Oil never calmed down after our entry, and XLE has spent a week at the top edge of our range. Exxon and Chevron report tomorrow morning, and we promised to be out before they do.

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Today, 2:30 pm London, 10:30 am New York. Thirty minutes on this week's EWZ trade, live on Zoom: where it stands, what has changed since Tuesday, your questions.

The Zoom link went out by email on Thursday morning to the free list. Sign up and next week's link comes to you too:

Read the letter if you missed it on Tuesday.

Education only. Nothing here is investment advice. Options carry risk, including the loss of the whole stake.

Slightly Bearish on Purpose

An iron condor on EWZ, the Brazil fund, built for the election weekend, October 23 to 26. I personally would have put it on more bullish, probably selling the 44 or 45. But I was nonstop calculating expected values with my Python scripts and Claude: Bolsonaro wins, Lula wins, contested election. Slightly bearish covered both wins. A crazy 25 percent crash was the only thing it would not have covered.

Something for the Nerves

Then the unlikely happened for a moment and Brazil dropped. Something for the nerves. It was bought up, bought up, bought up, and all of a sudden we were at plus 25 percent. A new student had my last hour, so I closed an hour early. It ran further into the close.

The Story Is Over

After the event the curve had changed. The condor turned into a very short-term directional trade that looked a little like a call debit spread. The story was over, so I closed it. In a November contract a dip before the rebound costs a lot.

The Rebound Gets Its Own Trade

The bullish idea went out the next day as a Tuesday Target, a long-dated trade into January. I checked calls and call debit spreads, and the naked long call was probably the best trade. I did not go in myself.

Every Wednesday, Elite Traders watch me run a real portfolio live, and one free lesson a week lands here.

🚨 Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance ≠ future results.

Session Recap

We opened with a walk through the current setups in IGV, TLT and XLE, then unpacked the Brazil iron condor and how it was built from scenario expected values. From there we went through the latest Daily Doze updates, the TradingView integration via the MacroDozer Companion extension, and finished by structuring two Earnings Grenade candidates in MRK and XOM step by step.

The streamlined recording and the complete breakdown are below, for Elite Trader members. 👇

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Smaller size this week: 2 percent of the account at risk instead of 5. A single call has no stop here: the price paid is the whole risk, so the position is sized for losing all of it.

What Is a Long Call. You buy a call at 34 for 212 dollars per contract. That price is the most you can lose.

Enter it as a limit order at the mid, day order. A few cents more is fine to get filled.

The Setup

On Sunday, October 25, Lula won Brazil's runoff with 51.8 percent after trailing in the first round, a result prediction markets had put at about one in five. On Monday EWZ, the big Brazil fund, fell 19.8 percent, its worst day since March 2020. Ibovespa futures dropped 20 percent and hit a circuit breaker, and the real lost as much as 11 percent. At the low the fund was down 26 percent; it closed almost 9 percent off that low.

Crashes on one surprise often overshoot. The fund gave back two months of gains in a day and closed back at its August level. Its options did not panic with it: the January calls price about 31 percent volatility, less than the fund moved before the vote. So I buy one January call, a small bet on a partial bounce with the worst case fixed at the price paid.

Where You Win, Where You Lose

EWZ long call, 2.12 debit: the grey line is the profit or loss at expiry, the orange curve on Dec 6, about halfway to expiry, with the breakeven at 35.20. Max loss $212, max gain open-ended per contract.

What you are betting. You are betting that the fund wins back about 8 percent, to around 37, before the selling resumes. Reached by late November, that is worth about 70 percent on the money at risk; at 38 it is about double.

When we are wrong, and what we do then. The story breaks if Monday's low gives way, a close about 8 percent down: then the market sees a fiscal crisis, not a scare. Even so we do not sell: the call can recover into January, and the price paid is the whole risk. The exit rule: when the shares close above 37 the target is reached and we sell the call; otherwise we sell it on expiry day, January 15, before the close, so it is never exercised into shares. The price paid is the whole risk.

The Chart

Brazil (EWZ), daily candles over six months with the 40, 50 and 200 day averages. The dashed line is the breakeven on Dec 6, 35.20; above it the trade is in profit.

Trend: down 20 percent on Monday and 22 percent under the October 5 high, back at its August level, still up 7.5 percent this year and under its 40 and 50 day averages (EMA40 and EMA50 as drawn).

Levels: the target near 37 is where the 200-day average sits and half the crash is regained; Monday's low near 31.40 is the line that breaks the story.

The Big Picture

The big houses split on what comes next. UBS sees Brazilian stocks falling another 10 to 15 percent, and JPMorgan cut Brazil's currency and rates to market weight. Société Générale is looking to buy the real at 5.70 to 5.75 per dollar, and Brown Brothers Harriman sees a buying opportunity in the selloff.

