMPL)

Amplitude runs the analytics that tell software companies what users actually do inside their apps, exactly the data an AI agent needs before it can act. The stock bled from $15 to under $6 over eighteen months, then doubled since July and just cleared its long-term downtrend on the weekly chart, with revenue growing 18% while software flips from AI victim to AI winner.

We take the January 2027 $15 call at about $2.05, 136 days of runway, breakeven near $15 if the move arrives within two months. Years of dead money, one quarter of proof.

Be prepared to sit on an 80% loss at some point on the way up, so size the paper trade accordingly, or use a mental stop, or wait for a pullback if AMPL is generous enough to revisit the green Fibonacci zone. The machine says shares win. I say take it as a longer-term Autobahn trade and swing for the fences with a plain long call.

The idea, of course, is taken straight from the Daily Doze Autobahn trade board, free to read for every subscriber:

⓵ AUTOBAHN: Growth at Full Speed

This is not an official trade entry, just food for thought. Official trade entries are posted in the Trade Alerts section. Over there, we relentlessly innovate and deliver novel setups.

☕ NEW: The Daily Doze

A live read on the market, refreshed through the trading day. Eight boards.

Every Tuesday Target trade walks straight off one of these boards; the Daily Doze pays for itself before your first sip.

Refill your cup → Daily Doze

🧠 Elite Trader Plan

📅 60-Minute Mentorship Call

More time = more value.

📌 Advanced Options
📌 Risk Management
📌 Capital Efficiency

Rate: $145 | 👉 Book 60-Minute Call

Elite Trader: $110 | 👉 Book Elite Trader Call

⏳ 30-Minute Session

Less time = more often.

📚 In-Depth Learning
🧠 Strategy Breakdowns
🔍 Trade Reviews

Rate: $75 | 👉 Book 30-Minute Call

Elite Trader: $55 | 👉 Book Elite Trader Call

🚨 Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance ≠ future results.

If you are only here for the money, look elsewhere. Success requires a dedication to the craft.

CrowdStrike (CRWD): Even Princes Pay Interest Now

Juri von Randow — Tue, 25 Aug 2026 12:43:24 GMT

🎯 TUESDAY TARGET: CrowdStrike (CRWD) | 👇 Reveal the Play

Everyone’s screaming about 5% yields like the sky is falling. Quick history check: the long bond spent most of the last sixty years around these levels. The real freak show was the fifteen years of free money after 2008, which taught a whole generation of investors the wrong baseline. Today’s crisis is simply the old price tag coming back on.

And the price tag applies to everyone now. Even Saudi Arabia, the world’s most famous bottomless checkbook, just discovered capital discipline: the 170-kilometer mirror city quietly stalled after $50 billion, the giant cube in Riyadh is on ice, the golf league is behind on its bills, and Newcastle is selling its stars. When princes start demanding a return on capital, the free-money era has officially been buried.

Here’s the twist the doomers miss: scarcity sharpens. When Napoleon pulled Britain’s farmhands off to war, wages jumped and farms mechanized, and the Industrial Revolution accelerated. Fresh research shows the lowest-birthrate countries out-innovated and out-grew everyone for seventy years. Expensive money and scarce people force sharper tools. Sounds like our home turf.

Below, as always, the minimum you need to know, and not a word more:

The Squeeze Behind the Curtain

Trend-following funds hold near-record short positions in Treasuries. Goldman estimates a two-sigma price rally would trigger the largest forced short covering ever recorded. Engineer a bounce, let the machines chase it, and 10-year yields could slide toward 4.30% right before the midterms. Watch for aggressive squeeze attempts latest on Friday.

Warsh’s High-Wire Friday

Jackson Hole’s keynote lands Friday at 10am EDT, the new Fed Chair’s first. Markets need him to defend the 2% inflation target with real conviction, even at the cost of friction with the White House. A vague, big-picture speech would confirm suspicions that nobody in Washington prioritizes inflation, inviting the bond market to resume testing everyone’s pain threshold.

The $2.3 Trillion Due Date

AI’s problem now has a price and a date. The price: token costs collapsed nearly half since May as competition and free mystery models deflate the very product all that hardware produces. The date: the four biggest US cloud providers carry roughly $2.3 trillion in contracted computing rentals, nearly half owed by OpenAI and Anthropic alone, with mortgage-style payments starting 2027-2028 regardless of demand. And it keeps growing: Broadcom added a $100 billion off-balance-sheet debt deal Friday, and its default insurance promptly jumped.

Economic D-Day for Tehran

Washington sanctioned nearly 60 Iran-linked entities and threatened secondary sanctions across shipping, gold, aviation, technology, and digital assets, with a major financial institution reportedly next. Oil fell on the news as tanker traffic through Hormuz resumed under US protection. The market now prices economic strangulation as de-escalation. A cornered regime rarely honors that assumption for long.

Bitcoin’s $2.7 Billion Bonfire

Bitcoin ripped 20% in three days, its biggest such rally since early 2023, briefly touching $80,000 while $2.73 billion in shorts got liquidated, the largest crypto short-wipeout on record. The debasement crowd reads Treasury intervention as money printing. Last time a similar three-day burst appeared, price rolled back to its 200-day average before resuming.

THE WEEK: Three Tests in Five Days

The calendar packs the year’s remaining suspense into one stretch: Nvidia earnings Wednesday, July core PCE with consensus near 20bps, and Friday’s double feature at 10am EDT, Warsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote alongside the BLS payroll benchmark revisions. Add 2-, 5-, and 7-year auctions, RBA minutes, and thin late-August liquidity, and the implied S&P move of 1.31% looks optimistic.

Tactics for this Tape
Stay nimble and keep positions small into Friday. Squeezes cut both ways here, so defined-risk structures beat naked directional bets, and hard assets plus boring balance sheets remain the quiet bid. Let Washington fight the bond market with your risk pre-defined, and keep dry powder for the dislocations this week will almost certainly serve.
Don’t guess. Reach out. Let’s build a capital-efficient yet risk-managed strategy from the option chain up.

Get Rich Overnight with Options? Yeah Right...

TUESDAY TARGET: CrowdStrike (CRWD)

Potential earnings trade, strikes dummies for now, to be put on right before earnings call and adjusted for share price moves until right before earnings.

CrowdStrike reports tomorrow after close. Ahead of earnings, option prices balloon, traders pay up for big moves. We take the other side and sell that expensive premium through an iron condor: defined risk, and we profit as long as the stock stays inside our break-evens, which sit wider than the move the market itself expects.

After the report, the inflated premium deflates fast, and that deflation is our edge. Boring by design, exactly how we like earnings.

Trade, for now, passed the Daily Doze → Earnings Grenade test:

This is not an official trade entry, just food for thought. Official trade entries are posted in the Trade Alerts section. Over there, we relentlessly innovate and deliver novel setups.

☕ NEW: The Daily Doze

A live read on the market, refreshed through the trading day. Eight boards.

Every Tuesday Target trade walks straight off one of these boards; the Daily Doze pays for itself before your first sip.

Refill your cup → Daily Doze

🧠 Elite Trader Plan

📅 60-Minute Mentorship Call

More time = more value.

📌 Advanced Options
📌 Risk Management
📌 Capital Efficiency

Rate: $145 | 👉 Book 60-Minute Call

Elite Trader: $110 | 👉 Book Elite Trader Call

⏳ 30-Minute Session

Less time = more often.

📚 In-Depth Learning
🧠 Strategy Breakdowns
🔍 Trade Reviews

Rate: $75 | 👉 Book 30-Minute Call

Elite Trader: $55 | 👉 Book Elite Trader Call

🚨 Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance ≠ future results.

If you are only here for the money, look elsewhere. Success requires a dedication to the craft.

20+ Treasuries (TLT): Korean Degens & Dancing Rothschilds

Juri von Randow — Tue, 18 Aug 2026 10:05:30 GMT

🎯 TUESDAY TARGET: 20+ Treasuries (TLT) | 👇 Reveal the Play

Markets look sedated. VIX at year lows, single-stock volatility melting, everyone tanning. Want the punchline behind the calm? Korean retail traders, the same crowd that swore off stocks two weeks ago, are back, funding juicy 20% coupons by selling billions in exotic autocallable notes on Nvidia, Micron, and Tesla. In plain English: they collect rent for insuring the market against big moves, dealers hedge by dumping volatility, and the whole tape gets pinned. Roughly $300 billion of this paper has quietly coiled the market into a spring. History says these things grind lower but gap violently higher, forcing everyone to chase.

