Session Recap

A group Elite Trader call working through the current book (XOM and BABA), the state of the Daily Doze screener lists, and a detailed comparison of how to trade a fresh implied-volatility spike with an iron condor versus a calendar spread, using UNH, Nokia, Korea, EEM, gold and Brazil as live examples.

The streamlined recording and the complete breakdown are below, for Elite Trader members. 👇

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Master Trade Management. Become an Elite Trader.

Don’t fight for pennies, just get in and earn it daily.

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Washington wants cheaper long-term borrowing and a stronger yen. The Treasury doubled its long-bond buybacks to push yields down, a few billion against forty trillion of debt, then joined Tokyo to prop up the yen, the first joint move since 1998. Japan paid by selling nearly ninety billion dollars of Treasuries, which pushes yields back up. One hand pours a bucket into the pool, the other asks a friend to pull the plug.

Fed chair Warsh has the same problem. His boss demands 1% while the 30-year Treasury yields 5.3%, its highest since 2007, because bondholders fear inflation more than they fear the Fed. Here’s what I think: the hawk’s move and the dove’s move are the same move. Hike once, kill the fear, and the 30-year falls further than the overnight rate rises. Hold, and the long bond keeps pricing a central bank that takes orders.

Expensive money in Washington, expensive power in the counties. Elon Musk stopped arguing. Counties are freezing datacenter permits over power bills, so SpaceX plans a $100 billion launch site in Louisiana, beside Henry Hub where America prices the natural gas Starship burns, to put datacenters into an orbit that never leaves the sunlight: power around the clock, no grid, no county board. Position with the leavers: own power, fuel and launch capacity. Treasury, the Fed and the county boards will still be arguing with gravity and the bill in 2029.

Below, as always, the minimum you need to know to get a feel for what’s cooking:

Crude Is the Headline, Diesel Is the Bill

Brent trades above $98 after weekend attacks on tankers and Iran’s threat to declare an exclusion zone across the Gulf. Ship traffic through Hormuz is at its lowest since May. The sharper pain sits in refined products: US diesel at record prices, Shanghai crude above $100, and a strategic reserve near 287 million barrels, little cushion left.

Midterms: The Sweep Nobody Is Hedging

Prediction markets put a Democratic sweep of both chambers near 50%, a split Congress at 35% and a Republican hold at 10%, with presidential approval in the mid-thirties. A sweep points to higher taxes and tighter regulation, a weaker dollar and lower bond yields as growth cools.

A Smarter Model Changes the Demand Curve

OpenAI’s Astra claims a generational leap; SoftBank and Oracle rallied as proxies. Bulls say smarter models create new uses, so spending keeps climbing. The trap: Astra finishes tasks with fewer tokens, the units AI is billed by, and if prices fall faster than usage grows, spare computing capacity becomes the risk.

Food Inflation Arrives Uninvited

The UN food price index climbed to 133.3 in August, its highest since 2022, every category rising: sugar up 12% on the month, wheat 15% above a year ago. A broad agriculture index posted its largest monthly gain since 2011. Record diesel, pricier fertilizer, El Niño and shipping trouble in the Black Sea and Hormuz push the same way. Central banks can slow demand. Wheat grows on its own schedule.

Hard Assets Refuse to Blink

Gold holds above $4,400 and central banks keep buying dips. Copper hit a record in London on supply worries and tariff fears. Bitcoin slipped below $79,000 after touching $82,000. Brazil is the crowded corner: EWZ has rallied 15% in three weeks as runoff polls flipped toward Bolsonaro, the candidate markets read as fiscally tighter than Lula. Call open interest sits at records, so the next poll decides the direction.

China Refills Banks Nobody Borrows From

Beijing injects $56 billion into eight banks and insurers, the largest recapitalization in nearly two decades. The reason is weak demand: Chinese households and companies repaid more loans than they took out in July, a first on record, and credit growth sits at its weakest since 2008. Fresh capital keeps the banks safe. It cannot make anyone borrow. Speculators are buying call spreads on Chinese indexes anyway, betting Beijing forces a rebound.

THE WEEK: Two Inflation Prints Decide the Fed

Markets reopen today after Labor Day with OpenAI on stage at Goldman’s tech conference and a 3-year Treasury auction. Apple’s event lands Wednesday. Thursday stacks PPI, jobless claims, the ECB’s near-certain hike, and Oracle and Adobe earnings after the close. Friday brings CPI and Michigan sentiment. Fed officials stay silent in their pre-meeting blackout; the decision itself comes September 16, with the Bank of Japan and record options expiry two days later

Tactics for this Tape

Hedge while it is cheap: skew at the first percentile means index puts cost less than they have all year. Keep energy and power exposure as the inflation hedge. Avoid chasing first-half leaders; leadership flips weekly. Hold cash at 4%-plus and a shopping list for mid-October, when buybacks and earnings return. Size Brazil and China as options, never as core.

Don’t guess. Reach out. Let’s build a capital-efficient yet risk-managed strategy from the option chain up.

Get Rich Overnight with Options? Yeah Right...

