Picking the window

In the clip I am weighing a long call fly on ServiceNow and build it on the chain. It looks like NOW might want the next leg higher, so maybe eighty days is enough. A hundred and seven days might feel a little slower.

Two short calls pay for it

To finance the spread I sell two of the upper calls, and now it is more than financed. Then I buy the hedge. The hedge is basically the only cost in this scenario. We have the bid and ask spreads of four options, but with liquidity around two thousand you get filled okay.

Moving to 130/150

On the chart 135 at the money maybe feels too weak and 140 is probably too bullish. 130/150 is probably the better structure, so I stick with 150 as the upper strike for now, and the downside breakeven sits a little further out.

Enough room in December?

With time passing, the breakeven goes down to 126 and up to 178 for December. A move to the upside is a luxury problem because this is a bullish trade. The problem is the downside, 119 can easily happen, and I ask myself whether there is enough room. If it sits at 150 you can squeeze it.

Every Wednesday we run a session like this on a real portfolio. One free lesson a week lands here; the full calls and the archive are part of the Elite Trader Program.

🚨 Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance ≠ future results.

Reading the Red Day

In the clip my EEM condor prints minus 700 dollars while implied volatility falls, so there is no reason for that red. It is 10 percent of the maximum we can make, gone in one day. I had thought about getting out; the swing flips my mind, and I probably stay in.

Small Windows, Day 16

We put these on short, 35 to 45 days out, and in the call we are 23 days from maturity, so the windows are small: one bad day puts the P/L down there. The usual exit is day 18 to 21; these shorter ones I want to ride to day 16 while still avoiding a loss.

Risk 2, Return 1

We set them up defensive, risk two and return one, so the profit over the money at risk is smaller. With a one-to-one condor I would normally be fifty percent up. Slow is the price, and it is a little annoying.

Size and Steady Growth

If I put them on this defensive, I would move the size from five percent to six or seven. We are in no rush; as long as the portfolio climbs steadily, we are fine. Big wins bring big losses, and how much of that ride you want is a matter of personality.

Every Wednesday we run a session like this on a real portfolio. One free lesson a week lands here; the full calls and the archive are part of the Elite Trader Program.

🚨 Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance ≠ future results.

This clip picks up right after my published USO calendar showed 8% in a single day. I walk through the thesis behind the trade, why the breakevens move with implied volatility, and then compare calendar and iron condor structures on oil live on screen.

A 30-day October condor gets judged too hectic, and a November setup with a window from 130 to 180 takes its place, covered whether oil climbs on war headlines or rolls back over.

Every Wednesday we run a session like this on a real portfolio. One free lesson a week lands here; the full calls and the archive are part of the Elite Trader Program.

🚨 Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance ≠ future results.

A chain that lights up overnight

UnitedHealth implied volatility jumped overnight and the whole option chain lit up. Rich premium is exactly what a premium seller wants to see, and it is also the moment most mistakes are made. This clip from a live Elite Trader call shows what I did instead of clicking.

Price first, then ask why

I priced the iron condor at the new volatility to see what the market was paying for the risk, and only then went looking for the reason behind the spike. A move like this has a cause, a headline, a filing, a rumour, and the trade depends on whether that cause is done or still unfolding.

Trade it or wait

The rule is simple: an event that is already public and priced can be sold; a story that is still developing gets a day. The clip walks through the chain, the news check and the decision in real time, so you can see the order of the steps rather than only the result.

Every Wednesday we run a session like this on a real portfolio. One free lesson a week lands here; the full calls and the archive are part of the Elite Trader Program.

🚨 Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance ≠ future results.

Two condors, one earnings date

Two iron condors on the same stock, both placed before earnings, one expiring in 16 days and one in 44. Most traders pick the short one because it decays faster. In this clip from a live Elite Trader call I explain why the longer one is the better trade.

What the crush pays either way

Both positions earn the volatility crush once the numbers are out, since the crush hits the event, whatever the expiry. The 44-day condor collects a larger credit for the same width, so its break-evens sit further from the price and it takes a bigger move to hurt it.

Where the short expiry breaks

With 16 days left, gamma is high. A move through a short strike turns into a large loss quickly, and there is little time to repair anything. The 44-day condor moves more slowly against you, and after the event there are weeks left to roll a side or close for a smaller loss.

Time as the cheapest insurance

Paying a little theta for four extra weeks buys room to be wrong. The clip shows both positions side by side on a real position.

Every Wednesday we run a session like this on a real portfolio. One free lesson a week lands here; the full calls and the archive are part of the Elite Trader Program.

🚨 Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance ≠ future results.

The trade most people get backwards

Most traders enter earnings trades in the morning and pick a direction. I do neither, and this clip from a live Elite Trader call walks through the checklist I run instead.

Expected move against history

The first check compares what the options market prices for the move with what the stock actually did on its last earnings dates. When the priced move is larger than the typical realised move, selling premium has an edge. When history shows bigger jumps than the market expects, I stay away.

Volatility crush and the straddle

The second check estimates how far implied volatility drops once the numbers are out, because that drop is where a neutral trade earns most of its money. The at-the-money straddle gives a quick second opinion on the expected move, and if the two readings disagree, the checklist stops there.

Ten minutes before the close

The entry itself goes in late in the session, neutral in delta. By then the day's move is done, spreads are tight and the fills are fair. The clip shows the whole sequence on a live name, with the numbers as they came up in the call.

Every Wednesday we run a session like this on a real portfolio. One free lesson a week lands here; the full calls and the archive are part of the Elite Trader Program.

🚨 Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance ≠ future results.

Why the payoff looks wrong

Most traders want to win two and risk one. On an iron condor I do the reverse, and this clip from a live Elite Trader call explains why. The condor collects a credit, and the width of the wings sets what can be lost. When the credit is about half the width, the trade wins one and risks two, and most people stop reading there.

What the probabilities add

The part they skip is how often each outcome happens. A condor with that shape sits well outside the expected move, so the price finishes inside the wings far more often than outside. Many small wins against fewer, larger losses is a positive expectancy once the win rate is high enough, and the option prices tell you that rate before you enter.

Why the exit rule decides

The theoretical loss of two is almost never the realised loss. I close winners early, when most of the credit is earned, and I manage a threatened side long before expiry. The clip walks through the numbers on a real position so you can see how the shape that looks upside down is the one that compounds.

Every Wednesday we run a session like this on a real portfolio. One free lesson a week lands here; the full calls and the archive are part of the Elite Trader Program.

🚨 Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance ≠ future results.