Meanwhile, the professionals deserve some humility too. Jane Street, the trading machine that ignites momentum and skims the spread both ways, just posted a $15 billion loss in July, its first down month in a decade, flattened by the very reflexes it built. The herd-hunters became the herd.

And the oldest money in Europe? The Rothschilds’ Monaco bank openly calls AI a probable bubble, then advises clients to stay invested, own the shovel-makers, and watch credit for the exit signal. Two centuries of banking wisdom, distilled: dance while the music plays, near the door.

Below, as always, all you need to know and not a word more:

AI Debt Is Eating the Treasury Market

Corporate debt issuance is running 61% above last year, and AI-related borrowing alone has hit $269 billion year-to-date, roughly twelve times the annual average of the past decade. All this paper competes directly with Washington for the same bond buyers. The result: a structurally steeper curve, crowded-out duration demand, and a creeping fear that nobody controls long-term yields anymore.

Oil: Volatility as a Weapon

The Strait stays closed, Iran turns openly offensive, and Trump threatens Oman. Yet oil sits in the mid-80s. Washington’s trick: firing contradictory headlines daily, whipsawing prices so violently that traders’ risk models force them to stay small. Nobody can hold a position long enough to push crude higher. Meanwhile inventories drain by millions of barrels daily. Break the range, and this suppressed spring snaps violently.

Worst Season, Zero Fear

Since 1990, the equal-weight S&P has suffered at least a 7% pullback in nearly every August-to-October stretch of midterm years. We enter that exact window with the index at record highs, volatility at yearly lows, and, remarkably, not a single 80% downside-volume day all year, against an annual average of twenty-one. Protection is historically cheap right when the calendar turns hostile.

Hedge Funds Went All-In Last Week

Prime brokerage data shows hedge funds bought US equities every single day last week at the second-fastest pace in a year, led by tech and semiconductors. Meanwhile gross leverage sits near one-year lows, meaning the fuel tank for further chasing is full. Positioning washouts in July have flipped into a re-risking cycle. Momentum begets momentum.

Gold Wins Both Ways

Gold reclaimed $4,400 with central banks buying, Western ETF flows returning, and the biggest fund inflows since January. The beauty of the setup: bullion rallies whether markets fear inflation or deflation, hawkish policy error or dovish surrender. With Fed-hike risk fading and fiscal credibility eroding, forecasts near $4,900 by year-end look less heroic than they sound.

Most Data Centers Exist Only in PowerPoint

Of the 500 gigawatts of announced data centers, analysts judge only a third credible, 5% are actually under way, and local opposition has already stalled $286 billion worth. Here’s the catch: utilities, grid, and power stocks are priced off those announcements, while actual utility capacity utilization sits at decade lows. When betting on the electricity boom, check who the tenant is. Hyperscaler-backed projects get built. Promoter slideware doesn’t.

THE WEEK: Minutes, Retailers, 25-Year Auction Record

Wednesday’s FOMC minutes headline a quiet calendar, revealing whether the hawkish appetite extended beyond July’s three dissenters. Retail earnings from Home Depot, Target, and Walmart test the softening consumer. Wednesday’s 20-year auction could become the most expensive Treasury issuance in 25 years, and Friday’s flash PMIs close things out. Jackson Hole looms August 28, where Warsh finally shows his cards.

Tactics for this Tape
Stay invested, but stop chasing. With volatility at yearly lows, protection costs pocket change right as the calendar turns hostile. Trim stretched winners, keep powder dry, and let options do the heavy lifting: cheap index hedges plus selective upside in the purged names. When insurance is this underpriced, wealth preservation and opportunity finally cost the same.
Don’t guess. Reach out. Let’s build a capital-efficient yet risk-managed strategy from the option chain up.

Get Rich Overnight with Options? Yeah Right...

TUESDAY TARGET: 20+ Treasuries (TLT)

Our newest segment Daily Doze, still in beta, is already spitting out trades on an hourly basis: quant at its best. The options premium board wants us to have a deeper look at TLT:

Everyone hates long bonds right now. The 30-year just printed its highest yield since 2007, trend followers are max short, and Anything But Bonds is Wall Street’s favorite acronym. That is exactly the setup for a stall: sellers exhausted, yet every rally capped by trillion-dollar supply. Soft jobs data limits the downside, relentless issuance plus Japan fear limits the upside, and TLT likely chops sideways while both camps catch their breath. We sell that indecision with a 31-day iron condor and let time decay pay us daily while the tug-of-war continues.

This is not an official trade entry, just food for thought. Official trade entries are posted in the Trade Alerts section. Over there, we relentlessly innovate and deliver novel setups.

☕ NEW: The Daily Doze

A live read on the market, refreshed through the trading day. Eight boards.

⓵ AUTOBAHN: Growth at Full Speed (free)
⓶ BOILER ROOM: Premium Worth Selling
⓷ TIME MACHINE: Sell Front, Own Back
⓸ CHEAP GAMMA: Movement on Sale
⓹ EARNINGS GRENADE: Fear vs Reality
⓺ GAMMA MAP: Walls, Pins, Trapdoors
⓻ ULTIMATE BEAR: Weak Names, Ready to Short
⓼ DEEP VALUE: Historically Cheap, Still Growing

Every Tuesday Target trade walks straight off one of these boards; the Daily Doze pays for itself before your first sip.

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Elite Trader: $55 | 👉 Book Elite Trader Call

🚨 Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance ≠ future results.

If you are only here for the money, look elsewhere. Success requires a dedication to the craft.

Devon Energy (DVN): Forbidden Fruit, Apple Goes Red

Juri von Randow — Tue, 11 Aug 2026 11:36:30 GMT

🎯 TUESDAY TARGET: Devon Energy (DVN) | 👇 Reveal the Play

The week’s favorite pastime: screaming bubble at Nvidia’s $500 billion financing carousel. Fine, scream away. Meanwhile, the most telling AI headline slipped past almost unnoticed: Apple is testing memory chips from CXMT, a Chinese manufacturer on the Pentagon’s blacklist over alleged army ties, and lobbying the White House for a blessing. HP and Acer skipped the courtesy call; their laptops already ship with Chinese memory outside the US.

Why would the world’s most image-obsessed company risk a Washington firestorm? Because AI demand has swallowed global memory production whole. The Korean-American cartel, SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron, SanDisk, is sold out through 2027, DRAM spot prices went vertical, and Apple calls the pricing unsustainable while quietly raising iPhone prices to cover it.

Here’s what I think: nobody begs their geopolitical rival for parts of a fake boom. Scarcity this brutal is the market’s bluntest proof that AI has crossed from story to business. The receipts keep piling up: MercadoLibre now runs 90% of its customer service without a human while the business tripled. Airbnb ships products up to 60% faster. Google’s and Amazon’s cloud backlogs each sit near half a trillion dollars. Akamai’s GPUs? Sold out to the last card.

Savor the irony: export controls were built to starve Chinese chipmakers; now America’s crown jewel wants to feed one. Price signals eat policy doctrine for breakfast, and the tech cold war just met its deadliest opponent: a purchasing department.

Below, as always, all you need to know and not a word more:

The Emptiest Piggy Bank Since 1983

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell another 6.1 million barrels to 298.7 million, the lowest since 1983 and already inside the 250–300 million zone the industry treats as its operational floor. Washington’s cushion against Hormuz is nearly spent. Unconfirmed reports say Tehran has concluded it can simply wait out this administration until January 2029. Patience, it turns out, is also a weapon.

Bessent’s Invisible Hand

Treasury Secretary Bessent spent the week signaling he wants long yields contained: coordinated yen operations, public support for Warsh, hints at trimming long-dated supply. Monday answered him, yields climbed right alongside oil, with the 30-year back near 5.25%. This week brings $125 billion of 3-, 10-, and 30-year auctions. Jawboning meets supply; historically, supply wins.

Gold Ignores the Rulebook

Gold printed fresh cycle highs above $4,350 on Monday despite a firmer dollar and rising yields, the exact conditions that usually sink it. Central-bank buying rebounded, Chinese speculators re-engaged, ETFs added 24 tons since late July, and trend-followers remain short, leaving fuel for further squeezes. One caution: BTIG flags heavy technical resistance in the $4,400–4,500 zone.