TUESDAY TARGET: ExxonMobil (XOM)

Slightly bullish iron condor on ExxonMobil never hurt anybody.

Oil options are priced for a war, the chart shows a stock grinding higher along its 50-day. We take the difference. Sell the October 16 iron condor, 38 days out, with the short put resting on the rising 50-day and the short call above the August high.

Earnings land after expiry. The machine says sell energy premium. I say collect it while everyone else argues with gravity.

The inspiration is taken straight from one of the Daily Doze trade boards.

This is not an official trade entry, just food for thought. Official trade entries are posted in the Trade Alerts section. Over there, we relentlessly innovate and deliver novel setups.

All our recent trades and the reasoning behind them can be found in the Trade Alerts section. Think of it as a behind-the-scenes look into our process, so you can decide if it’s worth adopting (or adapting) in your own strategy.

☕ NEW: The Daily Doze

A live read on the market, refreshed through the trading day. Eight boards.

⓵ AUTOBAHN: Growth at Full Speed (free)
⓶ DEEP VALUE: Historically Cheap, Still Growing
⓷ ULTIMATE BEAR: Weak Names, Ready to Short
⓸ SLEEPER AGENT: Movement on Sale
⓹ BOILER ROOM: Premium Worth Selling
⓺ EARNINGS GRENADE: Fear vs Reality
⓻ TIME MACHINE: Sell Front, Own Back
⓼ GAMMA MAP: Walls, Pins, Trapdoors

Every Tuesday Target trade walks straight off one of these boards; the Daily Doze pays for itself before your first sip.

Refill your cup → Daily Doze

FIND TRADES

🧠 Elite Trader Plan

And if you need a calm, step-by-step options plan that grows accounts and tames big swings, check out the Elite Trader Plan. In 4–8 sessions, we will bring you fully up to speed, all included in the plan.

JOIN THE COURSE

📅 60-Minute Mentorship Call

More time = more value.

📌 Advanced Options

📌 Risk Management

📌 Capital Efficiency

• Rate: $135 | 👉 Book 60-Minute Call

• Elite Trader: $110 | 👉 Book Elite Trader Call

BOOK 60-MINUTE CALL

⏳ 30-Minute Session

Less time = more often.

📚 In-Depth Learning

🧠 Strategy Breakdowns

🔍 Trade Reviews

• Rate: $95 | 👉 Book 30-Minute Call

• Elite Trader: $55 | 👉 Book Elite Trader Call

BOOK 30-MINUTE CALL

Tuesday Target is written by Juri von Randow — founder of MacroDozer, professional investor, and trading mentor — delivering institutional-grade trade ideas, market insights, and strategy every week for serious1 investors.

🚨 Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance ≠ future results.

Every Wednesday we run a session like this on a real portfolio. One free lesson a week lands here; the full calls and the archive are part of the Elite Trader Plan.

See the Elite Trader Plan

Book a 60-Minute Call

🚨 Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance ≠ future results.

Master Trade Management. Become an Elite Trader.

Don’t fight for pennies, just get in and earn it daily.

Read more

Session Recap

We went through a full board of setups across the earnings-grenade space, the Tuesday Target and value lists, and several directional and volatility trades, with a running theme of choosing calmer, more time-forgiving structures over fast casino-style plays.

The streamlined recording and the complete breakdown are below, for Elite Trader members. 👇

Read more

In 1930, with machines blamed for mass unemployment, John Maynard Keynes coined the term technological unemployment and told everyone to relax: within a hundred years his grandchildren would be eight times richer and work fifteen hours a week. Scorecard today, four years before his deadline: living standards up roughly eightfold, the jobs came back, and we still grind forty hours. The pessimists were right about the pain, the optimist was right about the wealth, and the forty-hour week outlived them both.

Debt hysteria carries the same track record. Britain beat Napoleon in 1815 carrying debt above 200% of GDP, then ran the planet for a century and quietly retired the last of those war bonds in 2015. Andrew Jackson killed America’s central bank, paid the national debt down to zero in 1835 and got the Panic of 1837, the worst crash of the century, as a thank-you note. Last month the US crossed $40 trillion, gold and bitcoin ripped, and the doom clock keeps ticking.

Which brings us to the next machine, and this one targets the marketers. AI assistants now restock fridges, pick sneakers and haggle phone plans, and software has no impulses to work on. The “only two left” banner, the influencer with the discount code, the sponsored listing at the top of the page: fifty years of tricks built for a human brain, and the brain is leaving the store. The bot compares every shop at once, reads every review and remembers every late parcel. Price, quality and reliability win. Charm loses.

The machine has won every round for two centuries. Learn it, use it, own it.

Below, as always, the minimum you need to know, and not a word more:

Warsh Makes September Live

Kevin Warsh used Jackson Hole to end forward guidance, restate the 2% target as fixed, and call financial conditions anything except restrictive. Markets moved September hike odds from roughly 35% to 60%. Two prints now decide the meeting: Friday’s payrolls and the September 11 CPI. Warsh has criticized false precision in data, yet he just handed traders two exact benchmarks to judge him by.