My target is modest: the zone around 37, about 8 percent above Monday's close, where the 200-day average sits and half the crash is regained. A bounce of that size needs no good news, only for the forced selling to stop. Lula also faces a Congress that leans right, which limits how far he can loosen spending.

Three Things That Matter Before Jan 15

Société Générale says markets may stabilize quickly if the finance minister keeps stressing fiscal discipline. A credible budget signal could lift the fund fast; a vague one keeps the pressure on while time eats the call's value.

Flávio Bolsonaro wants the runoff annulled over a two-hour voting extension; UBS calls the request unlikely to hold water. A long legal fight would keep a risk premium on Brazil and slow any bounce.

Earnings land inside the trade: Vale reports on October 29, Itaú on November 3 and Petrobras on November 10. Big holdings reporting early can move the whole fund before the political story settles, in either direction.

Sources: Polymarket, Oct 25. Brazil's Superior Electoral Court, Oct 26. B3 and market data, Oct 26. UBS, Oct 26. JPMorgan, Oct 26. Société Générale, Oct 26. Brown Brothers Harriman, Oct 26. Company calendars, Oct 27. Prices: mid quotes, Oct 27.

Tuesday Target Live This Thursday

Tuesday Target Live is my free Thursday session: thirty minutes on Zoom, the Tuesday Target trade on screen. This Thursday, October 29, at 2:30 pm London time, 10:30 am in New York: where the EWZ trade stands, what has changed since Tuesday, and your questions. It is free. One click on the link and you are in, no Zoom account needed.

The Zoom link goes out by email on Thursday morning to everyone on the free Tuesday Target list. Not on it yet? One click below and it reaches you too.

Every Tuesday Target of the year, scored, winners and losers alike.

Every entry, repair and exit in my own account is posted the moment I make it: Trade Alerts, part of Pro.

Every Wednesday, Elite Traders watch me run a real portfolio live. A growing lesson library and ten one-on-one sessions with me come with it.

All articles are purely educational; they are not tailored to any particular individual or portfolio and do not constitute investment advice.

Free, before the US open every Tuesday. One trade, the full risk math, every result scored in public.

What Lands in Your Inbox

This week's card and chart, exactly as they went out.

Brazil Crashed 20% in a Day. I Buy the Bounce (EWZ) Oct 27, 2026

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The Record So Far

Every trade of the year, scored by the same rules.

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Written by Juri von Randow, former investment banker, trading his own book. Everything starts with the free issue.

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Everything on MacroDozer is for education only. Nothing published is investment advice, and past performance does not predict future results. Options carry risk, including the loss of the entire amount invested.

Brazil chose the result the market had ruled out, and its stock exchange hit the circuit breaker on Monday morning. Our runoff condor took the blow, held its shape, and we close it today as the plan says.

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My own account and every trade I alerted, wins and losses alike, refreshed on the first of each month.

The sharp fall in autumn 2025 was my mistake. I increased the risk on most of my open positions for a little extra return, and a run of losers hit at the exact same time. Smaller, more steady and sustainable returns since.

The Record in Four Numbers

Up 65% since January 2024, in my own account, after every commission and fee. The trades that built that number were posted as alerts; the ten newest follow below.

Last 10 Closed Trades, Newest First

The profit and loss percentages run on the risk capital. Each trade risks a small percentage of the options account.

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Where the Numbers Come From

Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not predict future results.

Why the trade sits red

XLE has about 30 days left and sits relatively negative. First of all, war. Second, ExxonMobil and Chevron are 40 percent of the entire ETF, and on October 30 they both have earnings, right inside my iron condor. We are down two divided by 17, about 15 percent, and that is okay. It might go up a little more first, and hopefully it turns down from there.

What I checked before entry

I checked ExxonMobil and I checked Chevron before I entered, of course. On earnings day they barely move. Even in a wild phase they paused at the report. Both names move like the same asset, so that is why I went into XLE.

Volatility still bites

The implied volatility probably creeps up towards their earnings anyway, and that hurts our iron condor a little bit. That is why we see so little green here. We could hold this one until day 16 also.

Before the report

Nothing is decided yet. If we sit outside the break-even going into the report, I might just exit, because earnings are still a binary event, and if they shoot up from there, that could be a little bit dangerous. I am not sure yet. We see right before the report.

Every Wednesday, Elite Traders watch me run a real portfolio live, and one free lesson a week lands here.

🚨 Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance ≠ future results.

Session Recap

We walked through the three open iron condor setups the group has been following (software, TLT and XLE), checked what the Boiler Room is offering right now, and reviewed two Tuesday Target ideas on request: the GLD call debit spread and the new SPY iron condor. Along the way we got a first look at the MacroDozer indicator that now draws profitability windows straight onto TradingView.