Sell Signals Are Stacking Up

BofA’s Bull & Bear indicator hit 9.7, its highest since the 2021 meme mania and firmly in sell territory. BTIG adds a technical rhyme: the S&P’s breakout mirrors late 2021, when the index sprinted to highs while momentum stocks sat in a 25% drawdown; that one faltered. Equal-weight has rallied through unwind and rebound alike, raising air-pocket risk.

The $1.4 Trillion Safety Net

The bull counterweight: US buyback authorizations run at a record $989 billion year-to-date, and Goldman expects $1.4 trillion of gross repurchases to swallow roughly $700 billion of equity issuance plus any lockup supply. August ranks among the heaviest buyback months, with 93% of S&P companies out of blackout. Corporate demand still outweighs corporate supply; for now.

THE WEEK: Inflation Data Meets a Wall of Bonds

July CPI arrives Wednesday, with forecasters watching for payback from June’s odd price swings in core goods and services. Thursday’s PPI counts double for the Fed’s preferred gauge; healthcare, airfares, and portfolio management feed straight into core PCE. Friday delivers retail sales and Michigan sentiment. Between them: $125 billion of 3-, 10-, and 30-year auctions, RBA and Norges Bank decisions, plus earnings from Cisco, Applied Materials, Tencent, and BYD.

Tactics for this Tape
Stay invested, stay hedged, stay unimpressed. Record-flat skew means call spreads and downside protection both trade cheap; own convexity while the market hands it out. Respect the mechanical levels: dealer short calls above 7,900, sell triggers clustered roughly 4% below. And keep dry powder for August 26, when Nvidia earnings collide with Jackson Hole week.
Don’t guess. Reach out. Let’s build a capital-efficient yet risk-managed strategy from the option chain up.

Get Rich Overnight with Options? Yeah Right...

TUESDAY TARGET: Devon Energy (DVN)

Our newest segment Daily Doze, still in beta, is already spitting out trades on an hourly basis: quant at its best. The options premium board wants us to have a deeper look at DVN, so here we are:

Everyone in energy is paying for action. War premium in case Hormuz stays shut, crash protection in case a deal does to crude what June’s ceasefire did; nobody wants to own the boring middle. Yet the middle is exactly what Washington and Tehran keep delivering: Trump calls it semi-negotiating, Iran hints it can outwait him until 2029, and Goldman pegs fair value at $80–90 Brent until something breaks.

Meanwhile, DVN has spent the summer chopping sideways while its options still price a headline that never arrives. So we sell both stories at once, a defined-risk range trade that collects rent from everyone else’s fear. War or peace ends the trade; purgatory pays it.

This is not an official trade entry, just food for thought. Official trade entries are posted in the Trade Alerts section. Over there, we relentlessly innovate and deliver novel setups.

☕ NEW: The Daily Doze

A live read on the market, refreshed through the trading day. Eight boards.

⓵ THE AUTOBAHN: Growth at Full Speed (free)
⓶ BOILER ROOM: Premium Worth Selling
⓷ TIME MACHINE: Sell Front, Own Back
⓸ CHEAP GAMMA: Movement on Sale
⓹ EARNINGS GRENADE: Fear vs Reality
⓺ GAMMA MAP: Walls, Pins, Trapdoors
⓻ ULTIMATE BEAR: Weak Names, Ready to Short
⓼ VALUE LIST: Historically Cheap, Still Growing

Every Tuesday Target trade walks straight off one of these boards; the Daily Doze pays for itself before your first sip.

Refill your cup → Daily Doze

🧠 Elite Trader Plan

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Less time = more often.

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Elite Trader: $55 | 👉 Book Elite Trader Call

🚨 Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance ≠ future results.

If you are only here for the money, look elsewhere. Success requires a dedication to the craft.

First Solar (FSLR): Nobody's Flying the Plane

Juri von Randow — Tue, 04 Aug 2026 14:25:49 GMT

🎯 TUESDAY TARGET: First Solar (FSLR) | 👇 Reveal the Play

Something strange happened last week: everyone in charge handed their job to someone else.

Start with the Fed. Kevin Warsh stared at the highest long-term yields since 2007 and declared victory by proxy, if the bond market prices in tightening, why bother hiking? Inflation-fighting, outsourced to bond investors whose entire profession is distrusting him. A central banker paying his enemies to do his homework.

Then Japan. The BOJ refuses to raise rates because higher yields would torch a bond market it already half owns. So the Ministry of Finance, now with Washington’s blessing and a record ~$88 billion in two days, bought the yen instead. Bessent’s handwritten to-do list (Buy Japanese Yen $5-10 bil) even made it into a Reuters photo. Monetary policy by sticky note. The real motive? Keeping Tokyo from dumping Treasuries to fund its own defense. The carry trade, borrow cheap yen, park it anywhere yielding more, is a multi-trillion tower, and nobody wants a live demolition test.

Finally, the week’s purest lesson in delegation: Situational Awareness, the $45 billion AI fund, discovered that leverage means your prime broker decides when you sell. Citadel took the book at a discount and reportedly cleared a billion-plus within a day.

Control has become a costume. The steering wheels are being quietly passed around.

Below, as always, all you need to know and not a word more:

Tokyo Buys Time by the Billion

Japan wants a stronger yen, yet the Bank of Japan refuses to raise rates, higher yields could crack a bond market it already half owns. So the finance ministry bought yen directly: roughly $53 billion Thursday, a single-day record, plus $33 billion Friday, with Washington joining for the first time since 2011. Identical campaigns have burned $255 billion since 2022. Goldman expects the next BOJ hike in January 2027.

The Carry Trade Checks Its Pulse

For years, traders have borrowed cheap yen and parked the proceeds in higher-yielding dollars — the carry trade, effectively a standing bet against the yen. That bet still pays over two percentage points. The intervention is now squeezing crowded yen bears; their forced exits could drag USDJPY toward Goldman’s 152–153. JPMorgan doubts any lasting break of 150, because once they’re flushed, the borrowing resumes.

Ceasefire by Social Post

Crude tumbled as much as seven percent after Washington shelved planned strikes and floated a Hormuz reopening by Tuesday. Tehran promptly denied direct talks, launched drones at tankers, and reportedly clipped a US base in Kuwait. Meanwhile the futures curve stays steeply backwardated, the market’s way of saying physical barrels remain scarce whatever the headlines celebrate. We’ve watched this exact episode before; reruns usually end with fresh explosions.

Pay Up for Proof

The verdict on AI capex arrived with brutal clarity. Microsoft added over half a trillion dollars in one session after Azure accelerated to 43% growth; Amazon jumped 15% despite lifting capex to $220 billion, because AWS margins expanded alongside a $25 billion AI run-rate. Meta, whose margins shrank from 43% to 31%, got spanked. Spending earns applause only once it visibly earns money.

The Volatility Split Screen

Study the divergences: yen volatility exploded while the VIX naps near 16, a pairing with no historical precedent. Treasury options carry put skew in the 98th percentile, bracing for higher yields, while QQQ downside protection trades near multi-year lows. Half the S&P’s sectors now move inversely to the index itself, something never recorded before. Index calm, single-stock chaos. That’s a dispersion trader’s paradise, and everyone else’s trap.

THE WEEK: Jobs Take the Wheel

Labor data dominates: JOLTS openings today, ADP Wednesday, then Friday’s July payrolls, where consensus expects 85k jobs and 4.2% unemployment, with risks of a tick higher. Wednesday’s ISM services and Thursday’s productivity fill the gaps, while Fed speakers Cook, Schmid, Musalem and Barkin audition their September votes. Earnings roll on with AMD, Caterpillar, Eli Lilly, Disney and SpaceX’s debut report. Warsh watches; the data decides.

Tactics for this Tape
Treat this bounce as a repositioning window rather than a green light. Upgrade quality, trim anything whose only thesis was price momentum, and keep cash ready for a retest. With half the index showing flat or inverted call skew, upside via call spreads beats chasing stock. Respect August seasonality, watch the 30-year, and let volatility sellers fund your patience. Survive first, compound second.
Don’t guess. Reach out. Let’s build a capital-efficient yet risk-managed strategy from the option chain up.

Get Rich Overnight with Options? Yeah Right...