Software Rises From the Dead

Salesforce jumped 22% on results and an Anthropic partnership, and the broad software ETF posted its best day in twenty years. The disruption narrative flipped to monetization: incumbents with proprietary data and distribution are repricing their installed base upward with AI features. Hedge funds are buying aggressively, yet net exposure remains low. Semis versus software was the pain trade of the summer, both ways.

Everyone Is Bearish at the Highs

Retail bears in the AAII survey have averaged above 40% for three weeks while the S&P sits 1.5% from a record and the VIX closed at 14.4. Hedge fund net exposure is at its 1st percentile over one year. Historically, bearish sentiment above 40% with VIX under 20 produced average gains of 1.1% in a month and 2.9% in three, with a 75% hit rate. The pain trade points up.

China Leads 69 of 74 Critical Technologies

Twenty years ago the US led China 60 to 3 in critical technology research. The latest count shows China ahead in 69 of 74, installing ten times America’s industrial robots and producing a third of global manufacturing. Beijing now applies the solar-and-EV playbook to seeds and farm robotics. Meanwhile 244 Chinese government vessels swarmed Taiwan in a record month, three weeks before Xi meets Trump.

Humanoids: Goldman Multiplies Its Forecast by Four

Goldman now expects 75,000 humanoid robot shipments this year, 890,000 by 2030 and 6.5 million by 2035, a $138 billion market, up from 1.4 million previously. Warehouses come first; Amazon already runs over a million robots across 300 sites. Costs should fall 7% a year. Unitree’s IPO is already wobbling on bubble fears, which is exactly how every infrastructure boom starts.

THE WEEK: Payrolls Decide, Waller Talks, Broadcom Reports

ISM manufacturing and JOLTS open the week today, the Fed’s Beige Book follows Wednesday, and Thursday brings ISM services plus Governor Waller, the dove who turned hawk after losing the chair race. Broadcom and Dell report. Friday’s payrolls carry the weight: a second negative print and the September hike wobbles. Beyond that, CPI lands September 11, Treasury buybacks start September 9, and the Fed decides September 16.

Tactics for this Tape

Carry less directional exposure into Friday and CPI, and let cheap options do the work: one-month index calls for the upside, three-month index put spreads for the downside, and puts on high-yield ETFs if you want to bet that record-tight credit spreads finally widen. Favor Nasdaq over small caps, refiners over crude, and buy gold and bitcoin on dips rather than strength.

Don’t guess. Reach out. Let’s build a capital-efficient yet risk-managed strategy from the option chain up.

Get Rich Overnight with Options? Yeah Right...

TUESDAY TARGET: Amplitude (AMPL)

Amplitude runs the analytics that tell software companies what users actually do inside their apps, exactly the data an AI agent needs before it can act. The stock bled from $15 to under $6 over eighteen months, then doubled since July and just cleared its long-term downtrend on the weekly chart, with revenue growing 18% while software flips from AI victim to AI winner.

We take the January 2027 $15 call at about $2.05, 136 days of runway, breakeven near $15 if the move arrives within two months. Years of dead money, one quarter of proof.

Be prepared to sit on an 80% loss at some point on the way up, so size the paper trade accordingly, or use a mental stop, or wait for a pullback if AMPL is generous enough to revisit the green Fibonacci zone. The machine says shares win. I say take it as a longer-term Autobahn trade and swing for the fences with a plain long call.

The idea, of course, is taken straight from the Daily Doze Autobahn trade board, free to read for every subscriber:

⓵ AUTOBAHN: Growth at Full Speed

This is not an official trade entry, just food for thought. Official trade entries are posted in the Trade Alerts section. Over there, we relentlessly innovate and deliver novel setups.

All our recent trades and the reasoning behind them can be found in the Trade Alerts section. Think of it as a behind-the-scenes look into our process, so you can decide if it’s worth adopting (or adapting) in your own strategy.

☕ NEW: The Daily Doze

A live read on the market, refreshed through the trading day. Eight boards.

⓵ AUTOBAHN: Growth at Full Speed (free)
⓶ DEEP VALUE: Historically Cheap, Still Growing
⓷ ULTIMATE BEAR: Weak Names, Ready to Short
⓸ SLEEPER AGENT: Movement on Sale
⓹ BOILER ROOM: Premium Worth Selling
⓺ EARNINGS GRENADE: Fear vs Reality
⓻ TIME MACHINE: Sell Front, Own Back
⓼ GAMMA MAP: Walls, Pins, Trapdoors

Every Tuesday Target trade walks straight off one of these boards; the Daily Doze pays for itself before your first sip.

Refill your cup → Daily Doze

FIND TRADES

🧠 Elite Trader Plan

And if you need a calm, step-by-step options plan that grows accounts and tames big swings, check out the Elite Trader Plan. In 4–8 sessions, we will bring you fully up to speed, all included in the plan.

JOIN THE COURSE

📅 60-Minute Mentorship Call

More time = more value.