The streamlined recording and the complete breakdown are below, for Elite Trader members. 👇

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Members on what MacroDozer does for them, in their words. Every quote comes from a member's email or sign-up note. Nothing is edited except for length.

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Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not predict future results.

The market is getting top-heavy, and everyone who is long is paying up for protection. This week's free trade sells it: an iron condor on SPY into December that leans bearish. It looks only slightly bearish, but the P&L curve is bent to the bear side, which makes it a fitting add-on for a portfolio that is already long.

On screen the condor goes into tastytrade live: sell the 735 put and the 790 call, buy the 720 put and the 805 call. Two days in it shows a small gain, and the break-evens for the exit day sit at 727.8 and 788.3, drawn onto the chart by the MacroDozer indicator.

If the market drifts down, the trade makes money from day one. A 5 percent sell-off is still inside the range. A fast one lifts implied volatility and pushes the whole curve to about break-even until the market relaxes. It is not built to survive a crash, and it is not meant to be. Two days ago it was the best trade out there, and that is why it was published.

Tuesday Target Live runs every Thursday on Zoom, free. The link comes with the free Tuesday Target email. Sign up and this week's trade and next Thursday's link come to you:

Read the letter: every number of the trade, free.

Education only. Nothing here is investment advice. Options carry risk, including the loss of the whole stake.

Brazil votes again on Sunday, and the options market charges a fortune for the weekend. We sell part of that fear with a new iron condor in EWZ, planned for the next 12 days.

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Today, 3:30 pm London, 10:30 am New York. Thirty minutes on this week's BNO trade, live on Zoom: where it stands, what has changed since Tuesday, your questions.

The Zoom link went out by email on Thursday morning to the free list. Sign up and next week's link comes to you too:

Read the letter if you missed it on Tuesday.

Education only. Nothing here is investment advice. Options carry risk, including the loss of the whole stake.

What Is an Iron Condor. You sell a put at 735 and a call at 790 and collect 635 dollars per contract from traders who bet on a big move. You buy a put at 720 and a call at 805 as insurance, so the worst case is fixed at 865 dollars.

Enter all four legs as one order at the mid, net credit, day order. A few cents less credit is fine to get filled.

The Setup

On Friday, October 16, traders bought more index puts on the Cboe than on any day since 2015, by Goldman's count, and the VIX closed just under 20. The index fell 1 percent that day and 2 percent on the week. SPY, the big S&P 500 fund, closed on Monday 1.6 percent below its record of October 6.

That panic buying is what we sell. SPY has moved like a calm fund lately, far calmer than its December options price. So I sell an iron condor into December: four options that pay me up front for fencing a range around today's price. The fence is not centred. It leans bearish: it wins most if the market drifts a little lower or goes nowhere, and it has less room on the upside. That suits a reader who already owns plenty of stocks and wants one position that pays if the rally pauses.

Where You Win, Where You Lose

SPY iron condor, 6.35 credit: the grey line is the profit or loss at expiry, the orange curve on Nov 27, the exit day, with breakevens at 727.80 and 788.30. Max loss $865, max gain $635 per contract.

What you are betting. You are betting that SPY stays between the two break-evens until November 27, about 5 percent below Monday's close to 3 percent above, more room down than up. Near today's price that pays about 40 percent on the money at risk.

When we are wrong, and what we do then. The story breaks if the range breaks: a sweep scare or credit accident that sends SPY below the lower break-even, about 5 percent down, or a relief rally past the upper one, 3 percent up, before November 27. The rally is the nearer danger. Half the stake lost is where I stop. The exit rule: out by November 27, three weeks before expiry; sitting in the middle of the range, I may hold longer. Earlier only if a fast move costs about half the stake and the story has changed.

The Chart

S&P 500 (SPY), daily candles over six months with the 40, 50 and 200 day averages. The box is where the whole credit is kept, the band between 727.80 and 788.30 is the profit zone on Nov 27.

Trend: up 12 percent this year and 1.6 percent under the record close of October 6, back above its 40 and 50 day averages after one close below on October 16 (EMA40 and EMA50 as drawn).

Levels: the lower break-even sits under the September low and the put wall near 745; the upper one above the record high, under the call wall near 795.

The Big Picture

The range is the market's own. The options price a move of about 5 percent either way by November 27; we fence the inside, top rail closer than the bottom one. Goldman's year-end target sits only 3 percent above Friday's close, about where our top rail is.

The big houses disagree, which is what a range trade wants. Bank of America's Michael Hartnett leans risk-off for three to four weeks; Goldman's Tony Pasquariello expects strength in November as buybacks return; JPMorgan counts an average 5 percent gain in the three months after a midterm. Hedge funds have already cut their exposure to a five-year low. Each has placed its bet; we collect from all three, leaning a little to Hartnett's side.