TUESDAY TARGET: First Solar (FSLR)

High-risk single put calendar. Adjust the strike if you feel a different directional push. This one comes from testing our Daily Doze lists. They are far from ready, but already good for inspiration. Non-stop work on improvements, hence the late Tuesday Target and no podcast or video show this week.

First Solar just round-tripped from 320 to 197 and back to 233, and the options market still prices panic. That is our harvest. We sell the front-month put and buy the same strike two months out, paying a debit. The trade wins if FSLR digests its move between the breakevens through August, collecting roughly $30 a day in theta while front-month vol deflates. The back leg keeps us positioned through the next rate and policy window. Risk stays capped at the debit. Close or roll around front expiry.

One caveat before entry: the fat August premium is no leftover from earnings, which passed on July 30. It reflects Washington. The pending Section 232 polysilicon tariff ruling could drop any day in August and decides the fate of First Solar’s idle Malaysia and Vietnam capacity. A hard ruling likely gaps the stock upward, past our upper breakeven. Size accordingly, or shift the strike higher.

This is not an official trade entry, just food for thought. Official trade entries are posted in the Trade Alerts section. Over there, we relentlessly innovate and deliver novel setups.

☕ NEW: The Daily Doze

A live read on the options market, refreshed through the trading day. Six boards and a shortlist:

⓵ Setup Radar decoding momentum (free)
⓶ Boiler Room hunting premium worth selling
⓷ Front-Loaded Scare flagging front-month fear
⓸ Overpriced Move auditing inflated expectations
⓹ Earnings Grenade defusing pre-print panic
⓺ Gamma Map charting where dealers pin and push
🏆 The Shortlist naming tonight's survivors

Every Tuesday Target trade walks straight off one of these boards; the Daily Doze pays for itself before your first sip.

Refill your cup → Daily Doze

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🚨 Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance ≠ future results.

If you are only here for the money, look elsewhere. Success requires a dedication to the craft.

S&P 500 (SPY): Empty Racks, Full Balloons

Juri von Randow — Tue, 28 Jul 2026 10:37:34 GMT

🎯 TUESDAY TARGET: S&P 500 (SPY) | 👇 Reveal the Play

Three stories this week, one lesson: every war runs on ammunition, and the quartermasters just spoke.

Start in the Gulf. After thirteen nights of strikes, Washington suddenly rediscovered diplomacy, conveniently, right as leaks revealed the Pentagon’s stock of missile interceptors running thin and the long end of the bond market creaking. Oil dropped 8%, stocks exhaled, pundits celebrated statesmanship. I see a reload pause. Presidents preach peace when the racks run low and portfolios bleed.

Wall Street is fighting its own war, the AI buildout, and its ammunition is borrowed money. Nearly half a trillion dollars of fresh AI debt this year, and the lenders are twitching: the cost of insuring hyperscaler bonds just hit record highs. When Nvidia dangles a $250 billion backstop so its star customer can keep buying Nvidia chips, the financing has become a balloon inflating itself.

Enter the pin. Beijing floated CXMT, its homegrown memory champion, into a 470% debut and a $500 billion valuation minted in one afternoon, while rolling out domestic chipmaking machines that gnaw at ASML’s monopoly. Washington’s export bans turned into Beijing’s training program.

So count the magazines: interceptor racks, credit spreads, IPO war chests. Whoever reloads cheapest keeps shooting.

Below, as always, all you need to know and not a word more:

A Genuine Coin Toss at the Fed

Wednesday brings the rarest thing in modern central banking: a decision nobody can front-run. Futures assign roughly a one-in-three chance of a hike; if that holds, whatever the Fed delivers ranks among the biggest meeting-day surprises in decades. Under Warsh, the old blackout-period press leaks have vanished. Our base case: a hawkish hold, at least one dissent, and a press conference built to keep everyone guessing.

Accounting’s Kindest Year

The five biggest AI spenders will pour roughly $725 billion into capital projects this year, yet only about $211 billion lands on 2026 income statements as depreciation. The rest sits parked on balance sheets, flattering profits while cash drains. Morgan Stanley now models $1.27 trillion of capex for 2027. If chips age faster than the books assume, the deferred bill arrives early, and heavy.

Oil: Paper Panic, Physical Patience

Crude’s 8% Monday plunge celebrated the strike pause, yet the physical market never joined the party. Dated Brent still commands over $90 in backwardation, refined products barely budged, and just eight commodity vessels crossed Hormuz on Sunday. Saudi barrels now detour a month around Africa while tankers at Yanbu sail dark. Futures traders relaxed; shipowners and insurers plainly haven’t.

Expensive and Cheap, Simultaneously

Global equity value now equals 137% of world GDP, flirting with records. Yet the Nasdaq trades at 21.8 times forward earnings, a 10% discount to its own decade average, while the S&P’s price-to-earnings-growth ratio sits at a thirty-year low. Both camps hold real evidence. The entire debate compresses into one question: do you believe the earnings, given the depreciation math above?

One Hundred Days to the Ballot

The midterm countdown reads roughly 100 days, and history says the S&P grinds sideways from August through Election Day, then improves. Affordability now drives policy: Washington reopens Mexican cattle imports August 24 to tame beef prices, a margin lifeline for battered meatpackers Tyson and JBS. Expect healthcare, crypto rules, and residential solar to trade as political footballs into November. Position for chop, harvest the relief.

THE WEEK: Five Days, No Cover

The gauntlet opens today with a $44 billion 7-year Treasury sale. Wednesday pairs the Fed decision with Microsoft and Meta after the bell. Thursday stacks the first Q2 GDP print, core PCE inflation, and the Bank of England before Apple and Amazon report. Friday finishes with the Bank of Japan, eurozone CPI, and China’s PMIs. Thin summer liquidity amplifies every landing.

Tactics for this Tape
Simplify your portfolio and concentrate risk exclusively where you hold absolute conviction. Discard crowded, high-beta momentum names suffering severe technical breakdowns. Smart capital is quietly rotating into defensive, low-volatility structures and accumulating gold as a structural fiscal hedge. Maintain elevated cash reserves to deploy aggressively when the inevitable mechanical liquidation creates genuine, risk-adjusted value for disciplined allocators.
Don’t guess. Reach out. Let’s build a capital-efficient yet risk-managed strategy from the option chain up.

Get Rich Overnight with Options? Yeah Right...

TUESDAY TARGET: S&P 500 (SPY)

Record-low stock correlation has sedated the index: single names thrash while the S&P naps inside its summer cage, leaving index volatility artificially cheap. We rent the nap and own the wake-up.

The structure sells September’s 725 put and 745 call and buys the same strikes in October, harvesting daily decay while staying long volatility. History says midterm years turn choppy from August onward; the October legs live inside that pre-election build. Breakevens span the entire summer range.

This is not an official trade entry, just food for thought. Official trade entries are posted in the Trade Alerts section. Over there, we relentlessly innovate and deliver novel setups.

☕ NEW: The Daily Doze

A live read on the options market, refreshed through the trading day. Six boards and a shortlist:

Every Tuesday Target trade walks straight off one of these boards; the Daily Doze pays for itself before your first sip.

Refill your cup → Daily Doze

🧠 Elite Trader Plan

📅 60-Minute Mentorship Call

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📌 Advanced Options
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⏳ 30-Minute Session

Less time = more often.

📚 In-Depth Learning
🧠 Strategy Breakdowns
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🚨 Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance ≠ future results.

If you are only here for the money, look elsewhere. Success requires a dedication to the craft.

Brazil (EWZ): Musk, Missiles, and the Pentagon Put

Juri von Randow — Tue, 21 Jul 2026 11:38:56 GMT

🎯 TUESDAY TARGET: Brazil (EWZ) | 👇 Reveal the Play

Every bull market runs on invisible insurance. This one carries three policies, and two just lapsed.

Policy one: the Musk put. The belief that anything he touches only goes up. SpaceX, the largest IPO in history, now trades below its issue price after insiders unloaded on retail, with an August unlock set to triple the float. Faith, meet gravity.

Policy two: the scarcity put. The belief that compute stays rare forever, so the trillion-dollar data-center spree can’t miss. Then Kimi K3 dropped: a Chinese model brushing the frontier on a fraction of the hardware, selling intelligence at dollar-store prices. The country that flooded the world with plastic toys has moved on to cognition, and the capex cathedral suddenly needs an appraisal.