📌 Advanced Options

📌 Risk Management

📌 Capital Efficiency

• Rate: $135 | 👉 Book 60-Minute Call

• Elite Trader: $110 | 👉 Book Elite Trader Call

BOOK 60-MINUTE CALL

⏳ 30-Minute Session

Less time = more often.

📚 In-Depth Learning

🧠 Strategy Breakdowns

🔍 Trade Reviews

• Rate: $95 | 👉 Book 30-Minute Call

• Elite Trader: $55 | 👉 Book Elite Trader Call

BOOK 30-MINUTE CALL

Tuesday Target is written by Juri von Randow — founder of MacroDozer, professional investor, and trading mentor — delivering institutional-grade trade ideas, market insights, and strategy every week for serious1 investors.

🚨 Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance ≠ future results.

Most traders enter earnings trades in the morning and pick a direction. I do neither. This clip from a live Elite Trader call walks through the checklist: how to compare the expected move with past moves, estimate the volatility crush, double-check with the straddle, and why a neutral entry ten minutes before the close gets you fair fills.

Every Wednesday we run a session like this on a real portfolio. One free lesson a week lands here; the full calls and the archive are part of the Elite Trader Plan.

See the Elite Trader Plan

Book a 60-Minute Call

🚨 Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance ≠ future results.

Session Recap

We spent most of the call on how to analyse and price an earnings trade end to end, using the Earnings Grenade list, then walked through the current book, several of the other screening lists, and the state of the tools still in development.

The streamlined recording and the complete breakdown are below, for Elite Trader members. 👇

Read more

Everyone’s screaming about 5% yields like the sky is falling. Quick history check: the long bond spent most of the last sixty years around these levels. The real freak show was the fifteen years of free money after 2008, which taught a whole generation of investors the wrong baseline. Today’s crisis is simply the old price tag coming back on.

And the price tag applies to everyone now. Even Saudi Arabia, the world’s most famous bottomless checkbook, just discovered capital discipline: the 170-kilometer mirror city quietly stalled after $50 billion, the giant cube in Riyadh is on ice, the golf league is behind on its bills, and Newcastle is selling its stars. When princes start demanding a return on capital, the free-money era has officially been buried.

Here’s the twist the doomers miss: scarcity sharpens. When Napoleon pulled Britain’s farmhands off to war, wages jumped and farms mechanized, and the Industrial Revolution accelerated. Fresh research shows the lowest-birthrate countries out-innovated and out-grew everyone for seventy years. Expensive money and scarce people force sharper tools. Sounds like our home turf.

Below, as always, the minimum you need to know, and not a word more:

The Squeeze Behind the Curtain

Trend-following funds hold near-record short positions in Treasuries. Goldman estimates a two-sigma price rally would trigger the largest forced short covering ever recorded. Engineer a bounce, let the machines chase it, and 10-year yields could slide toward 4.30% right before the midterms. Watch for aggressive squeeze attempts latest on Friday.

Warsh’s High-Wire Friday

Jackson Hole’s keynote lands Friday at 10am EDT, the new Fed Chair’s first. Markets need him to defend the 2% inflation target with real conviction, even at the cost of friction with the White House. A vague, big-picture speech would confirm suspicions that nobody in Washington prioritizes inflation, inviting the bond market to resume testing everyone’s pain threshold.

The $2.3 Trillion Due Date

AI’s problem now has a price and a date. The price: token costs collapsed nearly half since May as competition and free mystery models deflate the very product all that hardware produces. The date: the four biggest US cloud providers carry roughly $2.3 trillion in contracted computing rentals, nearly half owed by OpenAI and Anthropic alone, with mortgage-style payments starting 2027-2028 regardless of demand. And it keeps growing: Broadcom added a $100 billion off-balance-sheet debt deal Friday, and its default insurance promptly jumped.

Economic D-Day for Tehran

Washington sanctioned nearly 60 Iran-linked entities and threatened secondary sanctions across shipping, gold, aviation, technology, and digital assets, with a major financial institution reportedly next. Oil fell on the news as tanker traffic through Hormuz resumed under US protection. The market now prices economic strangulation as de-escalation. A cornered regime rarely honors that assumption for long.

Bitcoin’s $2.7 Billion Bonfire

Bitcoin ripped 20% in three days, its biggest such rally since early 2023, briefly touching $80,000 while $2.73 billion in shorts got liquidated, the largest crypto short-wipeout on record. The debasement crowd reads Treasury intervention as money printing. Last time a similar three-day burst appeared, price rolled back to its 200-day average before resuming.

THE WEEK: Three Tests in Five Days

The calendar packs the year’s remaining suspense into one stretch: Nvidia earnings Wednesday, July core PCE with consensus near 20bps, and Friday’s double feature at 10am EDT, Warsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote alongside the BLS payroll benchmark revisions. Add 2-, 5-, and 7-year auctions, RBA minutes, and thin late-August liquidity, and the implied S&P move of 1.31% looks optimistic.