Three Things That Matter Before Nov 27

Four dates sit inside: the Fed on October 28, the midterms on November 3, the refunding on November 4 and 44 percent of the S&P reporting next week. With SPY near a break-even into any of them, I close early.

The upside is the thin side. Over the past year a box like this held about half the time, and nearly every break went up. The rally phase has to pause for the top rail to hold; that is the bearish lean.

Hartnett expects a skid of more than 10 percent on a Democratic sweep, priced at 64 percent, and a 5 percent gain on a split Congress. Goldman's history says less: a median 3.5 percent drop into a midterm since 1974.

Sources: Goldman, Oct 19. market wrap, Oct 19. BofA, Oct 18. Federal Reserve, Oct 1. market wrap, Oct 18. Goldman, Oct 16. Goldman, Oct 18. JPMorgan, Oct 16. Prices: mid quotes, Oct 20.

Tuesday Target Live This Thursday

Tuesday Target Live is my free Thursday session: thirty minutes on Zoom, the Tuesday Target trade on screen. This Thursday, October 22, at 3:30 pm London time, 10:30 am in New York: where the SPY trade stands, what has changed since Tuesday, and your questions. It is free. One click on the link and you are in, no Zoom account needed.

The Zoom link goes out by email on Thursday morning to everyone on the free Tuesday Target list. Not on it yet? One click below and it reaches you too.

Every Tuesday Target of the year, scored, winners and losers alike.

Every entry, repair and exit in my own account is posted the moment I make it: Trade Alerts, part of Pro.

Every Wednesday, Elite Traders watch me run a real portfolio live. A growing lesson library and ten one-on-one sessions with me come with it.

All articles are purely educational; they are not tailored to any particular individual or portfolio and do not constitute investment advice.

The retrace I wanted

IGV is one of the open positions on the board in this call. The overdue move I was waiting for is retracing, and it sits at the 50 percent level now, with earlier retraces along the way. Textbook so far: the chart is doing what I wanted it to do for this iron condor.

Ready to exit early

My base case is that IGV probably turns back up from here. Software is a strong uptrend, and it includes names like Palantir that people like to buy back into. That is why I need to be ready to exit early if it turns fast.

Why the broker shows flat

On this day the chart did exactly what I wanted, yet the broker shows a flat daily P/L. The reason is implied volatility. IV on IGV is rising together with the market, and that rise hides the gain in the daily number.

Give it a few days

So the rule I apply here: focus on the chart. I give it a few days, and I think the numbers usually catch up with what the chart is doing. The P/L on the screen lags the move; the chart is what I trade.

Every Wednesday, Elite Traders watch me run a real portfolio live, and one free lesson a week lands here.

🚨 Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past performance ≠ future results.

The trend-following funds are already as short of gold as they get, the central banks keep buying, and a softer dollar is the catalyst. That is the bounce this week's trade is built on: a call debit spread on GLD, the gold fund, into January.

The chart is not pretty. The pullback went through the 62 percent retrace, and a move that deep often double-bottoms first, so the stop sits below those lows. The spread buys the 400 call and sells the 430 call, 90 days of time, because a directional trade needs room.

Two days in, the position is down 1.2 percent, a nothing burger. The exit rules: out at a loss of 65 percent of the debit, about 361 in GLD, and the upside near 422 pays 167 percent. Lose 65, win 167.

Tuesday Target Live runs every Thursday on Zoom, free. The link comes with the free Tuesday Target email. Sign up and this week's trade and next Thursday's link come to you:

Read the letter: every number of the trade, free.

Education only. Nothing here is investment advice. Options carry risk, including the loss of the whole stake.

Today, 3:30 pm London, 10:30 am New York. Thirty minutes on this week's GLD trade, live on Zoom: where it stands, what has changed since Tuesday, your questions.

The Zoom link went out by email on Thursday morning to the free list. Sign up and next week's link comes to you too:

Read the letter if you missed it on Tuesday.

Education only. Nothing here is investment advice. Options carry risk, including the loss of the whole stake.

Session Recap

We opened by walking through the current names on the board: the UAL calendar spread that keeps misbehaving, IGV sitting in a textbook retrace, TLT bouncing back off a deep drawdown and XLE finishing its measured move to the upside. From there we previewed the new MacroDozer indicator for TradingView, worked through a member's USB Earnings Grenade question in detail, scanned the Boiler Room for December candidates and touched on the GLD Tuesday Target ahead of tomorrow's discussion.

The streamlined recording and the complete breakdown are below, for Elite Trader members. 👇

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United Airlines fell through the lower edge of our double calendar and the near options expire on Friday. The plan says close before that, win or lose, and we follow it.

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