Policy three: the Pentagon put. The only one still trading. Nine straight nights of strikes on Iran, Hormuz traffic down to a trickle, a presidential choice between a ten-day truce and full-scale war due any day, and equities yawn, because everyone assumes the White House folds before oil breaks the S&P. Maybe. But when the market’s last backstop is one man’s pain threshold, you have quietly become the underwriter, and nobody pays you premium.

Below, as always, all you need to know and not a word more:

Tariffs, Second Front

While Hormuz hogs the headlines, Washington slapped an additional 50% tariff on selected Canadian goods, USMCA (NAFTA) products included, effective August 19, alongside aluminium tariff discounts for onshoring pledges. Ottawa talks retaliation and treaty modernization. Bonus round: reports suggest the administration may restrict Chinese AI models while Beijing weighs export controls of its own.

Great Numbers, Nothing Left to Buy

US banks just posted record 17% corporate loan growth, a 19% return on tangible equity, and squeaky-clean credit, while the Philly Fed outlook hit a five-year high. Morgan Stanley even argues this cycle rhymes with 1997 and 2005, with room left to run. Yet TSM and ASML both delivered stellar beats and promptly sold off. When perfection gets faded, the debate has moved from earnings to multiples.

The Refinery Tells the Truth

Crude chops around the low $80s, yet crack spreads sit at record highs, heating oil and gasoil are breaking out, and European natural gas presses back toward its wartime peaks. Treasuries have started tracking refined products, the stuff that actually feeds inflation. Europe faces a narrow window to refill storage before winter, with Russia holding the valve. Goldman sees Brent above $120 if Hormuz stays shut into Q4.

Britain Tries Something Old

Andy Burnham took Downing Street and surprised everyone by handing the Treasury to John Healey. The program: subsidized energy bills, reindustrialization through public procurement, more council housing; a self-declared new economic model. Gilt yields jumped on arrival. The backdrop makes it spicier: roughly $70–80 billion of take-privates already hollowed out the FTSE 250. Fresh fiscal ambition meets a shrinking equity base.

THE WEEK: Macro Whispers, Micro Shouts

With the Fed silent ahead of July 29 and PCE due next week, the calendar leans European: UK jobs Tuesday, UK inflation Wednesday, a hawkish-tilted ECB Thursday, Japanese CPI and global flash PMIs Friday. Sprinkle in ZEW, weekly ADP, and a $13 billion 20-year auction Wednesday. The real fireworks come from earnings, Alphabet and Tesla Wednesday, both priced for roughly 6% swings, Intel near 13%.

Tactics for this Tape
Trade smaller, hedge smarter. With index volatility artificially cheap, owning optionality beats selling it; protective puts and call-funded collars cost less than they should. Skip the leveraged ETF casino, let earnings prove the AI story before re-grossing, and keep dry powder for the moment correlation snaps. In a gamma-free market, patience pays better than heroics.
Don’t guess. Reach out. Let’s build a capital-efficient yet risk-managed strategy from the option chain up.

Get Rich Overnight with Options? Yeah Right...

TUESDAY TARGET: Brazil (EWZ)

Yes, Brazil again! I don’t pick favorites, the Daily Doze heat map does. Our new quant monster list flags the ticker, the strategy, the whole setup. I just sanity-check the chart.

And the chart plays along: EWZ bled 15% off the April highs, spent six weeks building a floor near 34, and now sits wedged in a tangle of moving averages around 35.50. Tired sellers below, trapped bagholders above; nobody’s winning that fight soon. So we sell the standoff: 31-day iron condor, roughly $1.50 in the pocket, break-evens parked outside the entire summer range. Theta collects rent while Brazil argues with itself.

But hear me: quant backing improves the odds, never removes the risk. The moment those break-evens stop working for you, drop it. No ego, no averaging down, next trade.

Lost? Message me and I’ll walk you through it; no rocket science, the Daily Doze already did the thinking.

This is not an official trade entry, just food for thought. Official trade entries are posted in the Trade Alerts section. Over there, we relentlessly innovate and deliver novel setups.

☕ NEW: The Daily Doze

A live read on the options market, refreshed through the trading day. Six boards and a shortlist:

Every Tuesday Target trade walks straight off one of these boards; the Daily Doze pays for itself before your first sip.

Refill your cup → Daily Doze

🧠 Elite Trader Plan

📅 60-Minute Mentorship Call

More time = more value.

📌 Advanced Options
📌 Risk Management
📌 Capital Efficiency

Rate: $145 | 👉 Book 60-Minute Call

Elite Trader: $110 | 👉 Book Elite Trader Call

⏳ 30-Minute Session

Less time = more often.

📚 In-Depth Learning
🧠 Strategy Breakdowns
🔍 Trade Reviews

Rate: $75 | 👉 Book 30-Minute Call

Elite Trader: $55 | 👉 Book Elite Trader Call

🚨 Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance ≠ future results.

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Korea (EWY): The Last Toll Collector

Juri von Randow — Tue, 14 Jul 2026 12:22:32 GMT

🎯 TUESDAY TARGET: Korea (EWY) | 👇 Reveal the Play

Two rival gangs are shaking down the same street. Tehran hawked safe passage through Hormuz for a token 1%. Washington spent spring branding any Iranian fee an outrage, then rolled up with the bigger racket: blockade back on, escorts at 20% of cargo value, plus a street name: Guardian Angel of the Strait. Nice tanker you’ve got there; shame if something happened to it. Fifty years of free protection, then the world’s policeman slides an invoice across the table.

Both mobs guard a street the traffic is deserting. The UAE quit OPEC and pumped a record 4.1 million barrels a day, much of it loading beyond the chokepoint. Dubai is pouring concrete on a port built to dodge Hormuz entirely; seven pipelines are under construction; Goldman figures half the strait’s oil finds another route by 2028. Every missile fired over that waterway finances the detour around it.

Equity land runs the same racket. Cap-weighting turned the emerging-markets index into an 83% Asian-AI toll road, marching every diversified dollar through a Korean memory chokepoint. Friday the bypass opened, SK Hynix listed straight into New York, seven times oversubscribed. By Monday: Hynix’s worst Seoul session ever, Kospi’s third-biggest drop since Lehman, partly traffic switching to the new road. The booth stands; the customers walk. Rent peaks before the road around it opens.

Below, as always, all you need to know and not a word more:

BofA’s Reversal Trade

BofA’s strategist names the biggest possible second-half surprise: an AI capex cut, forced when bond buyers stop funding cash-flow-negative hyperscalers. His trade for that world reverses this year’s winner, long software and Mag7, short semiconductors, since spenders keep their cash while suppliers lose their orders. Watch Meta’s late-July report; any hint of spending discipline flips the entire complex.

Apple, the Crowded Bunker

While AI names bleed, Apple printed fresh records and sits within 5% of overtaking Nvidia as the world’s largest company. July’s 13-point outperformance versus the Nasdaq 100 would mark its best month in fifteen years, at a 65% premium to the S&P: also a fifteen-year extreme. Every other Mag7 name trades in double-digit drawdown. When defense itself gets this crowded, safety starts carrying beta.

Washington’s $100 Ceiling

The real debate shifted from whether the strait is open to whose permission a tanker needs. With midterms in November, the White House has every incentive to prevent sustained $100 oil, which argues for weekend escalations followed by weekday de-escalation. Base case: Brent stuck in a $75–85 band. Watch refined products instead; tight diesel and gasoline feed inflation, and therefore rates, harder than spot crude.

Warsh, Record Shorts, and a 2.40% Tripwire

The new chair testifies today and tomorrow into a market that swung from pricing 50 basis points of cuts to roughly 40 of hikes, with hedge funds holding near-record shorts in SOFR futures, a bet that now needs an actual hike to keep paying. Meanwhile ten-year real yields hit 2.34%, the highest since April 2025; BTIG marks 2.40% as where equities start hurting. A Fed on hold squeezes everything.

THE WEEK: Inflation, Warsh, Banks and Chips

This week concentrates several market-moving tests into a few sessions. CPI and PPI will show whether higher energy costs are already leaking into inflation, while Kevin Warsh’s testimony will shape expectations for the Fed. Bank earnings offer an early read on credit quality, and results from ASML, TSMC and Netflix will test both the AI spending cycle and consumer resilience.