Tactics for this Tape

Stay nimble and keep positions small into Friday. Squeezes cut both ways here, so defined-risk structures beat naked directional bets, and hard assets plus boring balance sheets remain the quiet bid. Let Washington fight the bond market with your risk pre-defined, and keep dry powder for the dislocations this week will almost certainly serve.

Don’t guess. Reach out. Let’s build a capital-efficient yet risk-managed strategy from the option chain up.

Get Rich Overnight with Options? Yeah Right...

TUESDAY TARGET: CrowdStrike (CRWD)

Potential earnings trade, strikes dummies for now, to be put on right before earnings call and adjusted for share price moves until right before earnings.

CrowdStrike reports tomorrow after close. Ahead of earnings, option prices balloon, traders pay up for big moves. We take the other side and sell that expensive premium through an iron condor: defined risk, and we profit as long as the stock stays inside our break-evens, which sit wider than the move the market itself expects.

After the report, the inflated premium deflates fast, and that deflation is our edge. Boring by design, exactly how we like earnings.

Trade, for now, passed the Daily Doze → Earnings Grenade test:

This is not an official trade entry, just food for thought. Official trade entries are posted in the Trade Alerts section. Over there, we relentlessly innovate and deliver novel setups.

All our recent trades and the reasoning behind them can be found in the Trade Alerts section. Think of it as a behind-the-scenes look into our process, so you can decide if it’s worth adopting (or adapting) in your own strategy.

☕ NEW: The Daily Doze

A live read on the market, refreshed through the trading day. Eight boards.

⓵ AUTOBAHN: Growth at Full Speed (free)
⓶ DEEP VALUE: Historically Cheap, Still Growing
⓷ ULTIMATE BEAR: Weak Names, Ready to Short
⓸ SLEEPER AGENT: Movement on Sale
⓹ BOILER ROOM: Premium Worth Selling
⓺ EARNINGS GRENADE: Fear vs Reality
⓻ TIME MACHINE: Sell Front, Own Back
⓼ GAMMA MAP: Walls, Pins, Trapdoors

Every Tuesday Target trade walks straight off one of these boards; the Daily Doze pays for itself before your first sip.

Refill your cup → Daily Doze

FIND TRADES

🧠 Elite Trader Plan

And if you need a calm, step-by-step options plan that grows accounts and tames big swings, check out the Elite Trader Plan. In 4–8 sessions, we will bring you fully up to speed, all included in the plan.

JOIN THE COURSE

📅 60-Minute Mentorship Call

More time = more value.

📌 Advanced Options

📌 Risk Management

📌 Capital Efficiency

• Rate: $135 | 👉 Book 60-Minute Call

• Elite Trader: $110 | 👉 Book Elite Trader Call

BOOK 60-MINUTE CALL

⏳ 30-Minute Session

Less time = more often.

📚 In-Depth Learning

🧠 Strategy Breakdowns

🔍 Trade Reviews

• Rate: $95 | 👉 Book 30-Minute Call

• Elite Trader: $55 | 👉 Book Elite Trader Call

BOOK 30-MINUTE CALL

Tuesday Target is written by Juri von Randow — founder of MacroDozer, professional investor, and trading mentor — delivering institutional-grade trade ideas, market insights, and strategy every week for serious1 investors.

🚨 Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance ≠ future results.

Master Trade Management. Become an Elite Trader.

Don’t fight for pennies, just get in and earn it daily.

Read more

Most traders want to win two and risk one. On an iron condor I do the reverse, and this clip from a live Elite Trader call explains why: how the probabilities, the premium and the exit rule turn a payoff that looks upside down into one that compounds.

Every Wednesday we run a session like this on a real portfolio. One free lesson a week lands here; the full calls and the archive are part of the Elite Trader Plan.

See the Elite Trader Plan

Book a 60-Minute Call

🚨 Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance ≠ future results.

No slides. No theory. We open the boards, price real trades, and I say out loud why each one is in or out.

Heat, cover, win odds, gamma, IV rank. This is what we look at, and this is how we read it.

📅 One-On-One

Your positions, your account, your questions. Whatever you bring is what we work on.

BOOK 60-MINUTE CALL

🧠 Elite Trader Group Sessions

The same thing in a small group, every week, live one hour after the open. Recorded, so nothing is lost if you miss it.

JOIN THE COURSE

Sessions are run by Juri von Randow, founder of MacroDozer, professional investor, and trading mentor, working one-on-one and in a small weekly group with serious1 investors.

🚨 Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance ≠ future results.

Master Trade Management. Become an Elite Trader.

Don’t fight for pennies — just get out and celebrate.

Read more

Session Recap

A cozy weekly call spent strolling through the open positions (TLT, gold, Korea, and an LOW earnings play), talking through how a slower ServiceNow iron fly is behaving, and reviewing the state of the Daily Doze lists and the more defensive way we’re sizing new trades.