Tactics for this Tape
Respect the uptrend, distrust its breadth. Keep core longs on tighter stops, lean into the rotation, energy, financials, heavy-asset compounders, and own index protection while it’s priced for a windless afternoon. Then let today’s CPI, the bank prints, and Friday’s expiration come to you. This tape pays patience and punishes heroes.
Don’t guess. Reach out. Let’s build a capital-efficient yet risk-managed strategy from the option chain up.

Get Rich Overnight with Options? Yeah Right...

TUESDAY TARGET: Korea (EWY)

This week we publish EWY short volatility. Korea gets played while it’s hot, fingers on the pulse until they burn. Monday’s near-9% Kospi flush, the third-worst since Lehman, pumped EWY option premium once again to crash prices, and our ⓶ BOILER ROOM screen in the new Daily Doze calculates far less expected movement than the market now charges.

A present from the Korean gods - and our superior options models; go check it out.

So we open our own booth: the Aug-21 (38-day) 160/180 iron condor, wings at 120/220, collects $20.42. Korea can drop another 17% or rip 19% and we still keep the toll. Panic pays the patient.

This is not an official trade entry, just food for thought. Official trade entries are posted in the Trade Alerts section. Over there, we relentlessly innovate and deliver novel setups.

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Every Tuesday Target trade walks straight off one of those boards, the Doze paying for itself before your first sip.

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20+ Year Treasuries (TLT): Crowded Lifeboats

Juri von Randow — Tue, 07 Jul 2026 11:54:41 GMT

🎯 TUESDAY TARGET: 20+ Year Treasuries (TLT) | 👇 Reveal the Play

For a decade, Wall Street clapped like a trained seal every time a tech giant shredded its own shares. Buybacks built nothing and hired nobody, yet since 2000 they’ve supplied essentially all net demand for US equities. Now Microsoft, Meta & the other villains pour real money into real capacity, and the market treats them like teenagers who maxed out dad’s credit card. Reward the shredders, flog the builders. Charming incentive system.

Right on cue, the rescue squad arrives: BofA, Morgan Stanley, Goldman, JPMorgan, HSBC. All pitching the beaten-down spenders as the gutsy contrarian play, all in the same breath. A contrarian idea endorsed by every sales desk on the street is consensus with better marketing. And crowded lifeboats sink fastest.

Bond traders run the same rear-view logic: pricing Fed hikes off an inflation print pumped up by wartime oil, while wage growth, the signal that has led every inflation turn since 1985, topped out four years ago and real wages just dipped below zero. Disinflation is loading in the background while the anxious prairie dog insures against last month’s shock.

Below, as always, all you need to know and not a word more:

Hedge Funds Left Before the Fireworks

Goldman’s prime brokerage shows funds net sold US equities three straight weeks and dumped tech for a fourth, the most on record recently, while retail traded 65% above last year’s pace and long-only inflows hit an all-time monthly high of $180 billion. Cash allocations at private clients sit at generational lows. The smart money handed its inventory to the enthusiastic money.

The Broadening Gets Real?

Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson’s rotation call could have legs: out of chip stocks, into hyperscalers, consumer discretionary goods, transports, and biotech. The logic is straightforward; chips depend on hyperscaler checkbooks, and those checkbooks are being reviewed. Biotech historically annualizes near 20% returns when rates are elevated and falling.

Warsh Buries the Dot Plot

The new Fed chair is dismantling forward guidance itself. Waller calls it useful only at times; the June minutes will reveal how deep the philosophy shift runs. Markets built entire strategies around telegraphed policy paths. An adaptive Fed that moves fast without warning changes option pricing around every FOMC date; event risk premiums deserve to be structurally higher now.

Japan’s Bond Market Forces the Issue

Twenty-year JGB yields just printed a record 3.816%, they were zero in 2019. Japanese bankruptcies blamed on the weak yen hit an all-time high, concentrated among importers with no pricing power. The BOJ faces an ugly choice: keep tolerating currency collapse or tighten into a fragile economy.

Saudi Blinks First

Saudi Aramco slashed its Asia selling price by $11 per barrel, the largest cut in at least 26 years, as OPEC+ adds 188,000 daily barrels from August. Hormuz traffic runs near 30% of pre-war levels, yet crude sits under $70 with Brent in contango. Supply competition is overwhelming geopolitical risk premium. Cheap crude, though, hasn’t reached the pump: product markets stay tight.

THE WEEK: Minutes, Memory, Missiles

Wednesday’s FOMC minutes headline the calendar; the first glimpse inside Kevin Warsh’s inaugural meeting as Chair and the decision to scrap forward guidance. Fed speakers Williams and Logan follow Thursday, alongside China inflation data.

Taiwan Semiconductor posts June revenue Friday, and SK Hynix launches its $28 billion Nasdaq ADR listing. At the NATO summit in Turkey, Russia-Ukraine escalation tops the agenda after fresh strikes on refineries and tankers.

Tactics for this Tape
Watch the rotation, the bounce could fade into consolidation. Momentum remains crowded at the 92nd percentile despite the unwind, so only swing trade semis until volatility compresses.
Check out the broadening: equal-weight, discretionary goods, biotech, beaten-down software (if not too late). And observe quiet commodities like silver. A bottom may take time, but the AI buildout still runs on physical inputs.
Don’t guess. Reach out. Let’s build a capital-efficient yet risk-managed strategy from the option chain up.

Get Rich Overnight with Options? Yeah Right...

TUESDAY TARGET: 20+ Year Treasuries (TLT)

The prairie dog play:

The market prices Fed hikes off Warsh’s inaugural tough talk and an inflation print inflated by wartime oil; a lagging, distorted signal. Wage growth, the indicator that has led every inflation turn since 1985, peaked four years ago; real wages just went negative; payrolls printed 57k against 114k expected.

Institutional flow agrees: a large buyer just scooped 10-year Treasury calls expiring right after the July 14 inflation report. If disinflation forces hike pricing out, long-end yields fall and TLT grinds through 88. Defined risk, three months of runway.

This is not an official trade entry, just food for thought. Official trade entries are posted in the Trade Alerts section. Over there, we relentlessly innovate and deliver novel setups.

🧠 Elite Trader Plan

Who this is for? Beginners can follow the Starter path. Advanced investor students can skip ahead and dive deep fast.","cta":"Read full story","showBylines":true,"showDescription":true,"showImage":true,"size":"lg","isEditorNode":true,"title":"The Elite Trader Plan","publishedBylines":[{"id":82559706,"name":"Juri von Randow","bio":"65% ROI in 2024. Proven strategies. Let’s collaborate!","photo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af33682b-2e40-4e99-b0dd-4f7b22a7987f_438x438.jpeg","is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null}],"post_date":"2025-11-07T11:09:12.982Z","cover_image":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X58H!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fed4ef371-edb9-4277-aa55-7343d2d3c93a_1644x1104.png","cover_image_alt":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.macrodozer.com/p/the-elite-trader-plan","section_name":"Elite Trader","video_upload_id":null,"id":178259165,"type":"newsletter","reaction_count":0,"comment_count":0,"publication_id":863374,"publication_name":"MacroDoζer","publication_logo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pSj3!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F931fb787-8921-4cbd-826e-0e7b9ead28e3_216x216.png","belowTheFold":true,"youtube_url":null,"show_links":null,"feed_url":null}">

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BlackBerry (BB): The Control Hoax

Juri von Randow — Tue, 30 Jun 2026 09:59:39 GMT

🎯 TUESDAY TARGET: BlackBerry (BB) | 👇 Reveal the Play

Picture the worst case every analyst circled on the calendar: Hormuz, the planet’s busiest oil artery, choked shut for nearly four months. Oil opened the year at $70. It sits at $70 today. The doomsday premium melted, and everyone who panic-bought crude as insurance handed it back within hours. Strangling the world’s most important chokepoint moved… wait… eeehhmm, right: nothing!

Here’s the thread I can’t stop pulling. Almost nobody is steering what they claim to steer. Warsh struts around vowing to crush inflation, yet most price swings come from oil, food, and supply shocks; stuff no rate hike can reach. And Beijing cured its property collapse by quietly rerouting bank loans from apartments to EV and solar factories; the housing bust never healed, it just dropped out of the headlines, and now that the credit hose is being clamped, it’s creeping back.

Three players, one shared delusion: that motion and control are the same thing. They rarely are.

We catch the same fever. More screens, more alerts, more trades; a slot machine that pays out in dopamine while it bleeds the account dry.

The real edge this year? Accept what you can’t move. Trade less, wait better, keep compounding.

Below, as always, all you need to know and not a word more:

Apple’s Awkward Phone Call to China

The plot thickens. Apple is quietly lobbying Washington for permission to buy memory from CXMT, a Chinese maker the Pentagon has blacklisted. The irony is delicious: by blocking cheaper Chinese chips on security grounds, the US lets a Korean duopoly dictate American inflation, and by extension, Fed policy. Sometimes the patriotic choice and the affordable one collide head-on.

The Cartel’s Borrowed Time

Before you chase memory stocks to the moon, remember this is a brutally cyclical business. Record margins always invite a flood of new supply, and Samsung and SK Hynix are already signaling expansion plans. Goldman flags three threats to Micron: Chinese rivals, rapid capacity additions, and any sudden cooling in AI server demand. Peak tightness may already be in the rear-view.

Dealers Become Chasers

A wonky but vital signal: S&P gamma has plunged to one of its lowest readings ever. In plain English, the dealers who hedge options are now forced to buy after rallies and sell after drops, pouring gasoline on whatever direction the market picks. Add tightening liquidity and stretched positioning, and the kindling for a sharp move is stacking up quietly.

Don’t Buy the Hawk Costume

Every fresh Fed chair comes out swinging tough on inflation, Warsh is no exception. But the playbook rarely survives contact with reality; recall Powell’s 2018 hawkish lurch that cracked stocks within weeks. Markets now price roughly one-and-a-half hikes. If inflation has already peaked, as the falling oil curve suggests, that script could flip toward a September cut.

Where the Froth Rotates Next

Notice the rotation. The AI IPO window just froze, OpenAI reportedly pushing its listing to 2027, yet nuclear power SPACs are running red-hot, with over a dozen reactor developers now public, many without a single paying customer. Speculation doesn’t vanish when one casino closes; it strolls to the next table. Watch where the money actually moves.

THE WEEK: Jobs, Sintra, and a Short Friday

Global attention pivots to a highly compressed, holiday-shortened trading calendar culminating in Thursday’s accelerated U.S. payrolls report. Traders will intensely scrutinize Fed Chair Warsh’s appearance at the ECB’s Sintra forum for any policy clues. With crucial domestic labor data, ISM manufacturing prints, and Eurozone inflation readings hitting a liquidity-drained summer market ahead of America’s 250th birthday, expect outsized price reactions.

Tactics for this Tape
Stop chasing overextended hardware momentum and embrace the absolute alpha of silence. With index correlation collapsing and dealer gamma sitting in deep negative territory, this environment demands ruthless patience. Protect your downside using cheap options on broad indices while hunting for targeted mean-reversion setups in temporarily abandoned sectors like software. Preserve your mental capital, deliberately trade smaller sizes, and wait for the fat pitch before deploying fresh cash.
Don’t guess. Reach out. Let’s build a capital-efficient yet risk-managed strategy from the option chain up.

Get Rich Overnight with Options? Yeah Right...

TUESDAY TARGET: BlackBerry (BB)

We remain in observation mode. Selling rich premium into overbought conditions could offer a wide profitability window. Only for rock stars.

BB staged a parabolic melt-up to $12.48, keeping implied volatility elevated. One could exploit this euphoria by structuring a 52-day Iron Condor. Shorting the 12/13 inner strikes and buying 8/17 wings. This builds a forgiving profit tent with relatively wide breakevens. We need momentum to exhaust into sideways chop, letting time decay melt the pricey premium.

This is not an official trade entry, just food for thought. Official trade entries are posted in the Trade Alerts section. Over there, we relentlessly innovate and deliver novel setups.

🧠 Elite Trader Plan

Who this is for? Beginners can follow the Starter path. Advanced investor students can skip ahead and dive deep fast.","cta":"Read full story","showBylines":true,"showDescription":true,"showImage":true,"size":"lg","isEditorNode":true,"title":"The Elite Trader Plan","publishedBylines":[{"id":82559706,"name":"Juri von Randow","bio":"65% ROI in 2024. Proven strategies. Let’s collaborate!","photo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af33682b-2e40-4e99-b0dd-4f7b22a7987f_438x438.jpeg","is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null}],"post_date":"2025-11-07T11:09:12.982Z","cover_image":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X58H!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fed4ef371-edb9-4277-aa55-7343d2d3c93a_1644x1104.png","cover_image_alt":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.macrodozer.com/p/the-elite-trader-plan","section_name":"Elite Trader","video_upload_id":null,"id":178259165,"type":"newsletter","reaction_count":0,"comment_count":0,"publication_id":863374,"publication_name":"MacroDoζer","publication_logo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pSj3!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F931fb787-8921-4cbd-826e-0e7b9ead28e3_216x216.png","belowTheFold":true,"youtube_url":null,"show_links":null,"feed_url":null}">

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ServiceNow (NOW): One Bloodstream, Two Stories

Juri von Randow — Tue, 23 Jun 2026 16:45:21 GMT

Note: Audio and video will return soon. We are currently working 24/7 on a new segment on macrodozer.com called Daily Doze, which will be more powerful than anything you have seen so far. We are also in the middle of setting up the logistics for a free weekly call for Elite Traders. Things are moving fast, and I hope this will compensate for the 2-3 weeks with no video or audio on the Tuesday Target letter.

🎯 TUESDAY TARGET: ServiceNow (NOW) | 👇 Reveal the Play

Markets are wired for yes or no, open or shut, boom or bust. The messy middle, the trickle between extremes, drives them nuts; so they round it off to whichever clean story trades easier. Three of those roundings are live right now.

Oil reopened through Hormuz, and the trader cheerfully buried its war premium. But a leaking strait still drains the world’s oil tanks toward empty while everyone acts as if the taps ran wide. The shortage simply mails itself forward, landing later as inflation, precisely when a freshly hawkish Fed has sworn off rescues.

Then SpaceX shed $600 billion in a day, and the headline screamed bubble popped. Yet barely a sliver of the stock trades; the rest stays bolted down until autumn. Pricing that teaspoon as if it were the whole ocean is the real sleight of hand, especially while that inflated paper gets spent like cash to swallow real companies, conjuring the very fundamentals it pretends to mirror.

Beneath it all, the market flipped a switch: punish the giants writing the AI checks, reward the chipmakers cashing them. Tidy. Except they share one bloodstream. Starve the spender long enough, and the seller bleeds too.

Below, as always, all you need to know and not a word more:

The Bond Market Yawns While Tech Sweats

A strange split keeps widening. Bond-market fear, measured by the MOVE index, has melted back to pre-conflict calm even as yields climbed and the dollar ripped higher. Yet volatility in tech names is doing the reverse - exploding. The takeaway: uncertainty didn’t disappear, it relocated. It drifted out of the broad economy and into the AI build-out itself, where every memory chip now carries the market’s nerves.

When the Richest Borrow Anyway

Nvidia just sold $25 billion in bonds, its first raise since 2021, despite minting cash hand over fist. Why borrow when you’re swimming in profit? Because management clearly expects this spending cycle to run for years, not quarters. The US now supplies more than half the world’s fresh credit, most of it AI-flavored, while households’ savings cushion has thinned to a frail 2.6%.

Cheaper Rivals, Bigger Bills

Logic says cheap Chinese open-source models, the latest GLM release, Sakana’s clever router that simply coordinates other models, should gut the case for splurging on chips. The opposite is unfolding. If the frontier gap shrinks from a year to a few months, nobody dares ease off the gas. Competition swells the spending. Next year’s capex forecasts keep climbing, exactly when everyone expected them to peak.

What Actually Pops a Bubble

Manias rarely die from a steep valuation alone. They die when ballots, bond vigilantes, or a currency accident yank the rug out. AI now makes up 39% of the S&P, a concentration last seen before the 1880s railroad frenzy. So the trigger probably won’t be a P/E chart; it’ll be a November Senate result or a currency blowup in Tokyo or Seoul that nobody bothered to hedge.

From Lawsuits to License Fees

Getty Images leapt 141% on a single deal letting OpenAI display its pictures inside ChatGPT. The bigger signal: the AI labs are swapping courtroom brawls for licensing checks, suddenly reviving a graveyard of beaten-down content names. For investors, it reprices who actually gets paid across the AI stack, handing the data owners a real seat at the table alongside the model builders.