The streamlined recording and the complete breakdown are below, for Elite Trader members. 👇

Read more

Markets look sedated. VIX at year lows, single-stock volatility melting, everyone tanning. Want the punchline behind the calm? Korean retail traders, the same crowd that swore off stocks two weeks ago, are back, funding juicy 20% coupons by selling billions in exotic autocallable notes on Nvidia, Micron, and Tesla. In plain English: they collect rent for insuring the market against big moves, dealers hedge by dumping volatility, and the whole tape gets pinned. Roughly $300 billion of this paper has quietly coiled the market into a spring. History says these things grind lower but gap violently higher, forcing everyone to chase.

Meanwhile, the professionals deserve some humility too. Jane Street, the trading machine that ignites momentum and skims the spread both ways, just posted a $15 billion loss in July, its first down month in a decade, flattened by the very reflexes it built. The herd-hunters became the herd.

And the oldest money in Europe? The Rothschilds’ Monaco bank openly calls AI a probable bubble, then advises clients to stay invested, own the shovel-makers, and watch credit for the exit signal. Two centuries of banking wisdom, distilled: dance while the music plays, near the door.

Below, as always, all you need to know and not a word more:

AI Debt Is Eating the Treasury Market

Corporate debt issuance is running 61% above last year, and AI-related borrowing alone has hit $269 billion year-to-date, roughly twelve times the annual average of the past decade. All this paper competes directly with Washington for the same bond buyers. The result: a structurally steeper curve, crowded-out duration demand, and a creeping fear that nobody controls long-term yields anymore.

Oil: Volatility as a Weapon

The Strait stays closed, Iran turns openly offensive, and Trump threatens Oman. Yet oil sits in the mid-80s. Washington’s trick: firing contradictory headlines daily, whipsawing prices so violently that traders’ risk models force them to stay small. Nobody can hold a position long enough to push crude higher. Meanwhile inventories drain by millions of barrels daily. Break the range, and this suppressed spring snaps violently.

Worst Season, Zero Fear

Since 1990, the equal-weight S&P has suffered at least a 7% pullback in nearly every August-to-October stretch of midterm years. We enter that exact window with the index at record highs, volatility at yearly lows, and, remarkably, not a single 80% downside-volume day all year, against an annual average of twenty-one. Protection is historically cheap right when the calendar turns hostile.

Hedge Funds Went All-In Last Week

Prime brokerage data shows hedge funds bought US equities every single day last week at the second-fastest pace in a year, led by tech and semiconductors. Meanwhile gross leverage sits near one-year lows, meaning the fuel tank for further chasing is full. Positioning washouts in July have flipped into a re-risking cycle. Momentum begets momentum.

Gold Wins Both Ways

Gold reclaimed $4,400 with central banks buying, Western ETF flows returning, and the biggest fund inflows since January. The beauty of the setup: bullion rallies whether markets fear inflation or deflation, hawkish policy error or dovish surrender. With Fed-hike risk fading and fiscal credibility eroding, forecasts near $4,900 by year-end look less heroic than they sound.

Most Data Centers Exist Only in PowerPoint

Of the 500 gigawatts of announced data centers, analysts judge only a third credible, 5% are actually under way, and local opposition has already stalled $286 billion worth. Here’s the catch: utilities, grid, and power stocks are priced off those announcements, while actual utility capacity utilization sits at decade lows. When betting on the electricity boom, check who the tenant is. Hyperscaler-backed projects get built. Promoter slideware doesn’t.

THE WEEK: Minutes, Retailers, 25-Year Auction Record

Wednesday’s FOMC minutes headline a quiet calendar, revealing whether the hawkish appetite extended beyond July’s three dissenters. Retail earnings from Home Depot, Target, and Walmart test the softening consumer. Wednesday’s 20-year auction could become the most expensive Treasury issuance in 25 years, and Friday’s flash PMIs close things out. Jackson Hole looms August 28, where Warsh finally shows his cards.

Tactics for this Tape

Stay invested, but stop chasing. With volatility at yearly lows, protection costs pocket change right as the calendar turns hostile. Trim stretched winners, keep powder dry, and let options do the heavy lifting: cheap index hedges plus selective upside in the purged names. When insurance is this underpriced, wealth preservation and opportunity finally cost the same.

Don’t guess. Reach out. Let’s build a capital-efficient yet risk-managed strategy from the option chain up.

Get Rich Overnight with Options? Yeah Right...

TUESDAY TARGET: 20+ Treasuries (TLT)

Our newest segment Daily Doze, still in beta, is already spitting out trades on an hourly basis: quant at its best. The options premium board wants us to have a deeper look at TLT:

Everyone hates long bonds right now. The 30-year just printed its highest yield since 2007, trend followers are max short, and Anything But Bonds is Wall Street’s favorite acronym. That is exactly the setup for a stall: sellers exhausted, yet every rally capped by trillion-dollar supply. Soft jobs data limits the downside, relentless issuance plus Japan fear limits the upside, and TLT likely chops sideways while both camps catch their breath. We sell that indecision with a 31-day iron condor and let time decay pay us daily while the tug-of-war continues.

This is not an official trade entry, just food for thought. Official trade entries are posted in the Trade Alerts section. Over there, we relentlessly innovate and deliver novel setups.