Fireworks for the Portfolio?

With the 250th July 4th two weeks out and approval ratings near lows, expect the President to chase record highs by almost any means, see the recent Intel cheerleading. He’s also feuding openly with Senate leadership over election and surveillance bills. The coming fortnight could be steered by social-media pronouncements, an engineered melt-up bumping straight into a freshly hawkish Fed.

THE WEEK: Core Inflation, Chips and Fed Voices

Two heavyweights anchor the calendar. Global flash PMIs drop today, then Thursday’s core PCE, Goldman pegs it near 0.31% monthly, nudging the yearly rate toward 3.4%, the hottest since late 2023.

Williams and Goolsbee speak Thursday, offering live clues on the hike debate. The real wildcard is Micron’s Wednesday earnings: up roughly 250% since March, the memory bellwether now moves the whole macro mood.

Tactics for this Tape
Institutional hedge funds are actively distributing risk directly into blind retail euphoria. Maintain strict discipline by trimming your most overextended momentum winners and holding a healthy cash buffer. Let the impatient crowd pay exorbitant volatility premiums today. We will patiently wait to buy their panic when the inevitable mechanical liquidations arrive. Use tactical option structures to strictly define downside risk and protect capital from sudden reversals.
Don’t guess. Reach out. Let’s build a capital-efficient yet risk-managed strategy from the option chain up.

Get Rich Overnight with Options? Yeah Right...

TUESDAY TARGET: ServiceNow (NOW)

Still trending down long-term, but we like the bottom-building process, and its relative valuation multiples have never been this cheap while revenue and earnings keep getting revised to the upside. Plus, if the market keeps falling, these guys might not have much room left to get any cheaper.

Good enough for government work…

This is not an official trade entry, just food for thought. Official trade entries are posted in the Trade Alerts section. Over there, we relentlessly innovate and deliver novel setups.

🧠 Elite Trader Plan

Who this is for? Beginners can follow the Starter path. Advanced investor students can skip ahead and dive deep fast.","cta":"Read full story","showBylines":true,"showDescription":true,"showImage":true,"size":"lg","isEditorNode":true,"title":"The Elite Trader Plan","publishedBylines":[{"id":82559706,"name":"Juri von Randow","bio":"65% ROI in 2024. Proven strategies. Let’s collaborate!","photo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af33682b-2e40-4e99-b0dd-4f7b22a7987f_438x438.jpeg","is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null}],"post_date":"2025-11-07T11:09:12.982Z","cover_image":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X58H!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fed4ef371-edb9-4277-aa55-7343d2d3c93a_1644x1104.png","cover_image_alt":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.macrodozer.com/p/the-elite-trader-plan","section_name":"Elite Trader","video_upload_id":null,"id":178259165,"type":"newsletter","reaction_count":0,"comment_count":0,"publication_id":863374,"publication_name":"MacroDoζer","publication_logo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pSj3!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F931fb787-8921-4cbd-826e-0e7b9ead28e3_216x216.png","belowTheFold":true,"youtube_url":null,"show_links":null,"feed_url":null}">

Elite Trader

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More time = more value.

📌 Advanced Options
📌 Risk Management
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Rate: $145 | 👉 Book 60-Minute Call

Elite Trader: $110 | 👉 Book Elite Trader Call

⏳ 30-Minute Session

Less time = more often.

📚 In-Depth Learning
🧠 Strategy Breakdowns
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Rate: $75 | 👉 Book 30-Minute Call

Elite Trader: $55 | 👉 Book Elite Trader Call

🚨 Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance ≠ future results.

If you are only here for the money, look elsewhere. Success requires a dedication to the craft.

Samsara (IOT): Calm Tape, Rabid Fox

Juri von Randow — Tue, 16 Jun 2026 11:56:33 GMT

🎯 TUESDAY TARGET: Samsara (IOT) | 👇 Reveal the Play

The VIX is taking a nap again, which is always adorable right before the furniture starts moving by itself. Under the surface, leverage is doing push-ups: total return swaps, leveraged ETFs, dealer hedging, zero-day gamblers, and tech vol priced like someone left a rabid fox loose in the options pit.

Look at the weird part. Semis are ripping like the only shovel shop in an AI gold rush. And cash-rich software like Adobe keeps compounding earnings near 40%, growing fatter on the very AI that’s supposedly digging its grave, while the algo shorts it against an apocalypse that never clocks in.

Even gold caught the disease. The old crisis blanket now trades with meme-stock mood swings: war headline down, peace headline up, miners acting like they found a Robinhood account and too much crystal. When the supposed safe haven starts behaving like a bored teenager with leverage, you gotta keep your eyes wide open.

So yes, markets look calm from 30,000 feet. Down here, the pipes are banging, the casino is humming, and every quiet chart has a trapdoor.

Below, as always, all you need to know and not a word more:

Cheap Gas Borrowed Against an Empty Tank

Here’s what the green screens skip: the Strait stays shut until Friday while mines get cleared, and only one brave LNG tanker has slipped through toward India. Most shipowners refuse to sail without proof of safety, and war-risk premiums remain stuck near decade highs. Meanwhile America’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve sits at its lowest level since 1983. The relief is genuine, and also paper-thin.

Chips Sprint, and Chasing Feels Late

Semiconductors ripped roughly 18% in five sessions, with Korean chip exports tracking near 90% growth in the month’s first ten days and memory names printing fresh records. Bulls lean on the late-1990s template, which hints at another 30% of upside ahead. Sprinting in after a move like that feels late, while betting against the hottest theme on earth feels genuinely reckless.

The Largest IPO Cashing Out the Mania

SpaceX rocketed to a $3 trillion valuation after hours, leapfrogging Microsoft, after retail piled in so hard the stock made up 73% of all single-stock buying. Options begin trading next session, and one good squeeze could chase it past Nvidia. Elon becomes the first trillionaire. Squeezing imagination into shares works beautifully, right up until the imagination needs real earnings to back it?

Cheaper Brains Cut in Two Directions

A telling experiment stitched together three cheaper models and beat the flagship offerings outright, landing within 1% of the very best at half the price. The lesson rattling AI investors: intelligence is sliding from scarce and expensive toward abundant and cheap. That feeds more usage and more compute demand, while quietly torching the pricing power that’s supposed to justify trillion-dollar valuations.

Bonds Now Pay You More to Do Nothing

A quiet milestone slipped past most investors: the S&P’s earnings yield, near 3.6%, now sits below the 10-year Treasury at 4.45%. For the first time this cycle, parking cash in a risk-free government bond earns you more than the entire stock index produces in actual profit. Every allocator suddenly has a paid, patient excuse to trim equities and simply wait.

THE WEEK: All Eyes on Wednesday

A packed calendar, but everything funnels into Warsh’s Fed debut Wednesday. Before that, watch May retail sales for signs the consumer is cracking, plus housing starts and industrial production for the growth picture. Overseas, the Bank of Japan is nearly certain to hike to 1.0%, while the RBA holds and the BoE stays put. Juneteenth shutters US markets Friday, thinning liquidity into a long weekend.

Tactics for this Tape
Do not chase every green candle. Volatility is cheap in the index, expensive in tech, and weird in single names. That favors defined-risk options, collars, slightly bearish calendars, and selective premium selling where the move is already emotional. Keep position sizes boring, entries patient, and exits planned before the headline hits.
Don’t guess. Reach out. Let’s build a capital-efficient yet risk-managed strategy from the option chain up.

Get Rich Overnight with Options? Yeah Right...

TUESDAY TARGET: Samsara (IOT)

IOT got cut in half on SaaSpocalypse AI-disruption fear, yet the business keeps beating: Q1 FY27 revenue topped estimates, ARR is nearing $2B at 30% growth, and management raised full-year guidance.

The stock sits in the mid-$30s while analysts target $45. With earnings already cleared until September, we’re playing a slow drift back toward fair value, not a gap.

The structure: a Sep 18 long call fly, buying the 35 and 45 calls and selling two 40s for a 0.76 debit. Risk $76 to make up to $424 if IOT finishes near 40, great risk return, capital efficiency at its best.

Not the most liquid underlying, so use tight limits at entry. On the way to maturity, it will trade more liquid.

This is not an official trade entry, just food for thought. Official trade entries are posted in the Trade Alerts section. Over there, we relentlessly innovate and deliver novel setups.

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