All our recent trades and the reasoning behind them can be found in the Trade Alerts section. Think of it as a behind-the-scenes look into our process, so you can decide if it’s worth adopting (or adapting) in your own strategy.

☕ NEW: The Daily Doze

A live read on the market, refreshed through the trading day. Eight boards.

⓵ AUTOBAHN: Growth at Full Speed (free)
⓶ BOILER ROOM: Premium Worth Selling
⓷ TIME MACHINE: Sell Front, Own Back
⓸ CHEAP GAMMA: Movement on Sale
⓹ EARNINGS GRENADE: Fear vs Reality
⓺ GAMMA MAP: Walls, Pins, Trapdoors
⓻ ULTIMATE BEAR: Weak Names, Ready to Short
⓼ DEEP VALUE: Historically Cheap, Still Growing

Every Tuesday Target trade walks straight off one of these boards; the Daily Doze pays for itself before your first sip.

Refill your cup → Daily Doze

FIND TRADES

🧠 Elite Trader Plan

And if you need a calm, step-by-step options plan that grows accounts and tames big swings, check out the Elite Trader Plan. In 4–8 sessions, we will bring you fully up to speed, all included in the plan.

JOIN THE COURSE

📅 60-Minute Mentorship Call

More time = more value.

📌 Advanced Options

📌 Risk Management

📌 Capital Efficiency

• Rate: $135 | 👉 Book 60-Minute Call

• Elite Trader: $110 | 👉 Book Elite Trader Call

BOOK 60-MINUTE CALL

⏳ 30-Minute Session

Less time = more often.

📚 In-Depth Learning

🧠 Strategy Breakdowns

🔍 Trade Reviews

• Rate: $95 | 👉 Book 30-Minute Call

• Elite Trader: $55 | 👉 Book Elite Trader Call

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Tuesday Target is written by Juri von Randow — founder of MacroDozer, professional investor, and trading mentor — delivering institutional-grade trade ideas, market insights, and strategy every week for serious1 investors.

🚨 Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance ≠ future results.

Master Trade Management. Become an Elite Trader.

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Session Recap

We walked through the current portfolio and then spent most of the call touring the screening tools, the boiler room premium-selling lists (Daily Doze, Brazil, TLT/LQD examples), the new directional lists (Autobahn, Value), and the earnings grenade list, with a live look at a Nebius setup.

The streamlined recording and the complete breakdown are below, for Elite Trader members. 👇

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The week’s favorite pastime: screaming bubble at Nvidia’s $500 billion financing carousel. Fine, scream away. Meanwhile, the most telling AI headline slipped past almost unnoticed: Apple is testing memory chips from CXMT, a Chinese manufacturer on the Pentagon’s blacklist over alleged army ties, and lobbying the White House for a blessing. HP and Acer skipped the courtesy call; their laptops already ship with Chinese memory outside the US.

Why would the world’s most image-obsessed company risk a Washington firestorm? Because AI demand has swallowed global memory production whole. The Korean-American cartel, SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron, SanDisk, is sold out through 2027, DRAM spot prices went vertical, and Apple calls the pricing unsustainable while quietly raising iPhone prices to cover it.

Here’s what I think: nobody begs their geopolitical rival for parts of a fake boom. Scarcity this brutal is the market’s bluntest proof that AI has crossed from story to business. The receipts keep piling up: MercadoLibre now runs 90% of its customer service without a human while the business tripled. Airbnb ships products up to 60% faster. Google’s and Amazon’s cloud backlogs each sit near half a trillion dollars. Akamai’s GPUs? Sold out to the last card.

Savor the irony: export controls were built to starve Chinese chipmakers; now America’s crown jewel wants to feed one. Price signals eat policy doctrine for breakfast, and the tech cold war just met its deadliest opponent: a purchasing department.

Below, as always, all you need to know and not a word more:

The Emptiest Piggy Bank Since 1983

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell another 6.1 million barrels to 298.7 million, the lowest since 1983 and already inside the 250–300 million zone the industry treats as its operational floor. Washington’s cushion against Hormuz is nearly spent. Unconfirmed reports say Tehran has concluded it can simply wait out this administration until January 2029. Patience, it turns out, is also a weapon.

Bessent’s Invisible Hand

Treasury Secretary Bessent spent the week signaling he wants long yields contained: coordinated yen operations, public support for Warsh, hints at trimming long-dated supply. Monday answered him, yields climbed right alongside oil, with the 30-year back near 5.25%. This week brings $125 billion of 3-, 10-, and 30-year auctions. Jawboning meets supply; historically, supply wins.

Gold Ignores the Rulebook

Gold printed fresh cycle highs above $4,350 on Monday despite a firmer dollar and rising yields, the exact conditions that usually sink it. Central-bank buying rebounded, Chinese speculators re-engaged, ETFs added 24 tons since late July, and trend-followers remain short, leaving fuel for further squeezes. One caution: BTIG flags heavy technical resistance in the $4,400–4,500 zone.

Sell Signals Are Stacking Up

BofA’s Bull & Bear indicator hit 9.7, its highest since the 2021 meme mania and firmly in sell territory. BTIG adds a technical rhyme: the S&P’s breakout mirrors late 2021, when the index sprinted to highs while momentum stocks sat in a 25% drawdown; that one faltered. Equal-weight has rallied through unwind and rebound alike, raising air-pocket risk.

The $1.4 Trillion Safety Net

The bull counterweight: US buyback authorizations run at a record $989 billion year-to-date, and Goldman expects $1.4 trillion of gross repurchases to swallow roughly $700 billion of equity issuance plus any lockup supply. August ranks among the heaviest buyback months, with 93% of S&P companies out of blackout. Corporate demand still outweighs corporate supply; for now.

THE WEEK: Inflation Data Meets a Wall of Bonds

July CPI arrives Wednesday, with forecasters watching for payback from June’s odd price swings in core goods and services. Thursday’s PPI counts double for the Fed’s preferred gauge; healthcare, airfares, and portfolio management feed straight into core PCE. Friday delivers retail sales and Michigan sentiment. Between them: $125 billion of 3-, 10-, and 30-year auctions, RBA and Norges Bank decisions, plus earnings from Cisco, Applied Materials, Tencent, and BYD.

Tactics for this Tape

Stay invested, stay hedged, stay unimpressed. Record-flat skew means call spreads and downside protection both trade cheap; own convexity while the market hands it out. Respect the mechanical levels: dealer short calls above 7,900, sell triggers clustered roughly 4% below. And keep dry powder for August 26, when Nvidia earnings collide with Jackson Hole week.

Don’t guess. Reach out. Let’s build a capital-efficient yet risk-managed strategy from the option chain up.

Get Rich Overnight with Options? Yeah Right...

TUESDAY TARGET: Devon Energy (DVN)

Our newest segment Daily Doze, still in beta, is already spitting out trades on an hourly basis: quant at its best. The options premium board wants us to have a deeper look at DVN, so here we are:

Everyone in energy is paying for action. War premium in case Hormuz stays shut, crash protection in case a deal does to crude what June’s ceasefire did; nobody wants to own the boring middle. Yet the middle is exactly what Washington and Tehran keep delivering: Trump calls it semi-negotiating, Iran hints it can outwait him until 2029, and Goldman pegs fair value at $80–90 Brent until something breaks.

Meanwhile, DVN has spent the summer chopping sideways while its options still price a headline that never arrives. So we sell both stories at once, a defined-risk range trade that collects rent from everyone else’s fear. War or peace ends the trade; purgatory pays it.

This is not an official trade entry, just food for thought. Official trade entries are posted in the Trade Alerts section. Over there, we relentlessly innovate and deliver novel setups.

All our recent trades and the reasoning behind them can be found in the Trade Alerts section. Think of it as a behind-the-scenes look into our process, so you can decide if it’s worth adopting (or adapting) in your own strategy.

☕ NEW: The Daily Doze

A live read on the market, refreshed through the trading day. Eight boards.

⓵ THE AUTOBAHN: Growth at Full Speed (free)
⓶ BOILER ROOM: Premium Worth Selling
⓷ TIME MACHINE: Sell Front, Own Back
⓸ CHEAP GAMMA: Movement on Sale
⓹ EARNINGS GRENADE: Fear vs Reality
⓺ GAMMA MAP: Walls, Pins, Trapdoors
⓻ ULTIMATE BEAR: Weak Names, Ready to Short
⓼ VALUE LIST: Historically Cheap, Still Growing

Every Tuesday Target trade walks straight off one of these boards; the Daily Doze pays for itself before your first sip.

Refill your cup → Daily Doze

FIND TRADES

🧠 Elite Trader Plan

And if you need a calm, step-by-step options plan that grows accounts and tames big swings, check out the Elite Trader Plan. In 4–8 sessions, we will bring you fully up to speed, all included in the plan.

JOIN THE COURSE

📅 60-Minute Mentorship Call

More time = more value.

📌 Advanced Options

📌 Risk Management

📌 Capital Efficiency

• Rate: $135 | 👉 Book 60-Minute Call

• Elite Trader: $110 | 👉 Book Elite Trader Call

BOOK 60-MINUTE CALL

⏳ 30-Minute Session

Less time = more often.

📚 In-Depth Learning

🧠 Strategy Breakdowns

🔍 Trade Reviews

• Rate: $95 | 👉 Book 30-Minute Call

• Elite Trader: $55 | 👉 Book Elite Trader Call

BOOK 30-MINUTE CALL

Tuesday Target is written by Juri von Randow — founder of MacroDozer, professional investor, and trading mentor — delivering institutional-grade trade ideas, market insights, and strategy every week for serious1 investors.

🚨 Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance ≠ future results.

Session Recap

We ran through a Discord impersonation scam targeting MacroDozer members, then spent most of the call testing the new Boiler Room screening tool live and pricing several calendar and iron condor ideas together, plus a check-in on the running trades.

The streamlined recording and the complete breakdown are below, for Elite Trader members. 👇

Read more